Market Exploitation: Week 8
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
CDCarter checks in with another edition of his Market Exploitation, in which he locks in some of his favorite value plays at DraftKings.
Quarterback
Jay Cutler ($7,000) at New England Patriots
Would I like ole’ Cutty to be cheaper here? Sure. The general daily gaming public couldn’t be more down on the DGAF metric all-star, however, and I think this matchup presents a prime opportunity for market exploitation.
Cutler, fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback headed into Week 7’s debacle against Miami, saw his DraftKings price tag drop by $900 – enough to grab my attention in Week 8. New England, when adjusted for strength of schedule, is giving up 17 fantasy points per game to opposing passers.
The Patriots are giving up a paltry 6.4 yards per pass attempt – eighth best in the NFL – but have faced a string of less-than-stellar quarterbacks. Even after last week’s meltdown, Cutler has a .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT). Throw out Week 7 and that jumps to a healthy .51 FPAT. Daily fantasy fear abounds this week with the Chicago offense. Jump in.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy ($5,800) at Arizona Cardinals
Shady is no longer priced as a top-10 option on DraftKings. He’s 12th in pricing after a horrifically disappointing stretch that saw the Eagles’ offense struggle mightily with a banged-up offensive line.
McCoy’s price dropped by an incredible $2,000 as we head into Week 8. He faces off against a stout Arizona front seven that, according to RotoGrinders’ Defense vs. RB tool, allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Here’s the rub: Philly’s offensive line is slowly but surely getting healthy, and even without an intact set of blockers, McCoy most recently ripped off 149 yards in three quarters against the Giants.
We don’t often get a monstrous discount on a runner like Shady. Plug him in.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks ($4,700) vs. Green Bay Packers
Cooks in Week 8 represents a (very) cheap investment in what could be one of the highest scoring affairs of 2014. The rookie, after a hot start to the season, has faded of late, but still plays the vast majority of the Saints’ offensive snaps and runs a decent number of weekly pass routes. That’s important.
Cooks’ DraftKings price tag fell by $1,100 after Week 7’s 4.3-point performance against Detroit’s crushingly tough pass defense. Cooks is still averaging 12.4 DraftKings points per week and sees 5.6 weekly targets from Drew Brees.
Think of Cooks as a bottom-barrel investment in a game that has a bunch of top-dollar DFS options. He’ll be in quite a few of my tourney lineups. More than 50 receivers are priced ahead of Cooks this week.
Vincent Jackson ($5,100) vs. Minnesota Vikings
VJax, as injury talk and trade rumors swirl amidst a statistical dry spell for the hulking pass catcher, saw his DraftKings salary drop by $800. I’m so greedy on Jackson, I can hardly see straight. It’s a medical condition. Look it up.
Twenty-one receivers are now priced ahead of Jackson, who takes on a Vikings’ secondary that appears to be solid. A little context, however, tells a different story. In at least four games this season, Minnesota opponents have more or less called off the offensive dogs after mounting big leads against the Vikings. Receivers, in other words, haven’t had to do a whole lot against Minnesota.
The Bills last week offered a glimpse of how vulnerable the Minnesota secondary might be, as Buffalo receivers sliced through Vikings cover guys for 19 catches and 195 yards. Barring game flow disaster – always a threat with teams as awful as Minnesota and Tampa – I think Jackson has a crazy-high fantasy floor in this one.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($3,200) at Arizona Cardinals
Ertz, after a $600 reduction in DraftKings price, is essentially free. And now he gets his crack at a Cardinals defense allowing 5.9 receptions and 69.9 yards to tight ends.
Ertz is running 26.1 pass routes per game – not a terribly low number, though we’d like to see that increase a bit going forward. I think it’s plenty of usage to take advantage of an Arizona coverage unit that has proven exploitable when teams decide to use the tight end as a weapon. It surprised me to see Ertz is notching 10.1 fantasy points per game this year.
Probably Ertz comes with a downside that makes him nothing more than a tournament option. His low salary frees up a ton of cash for elite backs and receivers too.