Market Exploitation: Week 12
Taking advantage of undervalued players in critical to daily fantasy success on DraftKings. CDCarter helps you pinpoint the best options for Week 12 as he looks to help readers beat the market.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Kyle Orton ($5,600) vs. New York Jets
Orton’s DraftKings salary has dropped for a second straight week, this time by $200, as he’s set to take on the reliably generous Gang Green coverage unit. It was just a few weeks ago that Orton posted 26.12 fantasy points on just 10 completions — an unbelievably efficient day.
I’m going to keep an eye on the apocalyptic weather in Buffalo this weekend, but if winds aren’t too bad, I think Orton makes for a bit-time upside play as the site’s 25th priciest signal caller. The Jets are giving up a 64.7 percent completion rate to opposing passers. Don’t be scared off by Orton’s performance against a tough-as-nails Miami defense in Week 11. I think it’s a great chance to take advantage of public fear of Orton and a price cut that puts him below Kirk Cousins.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy ($6,200) vs. Tennessee Titans
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Shady McCoy is on the verge of a breakout game — one that’ll remind of us the Shady glory of yesteryear.
McCoy has continually disappointed faithful daily gamers in 2014, even against some of the softest run defenses the NFL has to offer. McCoy is averaging a meager 12.1 DraftKings points per week through the middle of November.
The Eagles take on a Tennessee front seven that has proven increasingly vulnerable to running attacks, as we saw on Monday night when Le’Veon Bell embarrassed the Titans for more than 200 yards and a touchdown. Only the Raiders see more running plays against them on a weekly basis, as Tennessee is now allowing 4.4 yards per tote. Pro Football Focus ranks the Titans as the league’s worst run defense.
Week 12 represents yet another chance to take advantage of a McCoy price tag reduction and public disdain for the one-time fantasy deity who hasn’t taken full advantage of favorable matchups.
Wide Receiver
Vincent Jackson ($5,200) at Chicago Bears
I refuse to give up on VJax this season, despite the emergence of Mike Evans as the clear cut No. 1 option in Tampa. Jackson’s salary dipped this week by $400, bringing him to WR29 in DraftKings pricing. I think VJax can be a top-15 option in a nice matchup with a Chicago defense that has been ripped by functioning aerial attacks.
PFF rates the Bears’ secondary as the NFL’s fifth worst coverage unit, with the team’s starting cornerbacks rated as the 47th and 64th best cover guys through 11 weeks. And VJax is certainly not lacking for opportunity: his 92 targets rank sixth among all wide receivers. His lack of efficiency is a touch on the disturbing side, but I think he’s well worth the play after yet another price cut on DraftKings.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($4,000) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
It’s not often that a tight end averaging 14.7 fantasy points will be available for a mere $4,000. That’s precisely what we have this week with the Unicorn, whose DraftKings salary dropped by an incredible $1,600 — the biggest salary drop among tight ends for Week 12.
The salary plunge comes on the heels of a seven-point outing against Minnesota. Bennett has posted double-digit fantasy points not once, not twice, but nine times this season. He’s only scored one touchdown over his past seven games — largely explaining the daily fantasy price drop — but remember that he’s taking on a Tampa defense that has given up five or more tight end receptions in seven 2014 contests.
A recent cold streak and a giant price drop make Bennett a sensible play for those looking to exploit public perception and price reductions. Bennett is about half the price of this week’s elite tight end plays.