Market Exploitation: Week 17
We couldn’t have asked for a better setup: not only had Lamar Miller’s FanDuel price plummeted headed into a sneakily solid matchup against the Vikings, but a Miami beat reporter did us a solid and ramped up public fear of Miller.
Barry Jackson, a Miami Herald reporter, wrote on Saturday that Miller – whose workload has been limited – had averaged a solid 5.4 yards per carry in his first 10 carries of every 2014 game, but just 2.5 YPC in subsequent totes.
News of this marked drop off in efficiency is just the sort of news that makes daily fantasy sports players hedge on value plays. It’s understandable too: Miller’s limited touches suddenly had an explanation. This news tidbit seemed to offer an edge to anyone who saw it in the hours before Sunday’s kickoff.
That was before Miller, highlighted last week in this space, went off for 150 total yards and a touchdown against Minnesota’s soft front seven.
This harkens back to a problem bemoaned by famed behavioral investor James Montier, who sees information obsession not as a worthwhile pursuit by committed investors, but as a grave mistake that’s all too easy to make.
Investors push to “know more and more about less and less, until we know absolutely everything about nothing,” Montier writes in “The Little Book of Behavioral Investing,” a book I highly recommend.
Montier cites a quote from Daniel J. Boorstin, former librarian of the U.S. Congress, who said, “The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.”
A belief in the power of information exists among fantasy players of all calibers, though I think that belief is in need of correcting.
The thinking seems to be that volume of information is key – consuming every tidbit that comes across the news wire, every utterance from coaches and players, every bit of analysis. This problem, in fact, was a central inspiration for why I wrote How To Think Like a Daily Fantasy Football Winner.
There are plenty of FanDuel and DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 17, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 17 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Andy Dalton ($7,900) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback is tough action in the exploitative sense in Week 17, as many signal callers – including Dalton – have seen their FanDuel price slashed, but face a matchup that’ll likely draw the attention of daily gamers everywhere.
Dalton managed a decent line on Monday night despite A.J. Green’s injury and an ugly early interception against Denver. Now he gets a date with the oh-so-generous Pittsburgh secondary, which is allowing 11.8 yards per pass completion – fifth worst in the NFL. Dalton torched the Steelers a few weeks back to the tune of 26.3 fantasy points.
Green’s health figures large here, so monitor his injury status headed into Sunday. Dalton’s FanDuel price dropped by $300 this week, making him FanDuel’s 15th priciest quarterback. I think he pretty clearly has top-10 upside against Pittsburgh.
Running Back
Andre Williams ($6,800) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Williams, even after a solid performance against a tough Rams’ defense in Week 16, saw his FanDuel price tag drop by $200, putting him firmly into the site’s third tier of Week 17 running back pricing.
Williams’ usefulness of course hinges on the status of Rashad Jennings, though it’s hard to imagine that the veteran will return to anything close to full strength against the Eagles.
Philadelphia is allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. That’s partly a result of teams building leads on the floundering Eagles and milking the clock with a flurry of second half carries. The Eagles’ run defense has been particularly bad on the road, allowing 4.2 YPC – almost a full yard per tote more than they give up at home.
Wide Receiver
Vincent Jackson ($6,500) vs. New Orleans Saints
VJax’s presence in this space is borderline comical as the season nears its end. Jackson has been featured here more than any other player, and the reason is straightforward: He’s had a handful of disastrous performances, but remains a volume play in a Tampa offense that has no semblance of a running attack.
Jackson is one of 2014’s least efficient pass catchers, thanks in large part to the always inaccurate Josh McCown. Jackson has seen a whopping 136 targets through 16 weeks, more than all but five receivers. That sort of volume is tough to ignore in a matchup with the Saints’ exploitable secondary. New Orleans’ starting cornerbacks are rated by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s 92nd and 109th best cover guys.
New Orleans, thanks to a late-season collapse, has become the fourth most generous defense to opposing passing games. They’re giving up 272 passing yards in away contests.
Jackson’s Week 16 FanDuel price has fallen by $200, making him a fairly cheap tournament option.
Tight End
Mychal Rivera ($5,200) vs. Denver Broncos
We’ve seen it time and again in 2014: Teams attack the Broncos’ defense via the tight end, as Denver has mostly shut down running attacks and stiffened against wide receivers.
Even Jermaine Gresham – he of inexplicable drops and fumbles – put up a great line against Denver in Week 16, catching nine balls for 62 yards and a score. Even when tight ends don’t hit pay dirt against the Broncos, they’re often peppered with targets.
We’ll see more of that in Week 17. Rivera is the Raiders’ default WR1 with Derek Carr at the helm. The rookie quarterback has targeted Rivera 55 times over the past seven weeks. Only Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, and Rob Gronkowski have seen more looks over that span. Rivera’s opportunity, in other words, will certainly be there in Week 17.
Even better: Rivera’s coming off a heinous performance against a Buffalo defense that has consistently snuffed out tight ends. Rivera managed a single fantasy point against the Bills, leading to a $100 FanDuel price cut that leaves him as the site’s 16th highest priced tight end. He’ll be locked into at least a couple of my Week 17 tourney lineups.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Jay Cutler ($7,400) at Minnesota Vikings
Almost everything about Cutler in Week 17 implores daily fantasy gamers to stay far away from Chicago’s most despised athlete. Cutler only gets the nod against the Vikings because the great Jimmy Clausen was concussed in Week 16 and has been declared out for the season’s final week. Cutler’s coaches can’t stand him. No one has committed more turnovers than Cutler in 2014. His fantasy floor, quite frankly, is the bench.
Does that make Cutty the perfect candidate for this exploitative space? Maybe not, but he’s close to perfect for those who want to run headlong against the grain in Week 17 DraftKings tournaments. Cutler’s price fell by $100 after Week 16. He’s now DraftKing’s 10th priciest quarterback play.
Cutler, who averages 20.1 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, goes against a Vikings’ secondary that has shredded by Ryan Tannehill a week ago. Those same Vikings allowed 255 yards and a touchdown to Geno Smith in Week 14. Cutler smoked Minnesota in November for 330 yards and a trio of touchdown tosses. The matchup, in short, is less than awful.
Cutler will be in one or two of my Week 17 tourney lineups. I’ll either be right alone or wrong alone.
Running Back
Justin Forsett ($6,400) vs. Cleveland Browns
I think Forsett and the Ravens’ defense could be a magnificent stack in Week 17 tournaments. There’s (almost) no way the Browns — led by a third string quarterback — will compete in this one, leaving the Baltimore defense to pile up sacks and turnovers while Gary Kubiak uses Forsett to take the air out of the football against a squishy Cleveland front seven.
Forsett is coming off a crushingly disappointing effort against Houston. He gained 19 yards on 10 carries and managed 7.2 points thanks to some second half pass game involvement. Things will certainly be different against a Cleveland defense ranked by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s 11th worst. Only Tennessee sees more rushing attempts per game than the Browns, who have allowed a hearty five rushing yards per carry over the past four weeks.
I’m hoping daily gamers are put off of Forsett in Week 17 after a dud in Week 16. I can’t resist this play, especially at a reduced price.
Wide Receiver
Charles Johnson ($4,600) vs. Chicago Bears
Johnson, after a nice run as Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to guy, put up a measly 6.4 DraftKings points last week against the Dolphins. It was something less than a spectacular matchup, and Bridgewater largely attacked Dolphins defenders not named Brent Grimes, who covered Johnson.
Johnson has been wonderfully efficient with his looks in 2014, averaging 1.7 fantasy points per target. Anything over two fantasy points per target is crazy efficient, just for perspective. Johnson matches up against a Chicago secondary in disarray. The Bears had been gouged by quarterbacks for at least 22 points in four of five games before somehow shutting down Matthew Stafford in Week 16. Stafford had his chances. He just messed the bed.
Johnson is priced among receivers I’d consider as hit-or-miss fliers, and I think the Vikings’ studly wideout is much more than that against Chicago. Only five defenses give up more yards per completion than the Bears — an indication that Chicago’s secondary is ripe for the picking. I think a Bridgewater-Johnson stack could make a few bucks in Week 17.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($5,600) at Minnesota Vikings
The Unicorn makes this exploitative space one more time, coming off his worst game of 2014. Bennett was targeted twice and dropped his only truly catchable pass. It was, in short, ugly.
Bennett’s DraftKings priced plunged by $400 after Week 16, putting him among the site’s third tier of tight end pricing. The matchup isn’t great — Minnesota is 10th toughest against opposing tight ends — but volume should once again be on Bennett’s side with Cutler back in the proverbial saddle.
Bennett has seen a glut of targets in the wake of Brandon Marshall’s season-ending injury. Cutler threw 14 passes his way in Week 14. It’s tough to turn up your nose at that kind of volume.