Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +7 |
| Bills Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 44 |
| Date | Sat, Dec. 17 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
This Saturday’s Week 15 NFL slate will conclude with an intra-division affair between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Entering play, Buffalo commands a two-game lead in the AFC East division standings over Miami with only four games remaining on the schedule for both teams. In this high-leverage divisional matchup, oddsmakers are expecting Buffalo to earn the victory, pricing the Bills as 7-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
In last week’s loss against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football, Tua Tagovailoa completed only 10-of-28 pass attempts – the worst single-game completion rate of his career, excluding his performance from Week 2, 2021 in which he threw only four pass attempts. Tagovailoa’s inefficiencies across his last two games have played a significant role in hurting Miami’s ability to possess the ball. In their last two losses, Miami had only 39 minutes and 48 seconds of possession, compared to 80 minutes and 12 seconds for their opponent. Far from an overreaction, there are now legitimate concerns about the Dolphins’ previously juggernaut-like offense. Left tackle Terron Armstead played through pectoral and toe injuries in Week 14, but allowed his first sack of the season – making it a legitimate question as to how effective he can be if not at 100 percent health. Protection has not been the only cause of the struggles, as Tagovailoa is only 22-for-46 throwing the football from a clean pocket during the losing streak. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Tagovailoa has struggled mightily with cold weather during the early portion of his career, completing only 55.9% of his passes with an average depth of target of only 5.9 yards in two cold weather road starts. Traveling to a hostile, cold environment on Saturday, this offense no longer looks infallible.
Defensively, the Dolphins could be in poor shape as well after they have been forced to play 157 snaps of football across the last two weeks. On the injury front, both safety Eric Rowe and safety Elijah Campbell are unlikely to play against the Bills, which will leave the Dolphins thin in the secondary. Having been in California for the last two weeks, adjusting to the eastern time, in addition to dealing with fatigue from time of possession issues could lead to major issues for this group against a high-powered Buffalo offense.
Buffalo Bills
Per Joe Schad, Josh Allen is 7-2 overall against Miami during his career, 4-0 at home, and has a 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go with a 104.4 quarterback rating. Since recovering from an elbow injury suffered in early November, Allen has a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio as he has continued to propel the AFC’s second-highest scoring offense. During the Bills’ four-game winning streak, this group ranks 8th in EPA/play, having used a balanced approach that has allowed them to have success both on the ground and through the air. The only notable absence offensively for Buffalo in this matchup will be right guard Ryan Bates, who is listed as out because of an ankle injury. Bates has been far from elite this year, allowing 22 quarterback pressures, but he has only allowed one sack in 828 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. His replacement, Greg Van Roten, allowed 37 quarterback pressures in 700 snaps last year with the New York Jets, but performed well in relief of Bates last weekend.
Defensive tackle Jordan Phillips has also been ruled out for Buffalo in this one, but his absence is unlikely to make a significant impact on the game. Per Pro Football Focus, Phillips has graded as worse than league average as both a run- and pass-defender so far in 2022. The more important news for the Bills is that linebacker Matt Milano returned to practice on Thursday after not practicing at all on Tuesday and Wednesday. He does not carry an injury designation into the weekend, meaning that he will be ready to go on Saturday. In two games since defensive end A.J. Epenesa, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and defensive end Greg Rousseau each returned to the field, Buffalo has allowed 10 points and 12 points, respectively to their opponent. This is one of the most talented groups in the NFL, even with Von Miller out for the season.
Dolphins vs. Bills – Picks & Predictions
On Saturday, the temperature is forecasted to be below freezing, with snow totaling one-to-three inches and winds expected to be between 15-30 miles-per-hour, per Weather.com. Warning of lake effect snow could result in a much more significant impact on the game if the storm ends up hitting near Orchard Park.
In the first meeting between the Dolphins and Bills this season, Miami was outgained 497-212, but edged-out a narrow victory as a result of some timely defensive stops and a few miscues from the Bills. In the rematch, Josh Allen and company will have the benefit of homefield, in addition to the added incentives that come with a revenge opportunity and having a chance to wrap-up the AFC East. The spread may seem large at first glance, but the Bills are more than capable of covering this number in this spot.
PICK: Bills -7 (-107, PointsBet)
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