Market Exploitation: Week 11
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s.
We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick ($6,400) at New York Giants
Two subpar performances have sunk Kaepernick’s DraftKings price to QB15 in Week 11, when he gets a crack at a Giants’ secondary that simply isn’t the same without the sidelined Prince Amukamara.
I wouldn’t put much stock in Russell Wilson’s meager Week 10 throwing output against Big Blue, as Seattle’s passing attack has been downright anemic for much of 2014. The 49ers’ aerial game, in my estimation, is a marked upgrade over the Seahawks.
Kaepernick, despite his recent struggles, maintains an FPAT of 0.47 – a shade higher than Drew Brees’ FPAT – and is just behind Tom Brady in fantasy points per drop back. In other words, he’s been an efficient producer.
While I don’t think Kaepernick has top-5 upside this week, a $900 price decrease is tough to ignore. I’m all for exploiting that price cut and the daily gaming public fear of Kaepernick after two shoddy performances.
One more note on Kaep: Vegas projects the Niners to score 24 points against the Giants’ mediocre defense, the fourth most of any away team.
Running Back
Jeremy Hill ($4,500) at New Orleans Saints
Hill shattered a million daily gaming hearts last Thursday against the Browns when the natural disaster than is Cincy’s offense forced the ball out of Hill’s hands in a juicy matchup. He also fumbled, which got him a spot on the pine.
Hill’s DraftKings salary subsequently took a $1,400 hit headed into Week 11. He now faces off against a New Orleans front seven allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. When teams aren’t scrambling to match Drew Brees and company score for score, the Saints can be had on the ground.
That’s a tall order, of course, making Hill nothing more than a (very) cheap tournament play in a game projected to see 50.5 points – the fourth highest over-under of Week 11. With Gio Bernard still sidelined at Bengals’ practice, it’s fairly certain that Hill will get something close to a featured role once again.
Give Hill – who should maintain goal line duties – around 15 touches in this one and I think he’ll easily meet his diminished price. Twenty-four running backs are pricier than Hill this week.
Wide Receiver
Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,800) at Chicago Bears
I had to will myself to write Patterson’s name in this space. He’s being outscored by Miles Austin through 10 weeks. He’s scoring an abominably low 0.16 fantasy points per snap, or what we in the industry like to call Justin Hunter Territory.
But here’s Patterson, his DraftKings salary cut by another $1,700, near the site’s minimum salary, among the wide receiver dregs in daily fantasy. However, a Patterson apologist would tell you that he had scored 9.2 and 15.6 fantasy points in the two outings before his 1.9-point debacle against Washington’s awful secondary. He was, of course, one sun-blocked deep ball from being among that week’s top-12 receivers.
Teddy Bridgewater, since taking over the Vikings’ sad excuse for an offense, has targeted Patterson 5.8 times per contest. I think that offers just enough hope to think Patterson can boom instead of bust against an unraveling Chicago secondary rated as Pro Football Focus’ fifth worst coverage unit. The Bears are allowing an incredible 12.1 yards per completion.
I wouldn’t stack Bridgewater and Patterson – I don’t think the rookie quarterback has an incredibly high ceiling here – but that doesn’t mean I won’t hold my nose and take a tournament flier on the receiver no one loves.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($4,000) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Yet another disappointing stat line from mini-Gronk lead to a $1,100 price cut, making Kelce DraftKings’ ninth priciest tight end option in Week 11. That reduction is primed for exploitation in a favorable matchup against a defense that will undoubtedly shut down every other aerial option for the ultra-conservative Chiefs.
Kelce is still scoring just about as many points per route run as Rob Gronkowski, though his usage remains the focus of our collective fantasy frustration. This could be the week – with Anthony Fasano nursing a knee injury – that Kelce rewards our diminishing patience. He plays a Seattle defense that has given up five or more receptions to tight ends five times in 2014. Tight ends have scored more than one touchdown against the Seahawks four times in nine games.
There’s simply no way Kansas City generates yards outside of force feeding Jamaal Charles and, hopefully, Kelce. I’d say his floor is as safe as it’s ever been and his ceiling is tremendous in Week 11. Kelce is custom made for tournament formats.