Market Exploitation: Week 14
How can we best take advantage of the market inefficiencies for Week 14? We’ll refer to the Market Watch tool to locate our top picks of the weekend.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez ($6,300) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy football’s eighth highest scoring quarterback over the past four weeks is the 17th priciest signal caller on DraftKings after a massive $500 price tag reduction.
I get it: Daily gamers shouldn’t get cute with Seattle’s secondary. Public fear of Sanchez and the Eagles’ passing game will abound this week, making him an ideal exploitative option in tournaments.
And perhaps the Seahawks are not the quarterback killers they once were. They’re giving up a 64.3 percent completion rating to opposing quarterbacks (19th in the NFL) and Vegas projects the Eagles to put up 25 points against Richard Sherman and company. I think that offers reasonable hope that Sanchez could deliver and prove a major Week 14 value — and one hardly anyone will deploy.
Writer’s Note: No RBs fit the bill this week, so I have included two receivers instead.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans ($6,700) at Detroit Lions
I’m a touch obsessed with Evans as a prime exploitative play in a game that will see the Bucs throw a lot against a Detroit defense that will suffocate Tampa’s nonexistent ground attack.
Even in a quiet Week 13 performance, Evans got plenty of downfield looks from Josh McCown, who clearly trusts the rookie against any coverage, at any point in the game. Evans, fantasy’s top receiver since McCown returned from injury, is averaging almost nine targets a game during the stretch. His opportunity isn’t going anywhere, even in this bad matchup against the Lions.
More than 65 percent of plays called against Detroit this year have been passes. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs crack the 75-percent mark in this one. Evans’ $600 price reduction makes him DraftKings’ 17th highest priced receiver this week.
T.Y. Hilton ($8,000) at Cleveland Browns
Hilton’s DraftKings salary fell by a mere $100 this week. It’s the public fear of Hilton going toe to toe with cornerback Joe Haden that we’re capitalizing on in Week 14.
Haden is Pro Football Focus’ sixth-rated cornerback over the past month, though he’s PFF’s 39th best corner over the first 13 weeks of the 2014 season. Full health, of course, has been the difference for Haden. Outside of a matchup against New England in which Patriots coaches planned around shutting down Hilton first and foremost, the shifty top-9 fantasy receiver has been daily fantasy money in 2014. He’s averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per week.
The Colts are projected by Vegas to score 26.5 points against the Browns. I’ll bet Hilton is somehow, someway, involved in that total. Take advantage of daily gamers’ fear of Haden’s shadow.
Tight End
Greg Olsen ($4,900) at New Orleans Saints
Only two tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett, have seen more targets than Olsen in 2014. And after a $400 price cut on DraftKings, Olsen is available for third-tier tight end pricing in Week 14.
Olsen has notched double-digit fantasy points eight times this season, with a couple gaudy stat lines sprinkled in when Cam Newton is able to deliver it to his most reliable pass catcher.
Olsen is a volume play here, as the Saints are the second best team against tight ends in 2014. They’ve held tight ends to three or fewer receptions six times in 12 games — a fairly remarkable feat. That, combined with the Panthers likely being forced to the air early and often against the Saints, makes Olsen almost irresistible to me.