Vikings vs. Packers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Vikings vs. Packers Odds
| Vikings Odds | +3 |
| Packers Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the division-leading Minnesota Vikings will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers. Entering play, the Vikings are one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles for the best record in the NFC, needing to win both of their remaining games to give themselves an opportunity to secure home field advantage throughout the postseason. Green Bay is a half-game behind the Washington Commanders for the final Wild Card spot in the conference. In this matchup, oddsmakers have Green Bay listed as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota’s offense shows up late
Minnesota’s offense is elite, but only in crunch time. In the first three quarters of games this year, the Vikings rank 24th in offensive EPA. In the 4th quarter and overtime, they rank 3rd in offensive EPA. The result of this team’s apparent lack of focus during the first 45 minutes of games has been 11 games decided by one score – all of which have been wins. Many pundits will point to Minnesota’s lackluster offensive metrics, 17th in offensive EPA, as a sign that Kirk Cousins and company have been more lucky than good. Yet, a more sophisticated look at the data suggests a unit that has enough talent to beat anyone, with their main vulnerability being a lack of mental fortitude to execute for a full 60 minutes.
Vikings get stops when they count
The Vikings’ defense is similarly capable of elite production, but has shown an unwillingness to execute for a full game. Ranking 14th overall in defensive EPA this fall, it is easy to categorize this unit as mediocre. However, the path to their overall result has not been linear. In the first three quarters of games, Minnesota’s defense ranks 27th in EPA. In the 4th quarter and overtime, they rank 4th in defensive EPA.
Key Injury News
As of this writing, center Garrett Bradbury has not participated in practice this week. In 530 pass-blocking snaps in 2022, Bradbury has allowed only 24 quarterback pressures (4.5% pressure-rate). His backup, Austin Schlottmann, has allowed 15 quarterback pressures in only 168 pass-blocking snaps across the last three weeks (8.9% pressure-rate). His absence could hurt Minnesota’s offense, both on the ground and through the air.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay offense peaking at the right time
Since Week 10, Green Bay ranks sixth among all teams in offensive EPA. In their last six contests, this group is averaging 26.5 points per game – scoring 30-plus points against both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles in that span. Playing at home this season, Aaron Rodgers owns an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, compared to an 11-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road. The veteran signal caller missed practice on Wednesday due to a knee injury he suffered in Week 16, but he is not concerned about his availability for this weekend’s action, per Matt Schneidman.
Packers defense playing at a high level
The return of linebacker De’Vondre Campbell has coincided with elite production from the Packers’ defense. In three games since Campbell rejoined the team, Green Bay leads the NFL in defensive EPA. Critics will argue that two of those three games have come against weak offenses, the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. Yet, there is little doubt that this unit now has elite talent at every level of the defense, with an emerging pass-rush, two premier cornerbacks, one of the best linebackers in the league, and Rudy Ford having a career year at safety. Expect this group to play well again on Sunday.
Key Injury News
Wide receiver Christian Watson was absent from practice on Wednesday after leaving last weekend’s affair against the Miami Dolphins with a hip injury. Watson has emerged as one of Green Bay’s top pass-catching options this year, and has received at least six targets in six consecutive games.
Left tackle David Bakhtiari returned to practice on Wednesday for the first time since undergoing an appendectomy earlier this month. Per Pro Football Focus, Bakhtiari ranks 9th out of 81 tackles this season in blocking grade, making him one of the most pivotal members of this Green Bay offense.
Vikings vs. Packers – Picks & Predictions
Playing at home in a must-win situation, Green Bay is poised for a strong start to the game. Considering Minnesota’s persistent struggles in the first three quarters of games in 2022, the first half spread is an appealing spot for bettors to target – trust Aaron Rodgers and company to come ready to play.
PICK: Packers -1.5 – 1st Half (-120, FanDuel)
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