Market Exploitation: Week 17
There are plenty of DraftKings salary drops headed into Week 17, and as per usual, we’ll use the useful Market Watch tool to find which guys saw the biggest dips, and how that might create opportunity for those looking to exploit inefficiencies in Week 17 tournaments.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Jay Cutler ($7,400) at Minnesota Vikings
Almost everything about Cutler in Week 17 implores daily fantasy gamers to stay far away from Chicago’s most despised athlete. Cutler only gets the nod against the Vikings because the great Jimmy Clausen was concussed in Week 16 and has been declared out for the season’s final week. Cutler’s coaches can’t stand him. No one has committed more turnovers than Cutler in 2014. His fantasy floor, quite frankly, is the bench.
Does that make Cutty the perfect candidate for this exploitative space? Maybe not, but he’s close to perfect for those who want to run headlong against the grain in Week 17 DraftKings tournaments. Cutler’s price fell by $100 after Week 16. He’s now DraftKing’s 10th priciest quarterback play.
Cutler, who averages 20.1 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, goes against a Vikings’ secondary that has shredded by Ryan Tannehill a week ago. Those same Vikings allowed 255 yards and a touchdown to Geno Smith in Week 14. Cutler smoked Minnesota in November for 330 yards and a trio of touchdown tosses. The matchup, in short, is less than awful.
Cutler will be in one or two of my Week 17 tourney lineups. I’ll either be right alone or wrong alone.
Running Back
Justin Forsett ($6,400) vs. Cleveland Browns
I think Forsett and the Ravens’ defense could be a magnificent stack in Week 17 tournaments. There’s (almost) no way the Browns — led by a third string quarterback — will compete in this one, leaving the Baltimore defense to pile up sacks and turnovers while Gary Kubiak uses Forsett to take the air out of the football against a squishy Cleveland front seven.
Forsett is coming off a crushingly disappointing effort against Houston. He gained 19 yards on 10 carries and managed 7.2 points thanks to some second half pass game involvement. Things will certainly be different against a Cleveland defense ranked by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s 11th worst. Only Tennessee sees more rushing attempts per game than the Browns, who have allowed a hearty five rushing yards per carry over the past four weeks.
I’m hoping daily gamers are put off of Forsett in Week 17 after a dud in Week 16. I can’t resist this play, especially at a reduced price.
Wide Receiver
Charles Johnson ($4,600) vs. Chicago Bears
Johnson, after a nice run as Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to guy, put up a measly 6.4 DraftKings points last week against the Dolphins. It was something less than a spectacular matchup, and Bridgewater largely attacked Dolphins defenders not named Brent Grimes, who covered Johnson.
Johnson has been wonderfully efficient with his looks in 2014, averaging 1.7 fantasy points per target. Anything over two fantasy points per target is crazy efficient, just for perspective. Johnson matches up against a Chicago secondary in disarray. The Bears had been gouged by quarterbacks for at least 22 points in four of five games before somehow shutting down Matthew Stafford in Week 16. Stafford had his chances. He just messed the bed.
Johnson is priced among receivers I’d consider as hit-or-miss fliers, and I think the Vikings’ studly wideout is much more than that against Chicago. Only five defenses give up more yards per completion than the Bears — an indication that Chicago’s secondary is ripe for the picking. I think a Bridgewater-Johnson stack could make a few bucks in Week 17.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($5,600) at Minnesota Vikings
The Unicorn makes this exploitative space one more time, coming off his worst game of 2014. Bennett was targeted twice and dropped his only truly catchable pass. It was, in short, ugly.
Bennett’s DraftKings priced plunged by $400 after Week 16, putting him among the site’s third tier of tight end pricing. The matchup isn’t great — Minnesota is 10th toughest against opposing tight ends — but volume should once again be on Bennett’s side with Cutler back in the proverbial saddle.
Bennett has seen a glut of targets in the wake of Brandon Marshall’s season-ending injury. Cutler threw 14 passes his way in Week 14. It’s tough to turn up your nose at that kind of volume.