Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, April 26th
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With just four games on tap tonight, I’m going to do a game-by-game and will list out some of my preferred plays from each.
Tampa at Baltimore – Chris Archer at Dylan Bundy
This game is really easy to break down. We have two high strikeout pitchers with home run risk in a hitters park against two high strikeout teams. The upside is clear to see for both of these pitchers. Bundy has been the better of the two so far this season with an excellent 31% strikeout rate and just 7% walks. There has been a lot of good fortune involved in just a 3% HR/FB rate for this fly ball pitcher, but he is controlling hard contact well, and Tampa is certainly the type of team that could allow him to keep this luck going. Dating back to last season, Bundy has been far better against right-handed batters and has been essentially untouchable this year at 41% K to righties. He’s pretty close to just average against lefties, and the fly balls are going to get to him at some point, but though Tampa will send a few lefties out against him, it’s nothing to be afraid of. Sure, maybe Brad Miller finds a home run here, but with the high strikeouts righties there is a huge ceiling here, and the overall lack of power from the lefties is enough to give me full confidence in Bundy in all formats.
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