Market Exploitation: Week 14
Two touchdowns never hurt, of course, but regardless of those scores, Joique Bell was a prototype for what we look for in this exploitative space.
There was more than a little fear surrounding the Detroit runner headed into his Thanksgiving tilt with the Bears. A few letdown performances as the Lions’ lead back created a prime opportunity to pounce on a significant price drop that left Bell outside the top-30 running backs on FanDuel in Week 13.
One hundred and seventeen yards and two touchdowns later, Bell was the week’s fourth highest scoring running back.
DeSean Jackson also fit the exploitative bill nicely, and delivered on our greed in the face of Colt McCoy-induced fear with 16.9 FanDuel points as Washington played two and half quarters of garbage time.
Andy Dalton, who was reportedly vomiting just hours before kickoff, had a lot in common with those who deployed him after reading about his Week 13 matchup in this space. He was a borderline disaster, as was Travis Kelce, who has, quite sadly, turned into nothing more than a Hail Mary play in any fantasy format.
There are plenty of FanDuel and DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 14, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 14 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($8,500) at Philadelphia Eagles
I know Wilson doesn’t fit the exploitative play mold all that well. It’s not like he’s headed into Week 14 on the heels of a couple disastrous performances. Wilson has, however, failed to crack the 17-point mark in three of his past six outings.
There’s real fear out there in Daily Gaming Land that Seattle’s signal caller is an unreliable option prone to middling performances in good matchups. That’s why he’s highlighted in this space.
Wilson’s FanDuel salary dropped by $200 after Week 13, making him the site’s seventh highest priced quarterback. Hardly a discount, I know. Here’s the rub: I see Wilson as a guy with top-3 potential against a Philly defense that has given up at least 18 fantasy points to quarterbacks eight times in 2014. Only five defenses see more passes thrown against them per game, and the Eagles allow an eye-popping 12.2 yards per completion.
Wilson comes with the added benefit of 57 rushing yards per game, offering a nice cushion when he’s unable to get anything going with Seattle’s replacement-level pass catching crew. I see him as an arbitrage play on elite quarterback plays in a game Vegas projects as Week 14’s fifth highest scoring affair.
Running Back
Shane Vereen ($5,900) at San Diego Chargers
It’s always fun to trust a guy who has seen 25 touches over the past three weeks, isn’t it?
Deploying Vereen is plainly and simply a low-cost investment in a game Vegas expects to be one of the week’s highest scoring contests. New England is expected to score 27.25 points in this one, making Vereen’s $700 FanDuel price plunge noteworthy.
Only three running backs have more targets than Vereen through 13 weeks. He’s seen a healthy amount of aerial action in the Patriots’ highest scoring games, which we’re hoping for in Week 14. He comes with a terrifying fantasy floor, no doubt, but I can guarantee that there will be no greed this week in the Vereen market. Only fear.
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin ($7,500) at New Orleans Saints
We’re once again looking to Benjamin for garbage time points in a game that could get very ugly, very quickly.
The Panthers are an abomination and they’re playing in the hostile Superdome in a game the Saints need. Benjamin was almost shut out that last time these teams met thanks to Cam Newton’s mind-blowing inaccuracy, so this play requires some faith in Newton’s viability as a thrower. A tough argument to make, I know. The rookie receiver flat out beat stud Saints corner Keenan Lewis a few times, but Newton failed to connect.
I’d be much more bullish on Benjamin if Derek Anderson were Carolina’s starter. There, I said it.
Benjamin’s FanDuel price tag was reduced by $400 since Week 13’s disappointing performance. He’s now the site’s 20th most expensive receiver. I think Benjamin, fantasy’s 10th most targeted wideout, has a clear shot at top-10 upside in this one.
Tight End
Jason Witten ($5,500) at Chicago Bears
Witten’s FanDuel price was cut by another $200 after his stat line fell victim to the disaster that was Tony Romo on Thanksgiving. Witten managed one catch for eight yards in a prime matchup against Philadelphia.
Witten, running more like a dad every week, still has a lot of appeal if Romo can get back to the form he showed against the Giants two short weeks ago. Witten had notched more than nine fantasy points in all four of his games before the Thanksgiving massacre.
Teams that have recognized how bad the Bears are against tight ends have done quite well. The Patriots, kings of identifying favorable matchups, saw their tight ends rack up 16 receptions for 210 yards and four scores against the Bears last month. The Dolphins, Panthers, and Packers did the same, tormenting Chicago with their various tight ends. Only the Colts allow more fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
I’m going to be greedy on Witten, FanDuel’s 10th priciest tight end option. He provides salary cap relief and upside in a plus matchup against Chicago.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez ($6,300) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy football’s eighth highest scoring quarterback over the past four weeks is the 17th priciest signal caller on DraftKings after a massive $500 price tag reduction.
I get it: Daily gamers shouldn’t get cute with Seattle’s secondary. Public fear of Sanchez and the Eagles’ passing game will abound this week, making him an ideal exploitative option in tournaments.
And perhaps the Seahawks are not the quarterback killers they once were. They’re giving up a 64.3 percent completion rating to opposing quarterbacks (19th in the NFL) and Vegas projects the Eagles to put up 25 points against Richard Sherman and company. I think that offers reasonable hope that Sanchez could deliver and prove a major Week 14 value — and one hardly anyone will deploy.
Writer’s Note: No RBs fit the bill this week, so I have included two receivers instead.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans ($6,700) at Detroit Lions
I’m a touch obsessed with Evans as a prime exploitative play in a game that will see the Bucs throw a lot against a Detroit defense that will suffocate Tampa’s nonexistent ground attack.
Even in a quiet Week 13 performance, Evans got plenty of downfield looks from Josh McCown, who clearly trusts the rookie against any coverage, at any point in the game. Evans, fantasy’s top receiver since McCown returned from injury, is averaging almost nine targets a game during the stretch. His opportunity isn’t going anywhere, even in this bad matchup against the Lions.
More than 65 percent of plays called against Detroit this year have been passes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs crack the 75-percent mark in this one. Evans’ $600 price reduction makes him DraftKings’ 17th highest priced receiver this week.
T.Y. Hilton ($8,000) at Cleveland Browns
Hilton’s DraftKings salary fell by a mere $100 this week. It’s the public fear of Hilton going toe to toe with cornerback Joe Haden that we’re capitalizing on in Week 14.
Haden is Pro Football Focus’ sixth-rated cornerback over the past month, though he’s PFF’s 39th best corner over the first 13 weeks of the 2014 season. Full health, of course, has been the difference for Haden. Outside of a matchup against New England in which Patriots coaches planned around shutting down Hilton first and foremost, the shifty top-9 fantasy receiver has been daily fantasy money in 2014. He’s averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per week.
The Colts are projected by Vegas to score 26.5 points against the Browns. I’ll bet Hilton is somehow, someway, involved in that total. Take advantage of daily gamers’ fear of Haden’s shadow.
Tight End
Greg Olsen ($4,900) at New Orleans Saints
Only two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett, have seen more targets than Olsen in 2014. And after a $400 price cut on DraftKings, Olsen is available for third-tier tight end pricing in Week 14.
Olsen has notched double-digit fantasy points eight times this season, with a couple gaudy stat lines sprinkled in when Cam Newton is able to deliver it to his most reliable pass catcher.
Olsen is a volume play here, as the Saints are the second best team against tight ends in 2014. They’ve held tight ends to three or fewer receptions six times in 12 games — a fairly remarkable feat. That, combined with the Panthers likely being forced to the air early and often against the Saints, makes Olsen almost irresistible to me.