Market Exploitation: Week 13
We’ll be using the Market Watch tool to help us exploit the price inefficiencies this week.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Drew Stanton ($5,000) at Atlanta Falcons
Deploying Stanton this week is neither for the feint of heart or for daily gamers with acid reflux issues. In fact, if you go this route, be sure to not watch the Cardinals-Falcons tilt and just look at the box score on Sunday night. You’ll live longer.
This is purely a matchup play after Stanton’s DraftKings salary dropped by $500 after a predictably terrible outing against the Seahawks. Arizona’s signal caller is now available for the low, low price of $5,000 – cheaper than any starting quarterback in Week 13. Stanton is almost half the price of this week’s elite quarterback options.
The Falcons, rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s third worst pass defense, have given up 284.2 passing yards per game through 12 weeks, more than any other defense. And here’s what intrigues me about Stanton as a Week 13 tourney option: Atlanta allows 12.8 yards per completion, meaning they’ve been gouged for more than a few big plays through the air. If Stanton can do one thing, it’s chucking the ball downfield with reckless abandon. Those puzzle pieces fit.
Vegas projects the Cardinals to score 23.5 points against the Falcons. That’s not terribly high, but it gives me some hope that Stanton can toss a couple touchdowns in this one. Remember: Stanton managed 20.84 fantasy points against he Lions in Week 11 and 19.36 points against San Francisco in Week 3.
Running Back
Lamar Miller ($4,500) vs. New York Jets
Miller is an exploitative play on DraftKings for a couple reasons: His salary took a $200 hit after Week 12 and he goes up against a Jets’ front seven considered by many daily gamers to be a hands-off unit.
But maybe, just maybe, the matchup isn’t as hideous as it appears on paper. While only three defenses allow fewer rushing yards per game to opponents, Gang Green has shown some vulnerability against the run over the past month.
The Chiefs managed 113 yards on 24 carries at home against the Jets, while the Chargers piled up 150 rushing yards against Gang Green in San Diego. Buffalo had rushing success last week against he Jets, eclipsing 100 yards and scoring twice on the ground.
Take away Miller’s dud against Detroit – a game in which the runner was injured – and he’s notching 14.3 DraftKings points per week in 2014. He’s priced as a low-end RB3 and despite the bad matchup, I see him as a viable high-end RB2.
Wide Receiver
Jeremy Maclin ($6,800) at Dallas Cowboys
Maclin’s DraftKings price fell off the proverbial cliff after Week 12, dropping by $1,100 and making him the site’s 14th most expensive receiver. Maclin has had two less-than-stellar lines over the past three weeks, and hasn’t appeared to be the passing game focal point he was with Nick Foles under center in Philadelphia.
Dallas sports PFF’s 19th-ranked pass coverage unit, as a national audience saw last week just how generous the Cowboys’ cornerbacks and safeties could be when Odell Bekcham, Jr. roasted them on a spit. If Maclin can escape the shadow of Orlando Scandrick – PFF’s seventh best cover corner – I think he could be a to-flight play in a game Vegas projects to be Week 13’s second highest scoring affair.
Maclin has seen an average of eight targets per game with Mark Sanchez at the helm of Chip Kelly’s offense. It’s not a fantastic share of the team’s targets, but it’s good enough to put up big numbers against a burnable Dallas back end.
The Cowboys are giving up 11.1 yards per completion too. Only eight teams allow more yards for every completion. I think there’s sufficient public fear of Maclin to make him a dandy exploitative play this week.
Tight End
Charles Clay ($3,400) at New York Jets
DraftKings cut Clay’s salary by a hefty $600 after he missed Week 12’s tilt at Denver – a reduction that puts him in the price range of Brent Celek and Jace Amaro. He costs about 40 percent as much as this week’s top-end tight ends.
Tight ends have managed five touchdowns against the Swiss cheese Jets’ secondary over the past four games, and 12 total touchdowns against Gang Green in 2014. Only Chicago gives up more production to opposing tight ends.
Clay has taken on a more prominent role in the Dolphins’ offense over the past month after a terribly slow start to 2014. He’s seen at least five targets in five of his past six games. I don’t think Clay needs much more opportunity than that to be worth the investment in Week 13 tournaments.
Clay, if healthy for Monday night’s game, has all the potential to finish Week 13 as a top-5 play.