Market Exploitation: Week 15
How can we best take advantage of the player price movement on DraftKings for Week 15? CDCarter helps out below.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Matt Ryan ($6,600) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s not too often that we get a price reduction on a quarterback coming off a top-3 performance. Ryan and Julio Jones tormented the Green Bay defense last week, and Ryan heads into Week 15 with a DraftKings price tag $400 lighter.
Ryan is outside the top-12 highest priced quarterbacks in a matchup against a Pittsburgh secondary giving up a gaudy 12.4 yards per completion. Only two defenses, the lowly Saints and the Falcons, allow more on a per-completion basis.
I see Ryan as a clear-cut arbitrage play on this week’s elite signal callers. He could once again benefit from game flow, as there’s no possibility Atlanta’s Swiss cheese defense will be able to stop Le’Veon Bell and company.
I would fade Ryan in every format if Julio is declared out with a leg injury he suffered against he Packers. He’s the difference. Ryan has almost no upside without Julio.
Running Back
Tre Mason ($5,400) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Running a back into the teeth of Arizona’s brutal front seven isn’t the most comfortable exercise in fantasy football, but exploiting inefficiencies is rarely an exercise in comfort. That’s a central tenant of exploitation.
Mason’s DraftKings salary fell by an astounding $1,300 after a meager Week 14 stat line against Washington. Mason is the site’s 16th most expensive running back play, but more importantly: he’s part of DraftKings’ third-tier pricing for Week 15 runners. He’s cheap and he still has opportunity. Mason’s touches over the past month and a half: 20, 18, 30, 17, 17, 20.
The Cardinals’ defense gives up 97.8 rushing yards on the road — 10 more than they do at home. They’ve also faltered of late, giving up 130.3 rushing yards over their past three games as teams build leads and take to the ground while Drew Stanton and company plays catchup.
Mason’s floor remains scary stuff indeed, but his massive DraftKings price cut makes him a sensible tourney play in Week 15.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon ($7,400) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I think there’s a pervasive feeling in the daily fantasy Twitter community that Gordon is nothing but a roll of the proverbial dice in an offense that has looked abysmal over the past month.
Week 15 is the time to seize on that trepidation, along with a $700 price drop that puts Gordon a full $2,000 below the week’s top receiver options.
Gordon is expected to see a lot of coverage from Adam Jones, who lines up as the Bengals’ right cornerback on 98 percent of defensive snaps. Jones is rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s 58th best corner through 14 weeks. I think that — along with the benching of Brian Hoyer — makes Gordon as a top-5 receiver priced like a WR2.
He’s been targeted 34 times in three games this season.
Tight End
Coby Fleener ($4,700) vs. Houston Texans
Consider Fleener a cheap Week 15 investment in a game that should see quite a bit of scoring. Fleener’s DraftKings price was slashed by $1,000 after Week 14. He’s now about two-thirds the cost of the site’s elite tight end options.
Week 14 was considered a down week for Fleener. He managed 10.5 fantasy points on the heels of a nuclear performance against Washington. Anyone averaging 5.3 targets per game in the Colts’ high-powered aerial attack should grab our attention, especially in the wake of a big-time price reduction.
Only three defenses give up more passing yards per game than the Texans. I’ll bank on Fleener getting a piece of the inevitable 300-400 yards Andrew Luck will rack up in Week 15.