Market Exploitation: Week 12
Not even a riverboat gambler – an intoxicated riverboat gambler, even – would have played Coby Fleener in their Week 11 cash games. The Colts tight end everyone love to hate made a sensible tournament play, especially after a $500 dip in FanDuel salary that made him $1,000 cheaper than teammate Dwayne Allen.
Fleener, highlighted last week in this space, caught seven passes on seven targets for 144 yards against New England in Week 11 as the Patriots focused their defensive efforts on snuffing out T.Y Hilton and leaving Andrew Luck to throw to anyone but his most potent weapon.
Fleener’s fantasy floor was inarguably terrifying headed into Week 11, but his production is a reminder that massive daily fantasy price drops can move a player from hands-off to sneakily appealing.
Our other Week 11 exploitative plays, particularly Philip Rivers – who may or may not have a serious rib injury – and Vincent Jackson were big letdowns in favorable matchups. While Rivers’ FanDuel salary cut put him in a sort of DFS purgatory, VJax was exactly what we look for in this column.
It turns out old man Josh McCown only has eyes for Mike Evans, and really, who can blame him?
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s.
We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick ($7,300) vs. Washington
Kaepernick, after a $100 FanDuel price tag cut following a 14.12-point performance against a depleted Giants’ secondary, has a chance to benefit from Washington’s inside-out collapse in Week 12.
He’s not the site’s 17th priciest quarterback, priced lower than the likes of Kyle Orton and Michael Vick, and he gets his crack at a Washington defense ranked by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s second worst pass coverage. PFF rates Washington as the league’s fourth worst defense, and for good reason.
A top-10 unit in rushing yards allowed per contest, Washington is being put to shame through the air, giving up a 64.6 percent completion rate and two touchdown tosses per game. I think Kaep has top-7 upside in this one.
Running Back
Terrance West ($6,100) at Atlanta Falcons
Some of the fantasy smoke has cleared from the hodgepodge of Cleveland’s backfield after the release of malcontent running back Ben Tate left West and Isaiah Crowell as the remaining members of the team’s backfield committee.
West’s $500 FanDuel price reduction makes him the 31st most expensive back for Week 12 – a price cut that makes sense after he saw five carries for 12 yards in Week 11, just a week after he took 26 totes for 94 yards and a score. Maybe, just maybe, we can bank on more reliable usage out of West (and Crowell) against a Falcons’ front seven being beaten like a drum by opposing running attacks.
Atlanta is allowing 122.2 rushing yards per game at four yards a carry. A word of caution on going all in on the Cleveland backfield: Since center Alex Mack’s season-ending injury, West’s per-carry average has plummeted from 4.35 to 2.98, per daily fantasy writer Chris Raybon. Crowell’s YPC, meanwhile, has fallen from a healthy 5.39 to 3.56.
Crowell’s FanDuel price jumped $300 to $5,500 after he got that start last week against Houston, making him the Browns runner who will likely find his way into an inordinate number of Week 12 lineups. It’s impossible to know what the carry distribution will be like, but I think West represents the against-the-grain play at a very reasonable cost against a soft front seven.
Wide Receiver
Percy Harvin ($6,400) at Buffalo Bills
I loath to feature Harvin in this space because, well, if we know one thing about Harving, it’s that he doesn’t score touchdowns. He’s a classic creature of volume – like any gadget player — and volume is precisely what he’s getting in New York.
Harvin has seven, nine, and 11 touches in three games since being banished to the wasteland that is the Jets. His FanDuel price plunged by an eye-popping $1,200 this week, making him the site’s 39th priciest receiver.
The matchup against Buffalo isn’t the most appealing, as the Bills’ secondary allows just 20.5 fantasy points per game to wideouts. They shut down the Jets’ passing offense in Week 8, but that was against Geno Smith. Michael Vick, somehow, has looked downright functional during his stint as New York’s starter.
Harvin’s floor is helped by his average of 3.6 carries for 23 yards as a Jet. After a disappointing output against a bad Pittsburgh secondary a couple weeks ago, we can expect Harvin’s ownership to be very low in Week 12. I’m willing to take a chance on a guy priced as a WR3 who could easily see a dozen touches against a mediocre pass defense.
Tight End
Mychal Rivera ($5,600) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Among the more surprising stats of 2014: Since Week 7, Rivera is fantasy’s No. 3 tight end, only eight fantasy points behind Jimmy Graham. He’s been targeted heavily during that stretch, seeing 6.3 targets per game from Derek Carr. That’s all we can ask for from a tight end not named Graham or Gronk.
Rivera’s $200 FanDuel price drop is likely due to his disappointing Week 11 stat line, as he snagged three of five targets for 40 yards against the Chargers.
Kansas City is neither great nor poor in defending tight ends. They allow 7.5 points per week to tight ends. They’ve also given up at least one score in seven games. In a game that could see Carr throw it more than 35 times – Oakland has no chance of establishing any sort of run game against the Chiefs’ front seven – I think Rivera could see a good number of targets.
And even better for those who look to exploit fear and inefficiencies: Rivera is coming off a poor game that likely let down more than a few daily gamers.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Kyle Orton ($5,600) vs. New York Jets
Orton’s DraftKings salary has dropped for a second straight week, this time by $200, as he’s set to take on the reliably generous Gang Green coverage unit. It was just a few weeks ago that Orton posted 26.12 fantasy points on just 10 completions — an unbelievably efficient day.
I’m going to keep an eye on the apocalyptic weather in Buffalo this weekend, but if winds aren’t too bad, I think Orton makes for a bit-time upside play as the site’s 25th priciest signal caller. The Jets are giving up a 64.7 percent completion rate to opposing passers. Don’t be scared off by Orton’s performance against a tough-as-nails Miami defense in Week 11. I think it’s a great chance to take advantage of public fear of Orton and a price cut that puts him below Kirk Cousins.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy ($6,200) vs. Tennessee Titans
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Shady McCoy is on the verge of a breakout game — one that’ll remind of us the Shady glory of yesteryear.
McCoy has continually disappointed faithful daily gamers in 2014, even against some of the softest run defenses the NFL has to offer. McCoy is averaging a meager 12.1 DraftKings points per week through the middle of November.
The Eagles take on a Tennessee front seven that has proven increasingly vulnerable to running attacks, as we saw on Monday night when Le’Veon Bell embarrassed the Titans for more than 200 yards and a touchdown. Only the Raiders see more running plays against them on a weekly basis, as Tennessee is now allowing 4.4 yards per tote. Pro Football Focus ranks the Titans as the league’s worst run defense.
Week 12 represents yet another chance to take advantage of a McCoy price tag reduction and public disdain for the one-time fantasy deity who hasn’t taken full advantage of favorable matchups.
Wide Receiver
Vincent Jackson ($5,200) at Chicago Bears
I refuse to give up on VJax this season, despite the emergence of Mike Evans as the clear cut No. 1 option in Tampa. Jackson’s salary dipped this week by $400, bringing him to WR29 in DraftKings pricing. I think VJax can be a top-15 option in a nice matchup with a Chicago defense that has been ripped by functioning aerial attacks.
PFF rates the Bears’ secondary as the NFL’s fifth worst coverage unit, with the team’s starting cornerbacks rated as the 47th and 64th best cover guys through 11 weeks. And VJax is certainly not lacking for opportunity: his 92 targets rank sixth among all wide receivers. His lack of efficiency is a touch on the disturbing side, but I think he’s well worth the play after yet another price cut on DraftKings.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($4,000) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
It’s not often that a tight end averaging 14.7 fantasy points will be available for a mere $4,000. That’s precisely what we have this week with the Unicorn, whose DraftKings salary dropped by an incredible $1,600 — the biggest salary drop among tight ends for Week 12.
The salary plunge comes on the heels of a seven-point outing against Minnesota. Bennett has posted double-digit fantasy points not once, not twice, but nine times this season. He’s only scored one touchdown over his past seven games — largely explaining the daily fantasy price drop — but remember that he’s taking on a Tampa defense that has given up five or more tight end receptions in seven 2014 contests.
A recent cold streak and a giant price drop make Bennett a sensible play for those looking to exploit public perception and price reductions. Bennett is about half the price of this week’s elite tight end plays.