Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds, Preview, Pick & Prediction — December 25th
Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds
| Mavericks Odds | +13 |
| Jazz Odds | -13 |
| Over/Under | 214 |
| Date | Saturday, Dec. 25 |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Similar to the rest of the NBA Christmas Day slate, this matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Utah Jazz is significantly impacted by COVID-19. Dallas will be without Reggie Bullock, Trey Burke, Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber, JaQuori McLaughlin, and Eugene Omoruyi due to health and safety protocols. Willie Cauley-Stein is also away from the team for personal reasons. Utah is near full strength, with Udoka Azubuike and Malik Fitts being the only two names on their injury report as of this writing. Oddsmakers are anticipating the health disparity playing a tremendous factor in this one, pricing the Jazz as 13-point home favorites on the spread at online sportsbooks.
Now, let’s preview each team before making our Mavs vs. Jazz pick and prediction.
Mavericks
Per Cleaning the Glass, Dallas has only played 148 possessions this season in which none of Bullock, Burke, Doncic, Hardaway Jr., Kleber, McLaughlin, Omoruyi, and Cauley-Stein are on the floor. In that small sample size, Dallas ranks in the 28th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 97th percentile in defensive efficiency. Yet, none of those possessions have come with Kristaps Porzingis on the court. As of this writing, Porzingis is still listed as questionable with a toe injury. When Porzingis has been on the floor without Doncic, Hardaway Jr., and Kleber this season, Dallas has struggled mightily to score the basketball, but they remain competitive defensively. As long as the Mavericks have their prized big-man on the floor in this one, they should be able to do enough to keep this matchup reasonably close.
Jazz
Utah is one of the few teams in the NBA right now that is not dealing with COVID-19 related issues. During the month of December, the Jazz rank 3rd in the league with a +11.6 Net Rating. Utah has been on a tear offensively, scoring 121.1 points per 100 possessions in their 10 games. On top of those impressive numbers, only the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns have a better Net Rating when playing at home this season.
Donovan Mitchell has been sensational in 30 games this year, averaging 25.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. The Jazz remain one of the deepest rosters in the league as well, with five players posting 13.9 points or better per night, and nine players contributing at least 7.6 points per contest. In his last 10 games, Rudy Gobert is averaging 16.4 points and 16.2 rebounds per game on 68.3 percent shooting from the floor. Dealing with numerous absences from their normal rotation this evening, the Mavericks are likely to struggle to contain the French big-man in this one.
Pick and Prediction
Utah is rightfully favored in this contest, but if you did not lock in your wagers on the spread prior to this afternoon, the value has vanished for bettors to take Utah. In their last game, the Jazz won by 12 points, covering for those who snagged them early at -11.5, but failing to cash for those who made them a late addition to their card. Instead of forcing action on a large spread tonight, play the under in a game likely to feature solid defense from both teams. Dallas is going to struggle to win this game, but their commitment to getting stops should do enough to keep this one relatively low-scoring. Take the under.
PICK: Under 213.5 (-110)
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