MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tuesday, July 28: Dodgers vs Astros
A matchup between two of the top World Series contenders should be enough to draw eyeballs this evening. When you couple a great matchup on paper with the history between the Astros and Dodgers post the sign-stealing saga this past offseason, you get must-see television for a baseball fan. Walker Buehler takes the hill against an Astros team now scrambling to come up with solutions for a once-dominant pitching staff. Will a victory in Houston satiate a Dodgers’ team bent on revenge?
Here are MLB betting lines from online sportsbooks and MLB betting picks for tonight’s game.
Also read: MLB World Series Odds, Tips, & Predictions
MLB Betting Lines for Tuesday, July 28
Dodgers vs. Astros MLB Betting Picks
Starting Pitchers
- Astros: Framber Valdez LHP (4-7, 5.86 ERA)
- Dodgers: Walker Buehler RHP (14-4, 3.26 ERA)
The Astros have been regular-season favorites in 79 consecutive games, but that streak comes to an end tonight at Minute Maid Park against the Dodgers.
Make no mistake. The pitching scales tip wildly towards the Los Angeles side with Walker Buehler on the bump tonight. While Buehler will be on a short leash to start the season, a handful of Buehler innings surmounts Houston’s Framber Valdez offering. Dustin May should piggyback Buehler into the back end of the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Buehler completed a spectacular first full season with the Dodgers in 2019. Over 182.1 innings, Buehler compiled 215 strikeouts, with a 3.37 xFIP and 1.04 WHIP. Buehler did allow a bit of hard contact (41.8%) which likely contributed to his 1.0 HR/9. Buehler will face an Astros’ lineup rife with power — averaging an 87.9 exit velocity and .231 ISO across the board in 2019. Buehler will need to limit base runners early to survive the Houston lineup for 4-5 innings.
Framber Valdez is not Walker Buehler. The Astros’ pitcher feels like a sacrificial lamb as the Astros try to hang in there against a dominant Dodgers’ staff. Valdez will strike out enough lefties (24.7% in 2019) to neutralize some of the Dodgers’ sluggers. That said, I am not sure where the answer for Mookie Betts is for the young hurler. Luckily for Houston, and Valdez, the Astros continue to provide ample run support for their staff. Opening against the Mariners, the Astros already have 29 runs through four games. Nobody will mistake the Los Angeles staff for that of Seattle, but the Houston bats seem poised for another strong offensive season in 2020.
Of course, questions about retaliation will be discussed all day today as the Dodgers travel to Houston. With overwhelming concerns about player health and a very short season, I just don’t see anything really getting out of hand tonight. The Astros will already be scrambling after the loss of Justin Verlander and the Dodgers cannot afford any type of discipline in a shortened season.
So, where will we go with tonight’s pick? The Astros seem outmatched tonight but the price on PointsBet is extremely favorable. A +135 price for the Astros tonight means a 42.5% breakeven percentage for a bet on Houston. Given the uncertainty with Walker Buehler and the hot start for the Houston bats, I think the numbers favor making a play on Houston at home. Projection systems will likely spit out a better probability than 42.5% for Houston. If this number moves at all towards Houston, this will likely be a stay-away. I am taking Houston at the +135 price tag.
MLB Betting Pick: Houston Astros +135 (PointsBet)
MLB Prop Bets for Dodgers vs. Astros
Walker Buehler Under 3.5 Strikeouts +134 (Fanduel)
The number is pretty low, but Buehler’s short leash tonight puts a high strikeout total in great jeopardy. The Astros — especially the top of the order — are not prone to strikeouts versus right-handed pitching (15.7%). Normally, I would run away but a +134 price gives us a breakeven outcome of about 42.7% on this bet. Projections will probably put Buehler at just below 5 innings making this line really snug. I don’t mind a half unit on the under given the price and Buehler’s uncertainty.
Players to Hit a Home Run (FanDuel)
Framber Valdez finished 70.2 innings last season with a 1.1 HR/9. The Dodgers are not short on power and will see a very favorable park shift for power. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an odds boost on a Mookie Betts home run to +500. I also don’t mind a stab at Kike Hernandez and his 40.8 FB%. That said, Kike is always a pinch-hit risk.
Mookie Betts +500
Kike Hernandez +600
George Springer +360
Springer brings a .322 ISO and 45.7 Hard% against righties to the plate tonight. If you want to take a crack at a home run against Buehler or May, he will see the most at-bats.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images