Market Exploitation: Week 9
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
CDCarter checks in with another edition of his Market Exploitation, in which he locks in some of his favorite value plays at DraftKings.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill ($6,300) vs. San Diego Chargers
You can load up on Tannehill for just $200 more than it would cost to plug in Colt McCoy in Week 9. That makes no sense and I love it.
Tannehill’s DraftKings price took a $400 hit following a lackluster line against the Jaguars – one that was saved by yet another fine rushing performance – has brought new fantasy appeal to Miami’s signal caller.
Tannehill, DraftKings’ 17th priciest quarterback option this week, goes against a San Diego secondary that has been carved up like a jack-o-lantern this month. They now allow 17.5 points to opposing passers when adjusted for strength of schedule. I see Tannehill as an unusually safe option at his low cost.
Running back
Marshawn Lynch ($6,100) vs. Oakland Raiders
I wouldn’t worry too much about the Raiders inexplicably shutting down the occasionally stout Cleveland running game last week. Oakland has been shredded on the ground for much of 2014, especially in road games.
Teams are continually attacking Oakland’s defense via the ground, as the Raiders see a league-high 34.6 rush attempts through eight weeks. Teams call running plays 52.8 percent of the time against Oakland. I think we’ll see more of that in Week 9 while the Seahawks look for some notion of offensive identity beyond Russell Wilson running around looking for any way to advance the ball.
There’s a reason Lynch’s DraftKings salary has slowly but surely diminished this month: the running back hasn’t cracked double digit fantasy points in four weeks. Lynch is getting a meager 14.7 carries per game in October. I think this is an ideal week in which to pounce on Lynch as a value play at just at 30% discount versus the game’s elite options, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster.
Rumors of locker room squabbling and generally poor play have created blood in those Lynch streets. Now’s the time to buy.
Wide receivers
Michael Floyd ($3,800) at Dallas Cowboys
Floyd posted a big, fat donut for you last week. Not since Russell Wilson had a bowel movement in his pants against Dallas in Week 5 has a player so thoroughly broken daily fantasy hearts.
Now Floyd, after a $1,100 DraftKings price reduction, is cheaper than Torrey Smith, Eddie Royal, and Dwayne Bowe. There are 49 receivers priced ahead of Floyd as he takes on a Dallas secondary that has continually struggled with downfield threats. Part of the problem with Floyd’s week-to-week value is that he’s far too dependent on the deep shot. This week, I think it’s a lot less of a problem.
Remember that Floyd is still seeing 5.8 targets per game in 2014 and runs a healthy 35.6 pass routes per game. You’re rarely going to get to buy in to a pass catcher like Floyd at this price. Exploit this massive week-over-week price plunge.
Brandin Cooks ($4,100) at Carolina Panthers
It’s a little jarring to include a receiver in this space for the second consecutive week, especially after said receiver went off for 27.8 fantasy points the week before.
But here we are with Cooks, whose DraftKings salary dropped by an incredible $600, making him cheaper than Percy Harvin. Cooks is by no means being force fed the football, though continued use in the Saints’ running game and short passing game should keep his fantasy floor rather high.
Only seven defenses are giving up more fantasy production to receivers than Carolina has allowed through seven games. New Orleans is a different team on the road – of that much I’m aware – but buying Cooks at such a low price means that he can prove a worthwhile investment without scorching the Panthers’ secondary like he did the Packers.
Cooks is running an average of 36.3 routes – a good sign for the rookie. He’ll be in more than a couple of my Week 9 lineups.
Tight end
Owen Daniels ($3,200) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Daniels is practicing this week after missing Week 8 with a knee injury. If he’s a full go against the Steelers – and we may not know until the weekend – he becomes a must-play for anyone looking to fade this week’s elite tight ends.
Daniels, after a $900 drop in DraftKings salary, is near the site’s minimum, available for a full $1,000 less than Clay Harbor. Pittsburgh, against teams that use their tight ends as a key part of their offenses, has allowed 3.2 receptions, 61.5 yards, and one touchdown to opposing tight ends.
Daniels has averaged 10.87 fantasy points since Dennis Pitta’s season-ending hip injury. He’s an ideal tourney play in Week 9.