Market Exploitation: Week 6
Which player prices should we take advantage of for Week 6? CDCarter is looking to exploit the market once again.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Nick Foles ($6,800) vs. New York Giants
Foles saw another DraftKings salary cut after his middling performance against a bad St. Louis secondary. Foles’ price tag was reduced by $1,700. He’s now DraftKings’ 11th priciest quarterback.
Big Blue gives up 7.6 yards per pass attempt – the fifth highest mark in the NFL through five weeks. The Giants are allowing a league-high 12.6 yards per completion too.
That, combined with the generally negative outlook on Foles’ prospects and Vegas lines chalking this up to be one of the week’s highest scoring affairs, makes Foles a fine fit for this space. It’s easy to forget that Foles is averaging 276 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns.
Running Back
Joique Bell ($3,700) at Minnesota Vikings
This all depends on Bell’s availability after a Week 4 concussion held him out of Week 5’s contest against Buffalo. If Bell plays against Minnesota, he’ll be in a lot of my lineups, thanks in large part to a $1,900 reduction in his DraftKings salary.
There are now 30 runners priced higher than Bell, who could get a full workload against the Vikings if Reggie Bush misses the game with an ankle injury. Bell’s per-touch average of .65 fantasy points isn’t stellar until you realize he’s scored just one touchdown in 2014. That’ll change, as he’ll maintain Detroit’s goal line duties.
The Vikings, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 24.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. According to RotoGrinder’s Defense vs. RB tool that’s good for just 22nd in the NFL. Bell has a rare high-floor, high-ceiling scenario in this one.
Wide Receivers
Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,200) vs. Detroit Lions
Patterson, at long last, is becoming a squeaky wheel as the Vikings’ season circles the toilet. He wants more touches, and his pleas come just in time: CPatt’s DraftKings price tag fell by $1,300 this week, making him $200 cheaper than Allan Hurns.
Patterson somehow has just 23 targets and four carries through five games. If you’re playing him in tournaments this weekend, you’re expecting that to change. We saw late last season what happens when the ball is forced into Patterson’s hands (he was WR5 from Week 13-17).
The expected return of Teddy Bridgewater is a giant upgrade for the entire Vikings’ offense, especially their best pass catcher.
Torrey Smith ($4,100) at Tampa Bay Bucs
Smith’s DraftKings price once again took a hit after another hideous stat line in Week 5. The incredibly vanishing receiver saw a $700 price hit and is one of the few useable receivers cheaper than Patterson in Week 6.
Tampa has been tormented through the air all season. The Bucs’ secondary gives up 13.2 receptions to opposing receivers, on average, and has allowed six touchdowns to wideouts over their first five games. Only two defenses – the Eagles and Cardinals — have allowed more fantasy production to receivers.
Torrey, as per usual, is nothing short of a lottery ticket in this one, but in this nice matchup, the price is right.
Tight End
Larry Donnell ($3,500) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Donnell went from an elite option to hardly worth a flier, all in the span of one short week. After going nuclear against Washington in Week 5, Donnell posted a donut in Week 6 as the Falcons double and triple teamed him in the red zone.
Donnell’s DraftKings price tag plunged by $2,200, making him the site’s 14th priciest tight end option for Week 6. Philly has proven tough against tight ends – only seven teams allow fewer fantasy points to the position – but Donnell is still running the number of pass routes needed to put up decent numbers over the long haul.
Donnell doesn’t seem like the kind of player who can overcome extra defensive attention, though the Eagles could struggle to do just that as they do everything they can to stop New York’s receivers from joining the long list of pass catchers who have roasted the Philadelphia secondary in 2014.
Vegas projects the G-Men to score 23.75 points against the Eagles. That’s enough for me to grab a piece of the New York offense on the cheap.