Market Exploitation: Week 15
Russell Wilson last week showed the power of a high fantasy floor, turning a decent passing performance into a top-3 outing with (fairly predictable) rushing production.
Wilson, pegged as an ideal exploitative play in this space, rushed 10 times for 48 yards and a score against an Eagles’ defense that has bled fantasy points to opposing passers in 2014.
Wilson’s 29.32-point outing came on the heels of a FanDuel price drop that left him outside the top-10 priciest quarterback plays. He was exactly what we look for in this space.
Kelvin Benjamin, another player whose Week 14 FanDuel salary had dropped, turned two grabs into 9.4 points against the Saints. He was a victim of game flow, however, as Carolina cruised to victory against the team formerly known as the Saints.
There are plenty of FanDuel and DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 15, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 15 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez ($7,500) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sanchez in Week 15 is exactly what we seek in reduced salaries. His FanDuel price dropped by $200 after a mostly horrendous Week 14 showing against a brutal Seattle secondary, and he takes on one of the NFL’s most porous defenses on Sunday.
Sanchez had averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game as Chip Kelly’s starter before his clunker against the Seahawks. I’d be bowled over if he doesn’t eclipse that average this week against a Cowboys’ defense he roasted for 21.48 points on Thanksgiving, despite the Eagles taking the air out of the football for the final quarter and a half of a blowout.
Pro Football Focus rates Dallas as the 11th worst pass coverage unit, and a bottom-half defense overall through 14 weeks. The Vegas odds project Philadelphia to put up 29 points in this one. Sanchez will most certainly be in the thick of that scoring.
He’s FanDuel’s 17th highest priced quarterback with a ceiling that, in my estimation, could put him among the week’s five best quarterback plays.
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount ($6,500) vs. Miami Dolphins
Blount has 43 carries in three games since forcing his way out of Mike Tomlin World and back to New England. I see him as a much more reliable weekly option than backfield mate Shane Vereen.
Blount’s FanDuel price has dropped by $200 going into Week 15, making him the site’s 25th priciest running back option. And if history is any indication – it isn’t always in New England – the Patriots will look to exploit a weakening Miami run defense that has allowed 133.8 rushing yards per game on the road in 2014. The Dolphins are a bottom-5 run defense away from Miami.
Blount once again got goal line work last week against the Chargers. He was mostly unlucky not to notch a touchdown. His FanDuel salary cut reflects that touchdown-less effort, and I plan on exploiting that in a lot of Week 15 tournaments.
Blount is priced as a high-end RB3 with clear RB1 potential.
Wide Receiver
Donte Moncrief ($5,700) vs. Houston Texans
I suppose Moncrief will be widely owned in daily fantasy this week if and when Reggie Wayne is declared out, or if coaches say the veteran will be limited against Houston.
Moncrief saw his FanDuel cost reduced by $300 on the heels of a disappointing line against Cleveland. He caught three passes for 33 yards, but continued to play ahead of Hakeem Nicks, proving that there is, in fact, room for sanity in NFL decision making.
Moncrief, despite being stuck in Indy’s No. 3 receiver role, has proven wildly efficient in limited opportunities. The takeaway: It only takes one with Moncrief.
No team, when adjusted for strength of schedule, allows more fantasy production to opposing wide receivers than the Texans. The rookie wideout’s floor remains a tad scary, but his ceiling is tremendous in this one.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham ($6,900) at Chicago Bears
If we look to buy when there’s blood on the streets, Graham is the best investment we’ve had all season. The streets of Graham’s DFS value and perception are drenched in blood.
Graham’s last four FanDuel outputs: 4.4 points, 19.7 points, zero points, 4 points. What was once an ultra-safe investment is now – seemingly – a roll of the dice. He has eclipsed 70 receiving yards just twice in the past nine weeks.
Graham’s FanDuel price tag dropped by $200 after last week’s debacle against Carolina. He’s now $700 less than Rob Gronkowski. That doesn’t represent a giant discount on Graham until you consider that no team is worse against tight ends than the Bears.
Chicago’s linebackers are rated by PFF as the league’s 31st and 52nd best cover linebackers. Neither of the team’s safeties are rated as top-40 cover guys, and it’s shown: Chicago is allowing 5.2 receptions and .88 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends.
Graham has admitted that his arm injury has hampered his performance, but after a price drop and pervasive public fear following a strong of horrific stat lines, I can’t turn down an exploitative play on an elite tight end seeing double digit targets from Drew Brees against some of the NFL’s worst coverage linebackers and safeties.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Matt Ryan ($6,600) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s not too often that we get a price reduction on a quarterback coming off a top-3 performance. Ryan and Julio Jones tormented the Green Bay defense last week, and Ryan heads into Week 15 with a DraftKings price tag $400 lighter.
Ryan is outside the top-12 highest priced quarterbacks in a matchup against a Pittsburgh secondary giving up a gaudy 12.4 yards per completion. Only two defenses, the lowly Saints and the Falcons, allow more on a per-completion basis.
I see Ryan as a clear-cut arbitrage play on this week’s elite signal callers. He could once again benefit from game flow, as there’s no possibility Atlanta’s Swiss cheese defense will be able to stop Le’Veon Bell and company.
I would fade Ryan in every format if Julio is declared out with a leg injury he suffered against he Packers. He’s the difference. Ryan has almost no upside without Julio.
Running Back
Tre Mason ($5,400) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Running a back into the teeth of Arizona’s brutal front seven isn’t the most comfortable exercise in fantasy football, but exploiting inefficiencies is rarely an exercise in comfort. That’s a central tenant of exploitation.
Mason’s DraftKings salary fell by an astounding $1,300 after a meager Week 14 stat line against Washington. Mason is the site’s 16th most expensive running back play, but more importantly: he’s part of DraftKings’ third-tier pricing for Week 15 runners. He’s cheap and he still has opportunity. Mason’s touches over the past month and a half: 20, 18, 30, 17, 17, 20.
The Cardinals’ defense gives up 97.8 rushing yards on the road — 10 more than they do at home. They’ve also faltered of late, giving up 130.3 rushing yards over their past three games as teams build leads and take to the ground while Drew Stanton and company plays catchup.
Mason’s floor remains scary stuff indeed, but his massive DraftKings price cut makes him a sensible tourney play in Week 15.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon ($7,400) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I think there’s a pervasive feeling in the daily fantasy Twitter community that Gordon is nothing but a roll of the proverbial dice in an offense that has looked abysmal over the past month.
Week 15 is the time to seize on that trepidation, along with a $700 price drop that puts Gordon a full $2,000 below the week’s top receiver options.
Gordon is expected to see a lot of coverage from Adam Jones, who lines up as the Bengals’ right cornerback on 98 percent of defensive snaps. Jones is rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s 58th best corner through 14 weeks. I think that — along with the benching of Brian Hoyer — makes Gordon as a top-5 receiver priced like a WR2.
He’s been targeted 34 times in three games this season.
Tight End
Coby Fleener ($4,700) vs. Houston Texans
Consider Fleener a cheap Week 15 investment in a game that should see quite a bit of scoring. Fleener’s DraftKings price was slashed by $1,000 after Week 14. He’s now about two-thirds the cost of the site’s elite tight end options.
Week 14 was considered a down week for Fleener. He managed 10.5 fantasy points on the heels of a nuclear performance against Washington. Anyone averaging 5.3 targets per game in the Colts’ high-powered aerial attack should grab our attention, especially in the wake of a big-time price reduction.
Only three defenses give up more passing yards per game than the Texans. I’ll bank on Fleener getting a piece of the inevitable 300-400 yards Andrew Luck will rack up in Week 15.