Matchup Analysis: EU LCS - Thursday
Week 3 starts off with a series of matches between teams at very similar spots in the standings making outcomes very difficult to predict. This is further complicated by the visa issues encountered by several teams. Let’s take a look at each matchup and what the outcome might be.
Splyce (-152) vs. Giants Gaming (+125)
The first match of the day is also the most interesting match. It is between last place Giants Gaming and Splyce who is in a 3 way tie for 7th, one spot above Giants. The data is not kind to either of these teams as Giants players are averaging a combined total of 66 DraftKings fantasy points a game and Splyce are averaging 69.5, both well below the league average of 91.
Splyce is favored to win this match, however Giants could have a breakout week. Giants removed their jungler KOu from their lineup this week due to his toxic attitude. Given that League of Legends is such a mental game the removal of a negative player should allow Giants to come into this game with new energy and with something to prove. Giant’s players are well priced and they average one of the highest kill participations in the league making them even more appealing as a GPP stack.
Origen (-290) vs. ROCCAT (+229)
Neither of these teams have started the season very well as they both sit tied for 7th with records of 1-3. Neither of these teams score very many points either, however Roccat allows a league high 124 fantasy points to opponents on average. Combine this with the knowledge that Roccat’s support Edward is out with visa issues, the level of talent on OG, and the very favorable pricing for OG, we can expect great value from OG players, and we can expect them to be very highly owned.
Fnatic (-240) vs. G2 Esports (+193)
G2 is one of 5 teams tied for first, while Fnatic is in sole command of the 6th spot in the rankings. On paper these teams are very similar, both average combined totals of 102 fantasy points, above the league average of 91. Given the teams records so far, and the strength of the teams each has faced, I think we can expect to see Fnatic win this game easily. In fact, I believe Fnatic players to be the safest picks in todays slate. Unfortunately, this is reflected in their pricing and fitting more than 1 or 2 FNC players can be difficult.
Unicorns of Love (-174) vs. Elements (+142)
This is the most uncertain matchup of the day. Elements has been the best scoring team and most surprising team in Europe so far this season, however UoL has also proven that their new roster is quite capable. Normally I would give an edge to UoL, however unfortunately for UoL their veteran jungler Diamondprox is on the bench this week due to visa issues forcing them to play with a substitute. This one is too close to predict a winner, but could easily be the highest scoring fantasy point game of the day.
H2k Gaming (-119) vs. Team Vitality (-102)
Two teams that were expected to be juggernauts this season meet on the rift, they are both 3-1 and in a 5 way tie for first. On a normal week we would give a strong edge to the ever consistent H2K over the unproven Vitality, however H2K has not escaped visa issues and will be without their rock solid mid laner Ryu.
This puts us in a rough spot, H2K plays a very careful and controlled style, which should not change meaning that Vitality will have trouble scoring points even in a win. In fact, H2K leads the league and allows only an average of 50 total points a game to opposing players, trailing not far behind them is Vitality, allowing only 60 points a game to opponents. H2K does average the second highest points scored total at 111 points a game, but how well they will be able to perform without Ryu remains to be seen.
H2K’s Forgiven is a bright spot in this game, without Ryu there will be more focus on him to carry the game allowing him to score even more fantasy points than usual. I am mostly avoiding this game, with the exception of some H2K players in cash lineups.