Market Exploitation: Week 16
Taking advantage of salary drops is one of the many key to success in daily fantasy football. CDCarter helps you on your journey to exploiting the market.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($7,000) at Chicago Bears
The Lions could rip the Bears in a variety of ways this week. The End is near for Marc Trestman and company, and I think one weakness of this horrid Bears team is being overlooked by fantasy footballers: Chicago’s pass defense is horrendous.
They give up 20.6 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, along with a cool an astounding 67.7 percent completion rate. Signal callers are completing almost 80 percent of their throws against the Bears over the past three weeks.
Chicago’s secondary isn’t giving up huge plays via the air. They’re being picked apart. That’s good enough for me to invest in Stafford this week after an $800 reduction in his DraftKings price. The side-armed wonder is now priced as QB12 on the site. He pretty clearly has potential for a huge line in this one.
Tre Mason ($4,600) vs. New York Giants
I advocated for Mason last week after a significant DraftKings price cut that left him out of the top-20 priciest running back plays of Week 15. The matchup was rough — going against a potent Arizona front seven — but the price was right. Mason tanked, however, as the Cardinals smartly dared the Rams to beat them with Shaun Hill.
Mason’s DraftKings price took yet another hit this week — this time a $800 cut that leaves him among many backup running backs. I’m going back in on Mason — the clear cut No. 1 back in St. Louis — in a decidedly solid matchup. The Giants have been continually gouged by offenses committed to the run, and barring a Big Blue blowout, that’s precisely what we have with the Rams.
The Giants, despite holding their past three opponents to a meager 107.7 rushing yards, allow 137.7 ground yards per contest in 2014. Only the Titans are more friendly to runners.
New York, per Pro Football Focus grades, are a bottom-12 run defense. Mason makes for a perfectly reasonable tournament option not just because of his price drop and the potential for public fear of the Rams’ runner, but also because he’s a big-play back. Fully 40 percent of his rushing production has come on runs of more than 15 years, according to PFF. That’s the highest breakaway percentage of any running back in the NFL.
Mason has a decent floor and a mouthwatering ceiling against Big Blue.
Josh Gordon ($6,400) at Carolina Panthers
Gordon, thanks to a $1,000 price cut on DraftKings, is now available at third-tier wide receiver pricing in a deluxe matchup against Carolina.
Hesitancy to invest in Gordon is at an all-time high after Johnny Football tanked the Cleveland offense in Week 15. That fear might be justified — JFF could truly be a 5,000-pound anchor around the necks of every player on the Browns’ roster — but I’m more than willing to go in on Gordon at what amounts to a bottom-barrel discount.
Carolina’s pass defense, according to PFF’s grades, is worse than the Jets’ secondary. That’s what we in the industry call “not great.” The Panthers’ cover guys have been shredded in games that saw teams take to the air instead of pound Carolina’s front seven into submission via the run.
All it takes is one with an explosive wideout like Gordon, and at a price that puts him in line with Roddy White, I’m willing to plug and play Gordon in Week 16 tourneys.
Julius Thomas ($4,600) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Thomas has been a shadow of the fantasy producer he was in September and October. Maybe it’s his ankle woes, maybe it’s Peyton Manning’s fading arm strength, or perhaps it’s the clear shift the Broncos have made to C.J. Anderson as the centerpiece of their offense.
Thomas reeled in one pass for 30 yards last week against San Diego. He was targeted twice. Neither number is exactly inspiring, I know.
It’s easy to forget, however, how awful the Bengals have been against the tight end in 2014. After being torched by opposing tight ends for most of the first eight weeks of the season, Cincy’s defense has largely shut down the position since the start of November.
Thomas remains a preeminent red zone threat in an offense that throws the ball quite a bit near the end zone. That makes him well worth the tourney play after a $300 DraftKings price reduction that leaves him a whopping $2,200 below top-priced Rob Gronkowski.
Thomas remains a risky play with a terrifying floor — words I never thought I’d write — but like Gordon, I find his price cut and the fear surrounding his fantasy prospects to be awfully appealing in Week 16.