Market Exploitation: Week 13
Colin Kaepernick, with the magic of hindsight, wasn’t a classic exploitative play in Week 12, but rather a value trap.
Writing this column last Wednesday morning, I saw an investment in Kaepernick – whose FanDuel salary had dipped by $100 – as a chance to be greedy when others were fearful. The quarterback’s relatively high Week 12 ownership numbers showed that he did not, in fact, fit that exploitative bill.
Going in on Kaepernick was being greedy when others were, well, greedy.
Meanwhile, Terrance West – highlighted last week in this space – saw a hefty 15 touches against a leaky Atlanta front seven, but managed just 7.6 FanDuel points as Isaiah Crowell converted two touchdowns on 14 touches.
There are plenty of FanDuel and DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 13, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 13 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Andy Dalton ($8,000) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If there’s one thing fantasy footballers know about Dalton, it’s that the red-haired signal calling wonder is untouchable when matched up against tough defenses, but a potentially elite play against the NFL’s most generous secondaries.
The Bucs, in case you missed it, are horrendous in the secondary, giving up a 67.9 percent completion rate and 252.3 yards per game to opposing passers. That completion percentage is outrageously high, and it gives any quarterback a decidedly high floor against Tampa.
Dalton, against bottom-half secondaries, have notched 3.9 more fantasy points per contest than he has against top-half defenses. That’s hardly insignificant. A.J. Green and Mohammed Sanu could feast on Tampa’s secondary, as the Bucs’ cornerbacks are rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s 48th and 59th best cover guys
After a $200 price tag drop, Dalton is FanDuel’s 13th priciest quarterback. I think he has top-5 upside, as the NFL Vegas odds project the Bengals to score 24.25 points against that occasionally disastrous Tampa defense.
Running Back
Joique Bell ($6,300) vs. Chicago Bears
The hope here is that daily gamers will be scared away by usage questions surrounding the Lions’ best running back. Bell’s carries have been spotty, even when Reggie Bush is out of the lineup.
This is the week to capitalize on that fear. Bell’s FanDuel salary fell by $400 after a disappointing Week 12 output against the Patriots, making him the site’s 31st-most expensive runner. I see Bell as a potential RB1 with a RB3 price tag.
Lack of touchdown production has been the driver behind Bell’s consistent FanDuel price plunge, as the back hasn’t found the end zone since mid-October (and only three times all season). He now gets to take on a banged-up Bears’ front seven allowing 4.3 yards per tote and seeing 25.5 rushes attempted against them every week.
Going in on Bell this week requires some belief that Detroit will simply overpower the sinking, fiery ship that is Marc Trestman’s team on Turkey Day. A Detroit lead fatter than said turkey will lead to a nice workload for Bell, who has seen carries come his way this season when the Lions have nursed second half leads.
Wide Receiver
DeSean Jackson ($7,600) at Indianapolis Colts
There’s no better feeling than investing in a player on one of the most dysfunctional NFL teams in recent memory. Jackson’s FanDuel price fell by $400 after he posted 4.9 fantasy points against the 49ers in Week 12.
His Week 13 price, however, doesn’t account for an upgrade at quarterback in Washington. Robert Griffin III was officially sent to the pine on Tuesday, making Colt McCoy the starter against the Colts. It’s the same McCoy who connected with DJax six times for 136 yards last month against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Jackson saw a team-high seven targets that night.
My one concern for DJax this week is that he’ll see quite a bit of shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis – PFF’s second-rated cornerback after 12 weeks. I still think DJax is worth the play. Indianapolis is projected to put up 30.75 points against Washington, meaning McCoy will likely have to put it up early and often in this one. And with Jackson, all it takes is one deep shot.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($5,100) vs. Denver Broncos
Kelce, after two straight hideous stat lines, showed signs of fantasy life in Week 12 thanks in large part to the Chiefs being forced to try to score points in the face of a second-half deficit.
He finished with 67 yards on four catches against Oakland. The last meeting between the Chiefs and Broncos saw Kelce snatch four passes for 81 yards as Kansas City did as so many teams have done and attacked Denver’s defense via the tight end. The Broncos have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends in 2014, and tight ends have topped five receptions against Denver seven times in 11 games.
Kelce and professional vulture Anthony Fasano combined for eight catches and 130 yards against the Broncos when these teams met in September. Kelce ran a meager 23 pas routes in that contest – a total he should easily eclipse in the rematch.
Try to wrap your degenerate mind around this: Kelce is a top-10 fantasy tight end despite seeing just 52 targets through 12 weeks, or 30 fewer than Martellus Bennett. The point here is that Kelce doesn’t require much to put up a big, fat stat line. I think he has as good a chance to blow up in Week 13 as he has had all year.
Kelce is FanDuel’s 15th-priciest tight end after a $100 price drop.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Drew Stanton ($5,000) at Atlanta Falcons
Deploying Stanton this week is neither for the feint of heart or for daily gamers with acid reflux issues. In fact, if you go this route, be sure to not watch the Cardinals-Falcons tilt and just look at the box score on Sunday night. You’ll live longer.
This is purely a matchup play after Stanton’s DraftKings salary dropped by $500 after a predictably terrible outing against the Seahawks. Arizona’s signal caller is now available for the low, low price of $5,000 – cheaper than any starting quarterback in Week 13. Stanton is almost half the price of this week’s elite quarterback options.
The Falcons, rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s third worst pass defense, have given up 284.2 passing yards per game through 12 weeks, more than any other defense. And here’s what intrigues me about Stanton as a Week 13 tourney option: Atlanta allows 12.8 yards per completion, meaning they’ve been gouged for more than a few big plays through the air. If Stanton can do one thing, it’s chucking the ball downfield with reckless abandon. Those puzzle pieces fit.
Vegas projects the Cardinals to score 23.5 points against the Falcons. That’s not terribly high, but it gives me some hope that Stanton can toss a couple touchdowns in this one. Remember: Stanton managed 20.84 fantasy points against he Lions in Week 11 and 19.36 points against San Francisco in Week 3.
Running Back
Lamar Miller ($4,500) vs. New York Jets
Miller is an exploitative play on DraftKings for a couple reasons: His salary took a $200 hit after Week 12 and he goes up against a Jets’ front seven considered by many daily gamers to be a hands-off unit.
But maybe, just maybe, the matchup isn’t as hideous as it appears on paper. While only three defenses allow fewer rushing yards per game to opponents, Gang Green has shown some vulnerability against the run over the past month.
The Chiefs managed 113 yards on 24 carries at home against the Jets, while the Chargers piled up 150 rushing yards against Gang Green in San Diego. Buffalo had rushing success last week against he Jets, eclipsing 100 yards and scoring twice on the ground.
Take away Miller’s dud against Detroit – a game in which the runner was injured – and he’s notching 14.3 DraftKings points per week in 2014. He’s priced as a low-end RB3 and despite the bad matchup, I see him as a viable high-end RB2.
Wide Receiver
Jeremy Maclin ($6,800) at Dallas Cowboys
Maclin’s DraftKings price fell off the proverbial cliff after Week 12, dropping by $1,100 and making him the site’s 14th most expensive receiver. Maclin has had two less-than-stellar lines over the past three weeks, and hasn’t appeared to be the passing game focal point he was with Nick Foles under center in Philadelphia.
Dallas sports PFF’s 19th-ranked pass coverage unit, as a national audience saw last week just how generous the Cowboys’ cornerbacks and safeties could be when Odell Bekcham, Jr. roasted them on a spit. If Maclin can escape the shadow of Orlando Scandrick – PFF’s seventh best cover corner – I think he could be a to-flight play in a game Vegas projects to be Week 13’s second highest scoring affair.
Maclin has seen an average of eight targets per game with Mark Sanchez at the helm of Chip Kelly’s offense. It’s not a fantastic share of the team’s targets, but it’s good enough to put up big numbers against a burnable Dallas back end.
The Cowboys are giving up 11.1 yards per completion too. Only eight teams allow more yards for every completion. I think there’s sufficient public fear of Maclin to make him a dandy exploitative play this week.
Tight End
Charles Clay ($3,400) at New York Jets
DraftKings cut Clay’s salary by a hefty $600 after he missed Week 12’s tilt at Denver – a reduction that puts him in the price range of Brent Celek and Jace Amaro. He costs about 40 percent as much as this week’s top-end tight ends.
Tight ends have managed five touchdowns against the Swiss cheese Jets’ secondary over the past four games, and 12 total touchdowns against Gang Green in 2014. Only Chicago gives up more production to opposing tight ends.
Clay has taken on a more prominent role in the Dolphins’ offense over the past month after a terribly slow start to 2014. He’s seen at least five targets in five of his past six games. I don’t think Clay needs much more opportunity than that to be worth the investment in Week 13 tournaments.
Clay, if healthy for Monday night’s game, has all the potential to finish Week 13 as a top-5 play.