McGladrey Classic Expert Picks & Projections
Event Preview
The PGA Tour heads to Georgia this week for the McGladrey Classic. The event will be held at the Sea Island Golf Course for the fifth consecutive season. Sea Island is a Par-70 course that is one of the shortest tracks on tour. It measures only 7,005 yards and had one of the lowest average driving distances (271.3) of any event last season. A track this short really takes distance out of the equation and puts a bigger emphasis on accuracy and ball striking (total driving + greens in regulation).
Defending champion Chris Kirk will be in the field this week, but as always, it’s extremely tough to defend a title unless you are Tiger Woods in his prime. With Kirk being the third most expensive golfer in the field, he’s an easy fade for me this week. The players to target here are good ball strikers as well as golfers from Georgia that are basically playing a home game this week. This week I’ve also included my projections for the event which are back by popular demand. Enjoy!
McGladrey Classic Picks
Matt Kuchar: $12,000 – There may not be a better course built for Matt Kuchar’s game. Kuchar has never been one of the longer players off the tee, but he has always been deadly accurate. Last season he was ranked 20th in driving accuracy and 42nd in ball striking. Kuchar has posted Top-25 finishes in each of his last three attempts (with all 12 rounds at par or better) at this event including a T-7th here last season. While he is the most expensive golfer on the board this week, it would surprise me to see him finish outside of the Top-10. With all of the great value plays available this week, Kuchar will be an anchor in my cash game lineups.
Russell Knox: $9,500 – Knox had a chance to win last week at the Shriners Open, but posted a quiet one-under on Sunday to finish in solo third. He has now made five straight cuts with Top-40 finishes in four of those events. He’s one of the most accurate players on tour ranking 18th in driving accuracy and 23rd in ball striking. This course fits his style of play perfectly and he has had success at this event in the past posting T-27th and T-32nd finishes in his only two appearances. Once again, targeting precision over distance is the way to go this week and Knox fits the bill perfectly.
Kevin Chappell: $8,000 – After finishing the 2013-14 season with a bang, Chappell missed the cut in the first event of the season. He will look to bounce back this week at the McGladrey Classic. Chappell is accurate off the tee (41st) and is one of the better ball strikers on tour (11th). He’s never been the best putter, but he should give himself plenty of birdie chances this week and if he can get the flat stick rolling, he could easily find himself in contention on Sunday afternoon. Dollar for dollar, Chappell is my favorite golfer over $7,000.
Hudson Swafford: $7,400 – Swafford has a home game this week as he is one of the many Georgia Bulldogs in this tournament. Swafford was very inconsistent last season, but he did show a ton of promise. He’s off to a much better start in the 2014-15 season with a T-8th at the Frys.com Open and a T-18th at the Shriners Open. He is a dark horse to win it all this week and seems to be a bargain at only $7,400.
David Toms: $6,600 – Speaking of being accurate, Toms led the PGA Tour last season by hitting 75.5% of fairways. Toms was also ranked 13th in greens in regulation. We can expect a lot of fairways and greens hit from Toms this week in what should be a solid outing from the veteran. Toms has made the cut here in each of the last four seasons and has posted two Top-3 finishes in that stretch. At his price, he will pay off his salary as long as he makes the cut. Anything above that will just be icing on the cake.
Heath Slocum: $5,700 – Slocum will not be a popular play this week as he has missed both cuts to start the 2014-15 season. That said, the projections love Slocum this week. Slocum has had great success at this event in the past as he is 4/4 in cuts made with three Top-16 finishes. Last season Slocum was ranked 5th in driving accuracy and 48th in ball striking. Vegas also likes him as a sneaky pick as he is currently listed at 115/1 to win the tournament which is much lower than the other golfers at his price point.
McGladrey Classic Projections
This week’s projections are based on three factors: Vegas odds to win, history at the event since 2010, as well as key statistics that match the Sea Island Golf Course. These three weights were used to come up with a Golfer Rating (out of 100) which was then used to calculate a projection for each golfer.
| Name | Salary | Avg. Odds | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | Golfer Rating | Projection | $ / Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Slocum | $5,700 | 16 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 68.26 | 78.64 | $72.49 | |
| David Toms | $6,600 | 27 | 2 | 72 | 3 | 78.90 | 90.45 | $72.96 | |
| Brian Stuard | $5,600 | 118 | 15 | 62.14 | 73.18 | $76.52 | |||
| Bill Lunde | $5,300 | 20 | 58.08 | 68.64 | $77.22 | ||||
| Michael Thompson | $6,800 | 10 | 3 | 76.32 | 87.73 | $77.51 | |||
| Daniel Summerhays | $6,800 | 10 | 110 | 109 | 74.12 | 86.82 | $78.32 | ||
| Colt Knost | $6,600 | 99 | 26 | 73.44 | 84.09 | $78.49 | |||
| Kevin Chappell | $8,000 | 32 | 43 | 84.74 | 101.36 | $78.92 | |||
| Brian Harman | $8,100 | 10 | 27 | 85.34 | 102.27 | $79.20 | |||
| Adam Hadwin | $7,600 | 70 | 81.54 | 95.91 | $79.24 | ||||
| Jerry Kelly | $6,400 | 132 | 106 | 20 | 33 | 70.12 | 80.45 | $79.55 | |
| William McGirt | $6,200 | 74 | 48 | 67.80 | 77.73 | $79.77 | |||
| George McNeill | $7,100 | 22 | 74 | 76.72 | 88.64 | $80.10 | |||
| Stuart Appleby | $5,300 | 36 | 27 | 57.48 | 65.91 | $80.41 | |||
| Kevin Kisner | $6,700 | 20 | 110 | 26 | 72.10 | 83.18 | $80.55 | ||
| Boo Weekley | $6,200 | 22 | 27 | 44 | 109 | 67.62 | 76.82 | $80.71 | |
| Cameron Tringale | $7,900 | 27 | 116 | 26 | 125 | 82.36 | 97.73 | $80.84 | |
| Scott Brown | $8,900 | 4 | 20 | 90.76 | 110.00 | $80.91 | |||
| Chad Campbell | $5,800 | 36 | 7 | 94 | 33 | 60.80 | 71.36 | $81.27 | |
| Brendon de Jonge | $8,400 | 16 | 4 | 60 | 15 | 87.18 | 103.18 | $81.41 | |
| Andrew Svoboda | $6,200 | 86 | 66.54 | 75.91 | $81.68 | ||||
| Ben Martin | $7,700 | 74 | 68 | 80.76 | 94.09 | $81.84 | |||
| John Huh | $5,700 | 59.90 | 69.55 | $81.96 | |||||
| Charley Hoffman | $7,500 | 22 | 79.04 | 91.36 | $82.09 | ||||
| Scott Langley | $7,600 | 22 | 79.72 | 92.27 | $82.36 | ||||
| Jason Kokrak | $7,400 | 10 | 27 | 78.36 | 89.55 | $82.64 | |||
| Scott Piercy | $8,200 | 63 | 72 | 25 | 82.74 | 98.64 | $83.13 | ||
| Camilo Villegas | $7,100 | 40 | 20 | 73.64 | 85.00 | $83.53 | |||
| Tony Finau | $8,400 | 83.90 | 99.55 | $84.38 | |||||
| Russell Knox | $9,500 | 32 | 27 | 91.52 | 112.50 | $84.44 | |||
| Ken Duke | $4,800 | 20 | 15 | 50.20 | 56.56 | $84.87 | |||
| Jeff Overton | $6,300 | 74 | 51 | 6 | 63.22 | 74.09 | $85.03 | ||
| Jon Curran | $4,700 | 49.20 | 54.77 | $85.81 | |||||
| Robert Streb | $7,400 | 73.90 | 85.91 | $86.14 | |||||
| Robert Allenby | $5,600 | 74 | 80 | 32 | 3 | 57.18 | 65.00 | $86.15 | |
| Carl Pettersson | $7,100 | 55 | 20 | 74 | 71.40 | 82.27 | $86.30 | ||
| Sam Saunders | $3,600 | 34.10 | 41.64 | $86.47 | |||||
| Danny Lee | $5,100 | 40 | 27 | 52.90 | 58.95 | $86.52 | |||
| Charles Howell III | $8,700 | 27 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 84.62 | 100.45 | $86.61 | |
| Jason Bohn | $6,500 | 102 | 73 | 44 | 109 | 66.10 | 75.00 | $86.67 | |
| Brendon Todd | $9,200 | 16 | 120 | 88.30 | 105.00 | $87.62 | |||
| Will MacKenzie | $4,500 | 102 | 72 | 59 | 45.84 | 51.19 | $87.91 | ||
| Kyle Reifers | $4,300 | 120 | 15 | 44.78 | 48.80 | $88.12 | |||
| Blayne Barber | $5,100 | 50.70 | 57.75 | $88.30 | |||||
| Russell Henley | $8,600 | 65 | 82.20 | 96.82 | $88.83 | ||||
| Aaron Baddeley | $7,100 | 40 | 64 | 69.88 | 79.55 | $89.26 | |||
| Justin Thomas | $6,000 | 120 | 57.84 | 66.82 | $89.80 | ||||
| Stewart Cink | $6,500 | 102 | 64 | 113 | 61.94 | 72.27 | $89.94 | ||
| Ben Curtis | $4,900 | 32 | 27 | 48 | 15 | 48.16 | 54.17 | $90.45 | |
| Padraig Harrington | $5,800 | 56.50 | 64.09 | $90.50 | |||||
| Hudson Swafford | $7,400 | 86 | 70.82 | 81.36 | $90.95 | ||||
| Jason Gore | $5,200 | 50.40 | 57.16 | $90.98 | |||||
| Harris English | $9,800 | 27 | 15 | 89.60 | 107.50 | $91.16 | |||
| Zach Johnson | $10,500 | 16 | 49 | 113 | 12 | 95.10 | 115.00 | $91.30 | |
| David Lingmerth | $6,200 | 58.00 | 67.73 | $91.54 | |||||
| Erik Compton | $5,800 | 63 | 85 | 56.48 | 63.18 | $91.80 | |||
| Max Homa | $4,100 | 37.20 | 44.62 | $91.89 | |||||
| Bill Haas | $10,800 | 2 | 95.60 | 117.50 | $91.91 | ||||
| Shawn Stefani | $5,100 | 49.20 | 55.37 | $92.11 | |||||
| Jonathan Randolph | $3,900 | 35.20 | 42.23 | $92.35 | |||||
| Robert Garrigus | $5,500 | 22 | 69 | 125 | 53.20 | 59.55 | $92.37 | ||
| Andrew Putnam | $4,900 | 47.60 | 52.98 | $92.49 | |||||
| Richard Sterne | $5,700 | 55.70 | 61.36 | $92.89 | |||||
| Jonathan Byrd | $5,800 | 55 | 32 | 66 | 56.44 | 62.27 | $93.14 | ||
| Alex Cejka | $4,500 | 87 | 88 | 43.08 | 48.20 | $93.36 | |||
| Chesson Hadley | $6,600 | 109 | 60.64 | 70.45 | $93.68 | ||||
| Chris Kirk | $11,300 | 1 | 64 | 72 | 15 | 96.46 | 120.00 | $94.17 | |
| Mark Wilson | $3,900 | 48 | 10 | 94 | 33 | 34.06 | 41.04 | $95.03 | |
| Martin Flores | $4,300 | 55 | 57 | 125 | 37.56 | 45.22 | $95.10 | ||
| Justin Hicks | $4,700 | 92 | 109 | 45.00 | 49.40 | $95.15 | |||
| Webb Simpson | $11,700 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 97.94 | 122.50 | $95.51 | ||
| Davis Love III | $3,700 | 125 | 4 | 72 | 33 | 30.46 | 38.65 | $95.73 | |
| Andres Romero | $5,600 | 69 | 50.82 | 58.35 | $95.97 | ||||
| Matt Kuchar | $12,000 | 7 | 20 | 25 | 99.18 | 125.00 | $96.00 | ||
| Tom Gillis | $4,800 | 130 | 66 | 45.36 | 49.99 | $96.01 | |||
| Rory Sabbatini | $5,400 | 70 | 27 | 49.28 | 55.96 | $96.49 | |||
| Jim Herman | $4,900 | 86 | 60 | 45.54 | 50.59 | $96.86 | |||
| Justin Leonard | $4,500 | 65 | 70 | 72 | 45 | 39.06 | 46.41 | $96.96 | |
| Tommy Gainey | $5,200 | 92 | 1 | 94 | 48.12 | 53.58 | $97.06 | ||
| Andres Gonzales | $5,100 | 60 | 47.48 | 52.38 | $97.36 | ||||
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | $5,900 | 54.00 | 60.45 | $97.59 | |||||
| Tim Wilkinson | $4,300 | 36.70 | 44.02 | $97.68 | |||||
| Nick Watney | $10,300 | 87.60 | 104.09 | $98.95 | |||||
| Brian Davis | $4,700 | 74 | 80 | 71 | 120 | 42.56 | 47.01 | $99.98 | |
| Sung Joon Park | $4,600 | 37.60 | 45.81 | $100.41 | |||||
| John Peterson | $5,200 | 92 | 47.30 | 51.78 | $100.42 | ||||
| John Merrick | $4,800 | 114 | 42.80 | 47.61 | $100.83 | ||||
| John Rollins | $4,400 | 32 | 80 | 86 | 12 | 35.72 | 43.43 | $101.32 | |
| Brice Garnett | $4,400 | 36 | 35.32 | 42.83 | $102.73 | ||||
| Nick Taylor | $3,700 | 28.10 | 35.66 | $103.74 | |||||
| Alex Prugh | $4,000 | 118 | 30.12 | 38.05 | $105.12 | ||||
| Cameron Percy | $3,900 | 98 | 28.98 | 36.86 | $105.81 | ||||
| Daniel Berger | $4,000 | 29.30 | 37.46 | $106.79 | |||||
| Martin Laird | $10,000 | 80.50 | 93.18 | $107.32 | |||||
| Scott Pinckney | $4,300 | 30.70 | 39.25 | $109.56 | |||||
| Johnson Wagner | $4,400 | 126 | 44 | 25 | 32.22 | 39.84 | $110.43 | ||
| Chad Collins | $4,100 | 109 | 33 | 28.88 | 36.26 | $113.07 | |||
| Fabian Gomez | $3,700 | 64 | 23.68 | 32.68 | $113.22 | ||||
| Mark Hubbard | $3,700 | 23.20 | 32.08 | $115.33 | |||||
| James Hahn | $4,000 | 48 | 27.64 | 34.47 | $116.04 | ||||
| Cory Whitsett | $4,700 | 32.70 | 40.44 | $116.22 | |||||
| Steven Alker | $3,600 | 22.90 | 30.89 | $116.55 | |||||
| Byron Smith | $4,100 | 27.90 | 35.07 | $116.92 | |||||
| Eric Axley | $3,900 | 48 | 25.26 | 33.28 | $117.20 | ||||
| Zack Sucher | $3,700 | 23.00 | 31.49 | $117.51 | |||||
| Lucas Glover | $3,600 | 40 | 15 | 98 | 22.06 | 30.29 | $118.84 | ||
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | $4,300 | 92 | 25.32 | 33.87 | $126.94 | ||||
| Mark Anderson | $3,800 | 21.30 | 29.69 | $127.97 | |||||
| Nicholas Thompson | $3,700 | 129 | 20.46 | 28.50 | $129.82 | ||||
| Steve Wheatcroft | $3,500 | 127 | 98 | 18.48 | 26.71 | $131.04 | |||
| Tom Hoge | $3,700 | 20.30 | 27.90 | $132.60 | |||||
| Whee Kim | $3,900 | 20.50 | 29.10 | $134.03 | |||||
| Oscar Fraustro | $3,500 | 17.20 | 26.11 | $134.03 | |||||
| Roger Sloan | $3,500 | 16.60 | 25.52 | $137.17 | |||||
| Ryan Armour | $3,500 | 15.70 | 24.32 | $143.91 | |||||
| Derek Ernst | $3,600 | 16.50 | 24.92 | $144.47 | |||||
| Chris DiMarco | $3,500 | 74 | 89 | 118 | 45 | 14.68 | 23.72 | $147.53 | |
| Scott Verplank | $3,500 | 109 | 13.46 | 22.53 | $155.34 | ||||
| Sonny Skinner | $3,500 | 13.00 | 21.93 | $159.57 | |||||
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | $3,700 | 10.50 | 20.74 | $178.40 | |||||
| Jim Renner | $3,600 | 103 | 10.42 | 20.14 | $178.73 | ||||
| Zac Blair | $5,100 | 19.70 | 27.31 | $186.77 | |||||
| J.J. Henry | $4,300 | 48 | 86 | 12.76 | 21.34 | $201.53 | |||
| Sean O’Hair | $4,700 | 92 | 20 | 15 | 13.58 | 23.13 | $203.22 | ||
| D.A. Points | $4,500 | 99 | 54 | 74 | 9.30 | 19.55 | $230.23 |