Market Exploitation: Week 16
We saw in Week 15 that the Patriots’ backfield — and its inherent, maddening variance — is almost always a solid play in large-field daily fantasy tournaments.
LaGarrette Blount, highlighted in this space as an exploitative option for Week 15, took a back seat to Shane Vereen and the formerly dog-housed Jonas Gray, though Blount managed a touchdown and 9.4 points on FanDuel despite a meager nine touches.
Those who took a greedy approach to Mark Sanchez after a marked FanDuel price plunge got the short end of an objectively great opportunity against a Dallas defense that had been gouged by opposing passers in recent weeks.
The Cowboys’ grinding, ball-control approach effectively submarines Sanchez as a volume play. He would’ve had to be
spectacularly efficient to post a big line Sunday night, and that’s simply not his game.
There are plenty of FanDuel and DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 16, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 16 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Josh McCown ($7,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
McCown, with his penchant for on-the-ground production and his offense’s almost total lack of a running attack, represents a classic daily fantasy tournament play this week against the potent Green Bay Packers.
The loss of Gerald McCoy and the general exploitative nature of Tampa’s secondary should lead to the Packers scoring plenty of points in this one, and that’s precisely what we want. Vegas expected Green Bay to put up 29.5 points, in fact.
That should make McCown a volume play against a Packers’ defense that has proven vulnerable on the road in 2014. The Packers give up a 65.8 percent completion rate away from Lambeau Field — nine percentage points higher than they do at home. Green Bay’s secondary has also given up big plays of late, allowing 12.5 yards per completion over the past three games. Only four defenses have been worse over that span.
McCown could eclipse 45 drop backs in this one. With Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, big plays always loom. Tack on some classic McCown running production and you have solid upside for the veteran signal caller.
After a $100 FanDuel price drop, McCown is the site’s 19th priciest quarterback. I think he clearly has top-10 upside.
Running Back
Lamar Miller ($6,300) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I was a little taken aback to see just how soft the Vikings’ run defense has been of late. Only nine teams allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing backs, as Minnesota has been touched up for 123.9 rushing yards per game in 2014. Teams have averaged 143 rushing yards against the Vikes since late November.
Miller’s touches have been remarkably consistent, though he’s hardly a bell cow back in Bill Lazor’s offense. Miller, fantasy’s No. 11 running back through 15 weeks, has proven efficient, however, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 0.72 fantasy points per touch. He’s not dependent on game flow either. Probably that doesn’t matter in this one as Miami is favored by 6.5 points.
Miller’s FanDuel price tag dropped by $400 after a disappointing Week 15 line. There are now 23 runners priced ahead of Miller as he enters a favorable matchup that could quite easily lead to a top-12 performance.
Wide Receiver
Josh Gordon ($7,500) at Carolina Panthers
This is the definition of a leap of faith. And that leap has little to do with Gordon — who we know can be dominant given the chance — but in Johnny Manziel, who appeared last week to be a major downgrade from Brandon Weeden.
Gordon’s FanDuel salary fell by $300 after the entire Browns’ offense tanked against the Bengals in Week 15. Gordon is priced as WR17 on FanDuel — something we may not see again for a very long time.
The Panthers pose little threat to Gordon. Pro Football Focus grades Carolina’s pass defense as a bottom-11 unit after 15 weeks. The Panthers’ pass coverage has rarely been tested in the second half of games largely because teams have been content pounding away at the team’s cushy front seven. Only the Giants, Saints and Chiefs give up a worse yards per carry than the Panthers.
Manziel could very well be a disaster once again in Week 16. I’m willing to take that chance in DFS tournaments though, especially in the wake of Gordon’s price cut. I maintain that Gordon has top-5 potential every time he steps on a football field.
The public fear of Gordon has reached epic levels over the past few days. I’m champing at the bit to seize on that trepidation.
Tight End
Coby Fleener ($5,700) at Dallas Cowboys
I feel like a bit of a broken record in pushing Colts’ skill position players whose FanDuel salary dips from one week to the next. I simply can’t resist a clear and present value in such a potent offense capable of putting up 40 points against anyone, anytime.
Fleener flamed out, as expected, with the return of Dwayne Allen. It’s Allen, after all, who has served as Andrew Luck’s red zone security blanket for much of 2014. Fleener, now priced as FanDuel’s TE7 after a $600 price drop, is still seeing 5.2 targets per game. In a contest that Vegas projects as the week’s second highest scoring affair, I see this as the perfect time to invest in a piece of that scoring action on the cheap.
Allen is $300 cheaper, making him a better cash game play, but I see Fleener as a reasonable pivot for those looking for a contrarian path in Week 16 daily tournaments. It’s also worth noting that Allen is seeing just four targets per contest.
Only Washington and Chicago allow more fantasy production to tight ends than the Cowboys, who have been continually attacked via athletic tight ends in 2014.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($7,000) at Chicago Bears
The Lions could rip the Bears in a variety of ways this week. The End is near for Marc Trestman and company, and I think one weakness of this horrid Bears team is being overlooked by fantasy footballers: Chicago’s pass defense is horrendous.
They give up 20.6 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, along with a cool an astounding 67.7 percent completion rate. Signal callers are completing almost 80 percent of their throws against the Bears over the past three weeks.
Chicago’s secondary isn’t giving up huge plays via the air. They’re being picked apart. That’s good enough for me to invest in Stafford this week after an $800 reduction in his DraftKings price. The side-armed wonder is now priced as QB12 on the site. He pretty clearly has potential for a huge line in this one.
Tre Mason ($4,600) vs. New York Giants
I advocated for Mason last week after a significant DraftKings price cut that left him out of the top-20 priciest running back plays of Week 15. The matchup was rough — going against a potent Arizona front seven — but the price was right. Mason tanked, however, as the Cardinals smartly dared the Rams to beat them with Shaun Hill.
Mason’s DraftKings price took yet another hit this week — this time a $800 cut that leaves him among many backup running backs. I’m going back in on Mason — the clear cut No. 1 back in St. Louis — in a decidedly solid matchup. The Giants have been continually gouged by offenses committed to the run, and barring a Big Blue blowout, that’s precisely what we have with the Rams.
The Giants, despite holding their past three opponents to a meager 107.7 rushing yards, allow 137.7 ground yards per contest in 2014. Only the Titans are more friendly to runners.
New York, per Pro Football Focus grades, are a bottom-12 run defense. Mason makes for a perfectly reasonable tournament option not just because of his price drop and the potential for public fear of the Rams’ runner, but also because he’s a big-play back. Fully 40 percent of his rushing production has come on runs of more than 15 years, according to PFF. That’s the highest breakaway percentage of any running back in the NFL.
Mason has a decent floor and a mouthwatering ceiling against Big Blue.
Josh Gordon ($6,400) at Carolina Panthers
Gordon, thanks to a $1,000 price cut on DraftKings, is now available at third-tier wide receiver pricing in a deluxe matchup against Carolina.
Hesitancy to invest in Gordon is at an all-time high after Johnny Football tanked the Cleveland offense in Week 15. That fear might be justified — JFF could truly be a 5,000-pound anchor around the necks of every player on the Browns’ roster — but I’m more than willing to go in on Gordon at what amounts to a bottom-barrel discount.
Carolina’s pass defense, according to PFF’s grades, is worse than the Jets’ secondary. That’s what we in the industry call “not great.” The Panthers’ cover guys have been shredded in games that saw teams take to the air instead of pound Carolina’s front seven into submission via the run.
All it takes is one with an explosive wideout like Gordon, and at a price that puts him in line with Roddy White, I’m willing to plug and play Gordon in Week 16 tourneys.
Julius Thomas ($4,600) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Thomas has been a shadow of the fantasy producer he was in September and October. Maybe it’s his ankle woes, maybe it’s Peyton Manning’s fading arm strength, or perhaps it’s the clear shift the Broncos have made to C.J. Anderson as the centerpiece of their offense.
Thomas reeled in one pass for 30 yards last week against San Diego. He was targeted twice. Neither number is exactly inspiring, I know.
It’s easy to forget, however, how awful the Bengals have been against the tight end in 2014. After being torched by opposing tight ends for most of the first eight weeks of the season, Cincy’s defense has largely shut down the position since the start of November.
Thomas remains a preeminent red zone threat in an offense that throws the ball quite a bit near the end zone. That makes him well worth the tourney play after a $300 DraftKings price reduction that leaves him a whopping $2,200 below top-priced Rob Gronkowski.
Thomas remains a risky play with a terrifying floor — words I never thought I’d write — but like Gordon, I find his price cut and the fear surrounding his fantasy prospects to be awfully appealing in Week 16.