Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +2.5 |
| Patriots Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Miami Dolphins will travel to Foxborough to play the New England Patriots in a game that has major implications for the final Wild Card position in the AFC. Heading into Week 17, both teams are in control of their postseason destiny, with New England facing a win-or-go-home situation this weekend. When these two teams met in Week 1, the Dolphins emerged victorious by a final score of 20-7, but news that Tua Tagovailoa could be on the sidelines for this contest have oddsmakers pricing the Patriots as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread in the rematch.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is rumored to have suffered a concussion late in the first half in Week 16 against the Green Bay Packers, but he remained on the field for the duration of the contest. In the second half, Tagovailoa completed only 7-of-13 pass attempts for 81 passing yards and three interceptions. Though it remains unclear as to whether the young signal caller truly suffered a diagnosable concussion in the loss, the fact remains that he suffered enough head trauma to exhibit concussion-like symptoms on Monday. As a result, Teddy Bridgewater will prepare as the starter for this weekend’s pivotal divisional matchup, with rookie Skylar Thompson serving as the backup. When Tagovailoa was on the sidelines earlier this season, the Dolphins scored only three points in the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by back-to-back weeks scoring fewer than 20 points against the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.
Since acquiring linebacker Bradley Chubb at the beginning of November, the Dolphins rank 20th among all teams in defensive EPA/play. In that span, Miami has allowed 32 points to the Chicago Bears, 33 points to the San Francisco 49ers, and 32 points to the Buffalo Bills, in addition to a combined 49 points to the Los Angeles Chargers and Green Bay Packers. This unit has struggled in all phases of the game and at all levels of the defense, failing to make life difficult for opponents on the ground or through the air.
New England Patriots
Since Mac Jones returned from injury to be a full-time starter in Week 8, New England ranks 29th in offensive EPA, 25th in Dropback EPA, and 28th in Rush EPA. In eight games, the Patriots are 4-4 overall, with two wins against the New York Jets, in addition to wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals – each of which is likely to be watching the playoffs from home next month. Further complicating the situation on the offensive side of the ball is the fact that both tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are dealing with injuries heading into this weekend after running into each other on a miscommunicated route in Week 16.
In their last nine games, New England trails only San Francisco in defensive EPA. This weekend, the Patriots have another opportunity to put together a strong performance, facing a Miami offense that is likely to be without their starting quarterback. In addition to facing a backup signal caller, the Patriots are well-equipped to slow down Marcus Jones and Jon Jones, each of whom has enough speed to contend with the Dolphins’ elite wide receiver tandem. On opening weekend of the 2022 campaign, the Patriots were able to consistently make Tagovailoa uncomfortable, who was pressured on 13 of his 37 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. In Week 4, Bridgewater was only 4-for-11 under pressure against the Bengals.
Dolphins vs. Patriots – Picks & Predictions
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins allowed 11 quarterback pressures and seven quarterback hurries against the New England Patriots in a 20-7 victory. However, right tackle Austin Jackson could be out for the rematch, and left tackle Terron Armstead is playing at less than 100% health after suffering a pectoral injury at the end of November. On the other side of this matchup, Mac Jones and company have given bettors little-to-no reason to be optimistic about their efforts on the offensive side of the ball. News of Tua Tagovailoa being in concussion protocol is likely to cause the market number on the total to plummet in the coming days – take the under in this spot.
PICK: Under 42.5 (-110, MGM)
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