Walker Buehler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Despite just a six game holiday slate on Monday night, we find three of the 12 starting pitchers exceeding $10K on either site tonight, though none do so on both and no other pitcher reaches $9K on either site tonight. Walker Buehler costs $10.3K on FanDuel tonight. He is both the most expensive pitcher and the top projected one on the board, though not so much do to his own performance. Buehler has struck out just 10 of his last 73 batters, driving his season strikeout rate below 20%. While he hasn’t had a single game swinging strike rate below 9.8% since his first start and his 12.3% season rate ties a career high, a 13.7 CStr% is a career low. Buehler is getting by on control (6.4%) and contact management (48.4 GB%, 86.7 mph EV, 4.3% Barrels/BBE). While he’s completed five innings in all of his starts, he’s recorded sixth inning outs just four times. You’d think the lack of strikeouts with an ERA below three would allow him to pitch even deeper into games, but not the case. All estimators are more than one-quarter of a run above his 2.91 ERA with a 3.95 SIERA being the worst. What’s appealing about Buehler tonight is the matchup (Pirates 77 wRC+, 26.2 K% on the road, 85 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) and the park. Considering weather factors, Dodger Stadium may be the most negative run environment on the slate. For over $1K less, Buehler is also the second best projected value on DraftKings.

Zac Gallen costs $10.1K on FD, but $700 less on DK. The six runs he allowed in his last start represents more than half his season total (11). While he’s also struck out just eight of his last 45 batters with seven walks, Gallen’s produced a 19.0 K-BB% on the season with just an 86.3 mph EV (6.0% Barrels/BBE) and only one estimator (3.66 xFIP) above three and a half. Atlanta leans predominantly right-handed and have scuffled both on the road (87 wRC+, 26.2 K%) and vs RHP (92 wRC+, 26.8 K%). However, RHBs actually have a higher wOBA (.306) and xwOBA (.318) against Gallen than LHBs (.279, .269) since last season. The roof in Arizona is scheduled to be open tonight and while that often actually means a lower scoring environment, it’s certainly weather dependent. Gallen is the second best projected pitcher on the slate and top five projected value on either site.

The oddity here is Drew Rasmussen costing $10.1K on DraftKings. While he’s struck out seven in each of his last two starts, he’s only exceed five strikeouts in one additional start. He does have a 49.6 GB%, which has helped keep his barrels to just 6.6% of contact with only three of the eight leaving the yard. Rasmussen has exceeded five innings just once this season, but a 17.9 K-BB% generates estimators all below three and a half, If also all above his 2.68 ERA, which should continue to benefit from a great defense (+5 Runs Prevented). The Rangers have just an 86 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP and the park isn’t a bad place to pitch in if the roof is closed (all bets are off if it’s open), but the workload makes the cost difficult to bare on most slates, even with a $1.2K lower cost on FanDuel, you’re unlikely to receive a Quality Start. However, Rasmussen is the fourth best projected pitcher on a six game slate, though PlateIQ projections are subject to change.

Just one game short of a full slate, Walker Buehler is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites and also the only one on DraftKings. He can be considered the top pitcher on the board because nobody else on it has consistently pitched as deep into games and few have a higher strikeout rate. With his strikeout rate now up to 27%, Buehler’s worst estimator is just a 3.70 SIERA, while he’s failed to produce a quality start just three times this year. A .237 BABIP, 85 LOB% and 9.5 HR/FB have his ERA sitting at 2.09, which factors into the cost as well and may bring down his value slightly, but five batters in the projected opposing lineup have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP and Buehler struck out 10 of these Mets in his last start.

The pitcher who does lead the slate with a 30.3 K% (two start minimum) misses $10K by just $100 on DraftKings and is $600 more on FanDuel. Along with the elite strikeout rate (15.1 SwStr%), Robbie Ray has cut down his walk rate to 6.7%, but has also failed to allow a home run in five of his last seven stats. This, despite a five point drop in his ground ball rate from 39.6% on the season to 34.6% over this span. His exit velocity is down over two and a half mph (88.4), nearly dropping it under 90 mph on the season and dropping his Barrels/BBE mark into single digits (9.5%) and his xERA to 3.66. As a slight negative, the Tigers now have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP, as they’ve been pummeling southpaws over the last few months, but five of nine projected starts still exceed a 23.5 K% vs LHP this year.

In his first major league start in two years, Chris Sale allowed two home runs to a Baltimore offense that handles LHP pretty well, but also struck out eight of 20 batters (18 SwStr%) without a walk, 58.3% of his contact on the ground and a 77.4 mph EV, while holding steady with his 2019 velocity. Is it that easy? The Red Sox slowly built him up through five rehab starts to 89 pitches in his first start, so there shouldn’t be any workload concerns, but he already costs $10.7K on FanDuel ($1K less on DraftKings). It’s tough to argue he’s in a great spot (Texas 74 wRC+ on the road, 79 wRC+ vs LHP). However, while there are three batters in the projected Texas lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP this year, nobody else exceeds 18.2%. Sale will also be pitching in the second most positive run environment on the slate with a possible weather boost, according to Weather Edge (though that could change).

The only other pitcher above $9K on both sites is Lucas Giolito. Consistency hasn’t been his strong suit this year. In fact, he’s lasted just four innings in two of his last three starts, but the overall numbers are still fairly strong, while he’s produced quality starts in half of his 24 efforts. With a 20.8 K-BB%, contact neutral estimators run in the upper threes, but there’s a bit of conflict between a 15.6 HR/FB and 7.4% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed 24 home runs, but just 27 barrels. Hence, a disconnect between a 4.01 FIP and 3.40 xERA, his worst and best estimators. Thus, Giolito may be the top value among the top arms because despite Tampa Bay’s 110 wRC+ at home and 112 wRC+ vs RHP, it’s a securely negative run environment, unaffected by weather, with five of nine projected batters owning a 24.5 K% or worse against RHP this year.

No pitcher on an eight game Wednesday night slate reaches $10K on both sites tonight, though three pitchers hit that price point on at least one. Walker Buehler ($10.6K DK) has struck out just eight of 49 Giants over his last two starts, to drop his season to strikeout rate to 25.3%. His velocity has decreased over a mile per hour and his rate of Barrels/BBE has nearly doubled from 6.5% last year to 11.1%, but his ground ball rate is up to 42.2% and his exit velocity is down from 90 mph to 88.7 mph. Both are league average marks. His 50.4% four seam usage is the second lowest mark of his career. Virtually all of his estimators hover around three and a half, about a run above his 2.66 ERA (.235 BABIP, 84.1 LOB%). The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP in a negative run environment tonight. Walker also potentially has a pitcher friendly umpiring situation and while three of eight projected batters for St Louis exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020, the other five non-pitcher spots are below 21%. Buehler should be fine here and could be the top pitcher on the slate, but players do have the option of paying down (or at least less) tonight.

An odd decision that DraftKings and FanDuel have made is pricing at least one pitcher in the Marlins vs Blue Jays matchup at $10K tonight. Written in Alek Monoah’s Fangraphs’ scouting report in January…”Once softer and relatively unathletic, he’s transformed himself from a high-effort relief type into a potential workhorse mid-rotation starter.“ Monoah did more than back that assessment up dominating his three starts at AAA (40.9 K%) before being called up and striking out seven of 22 Yankees over six two-hit innings without allowing a run at Yankee Stadium. On the 13 balls the Yankees did put into play, they had an 80.1 mph EV. He has the potential to dominate the Marlins (86 wRC+, 26.4 K%, 9.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but the most expensive arm on FanDuel already (exactly $10K) seems excessive. He’s nearly $2K less on DraftKings, where he probably should and will appear in many lineups tonight.

Pablo Lopez continues to have stark home/road splits. While his K-BB% is 2.5 points higher at home in his career and the GB% is 3.6 points higher, the biggest difference is in a 9.0 HR/FB at home and 16.5 HR/FB on the road. He’s allowed three of his five home runs on the road this season in five starts, but has really only had one strong road start. If we trust the overall numbers, his 16.1 K-BB%, 47.4 GB% and 85.5 mph EV are marks of a good pitcher. Estimators are spread out between three and four, depending on how much you value the contact profile. The Blue Jays have a 113 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. They have a 150 team wRC+ over the last week. He is $10K on DraftKings and nearly $2K less on FanDuel, but a questionable choice on either site. The takeaway here is that paying for the most expensive arms tonight may not be ideal.

The highest priced pitcher on either site is John Means. At least on the main slate, as Shane Bieber is pitching a little earlier today. Of course, this is due to his no hitter last time out…or is it? Taking a look at Means’s game log, you’ll notice that he’s allowed more than three hits just twice this year (1.58 BABIP). Obviously, that’s not sustainable, but on top of that, he’s struck out at least nine in three of his last four and has a 16.3 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He’s allowed 21 hits and 11 Barrels (10.4%) with five HRs, despite an 85.5 mph EV. This is all insanity. He’s thrown his four-seamer 51% of the time and it’s not a very good pitch. Four of his five HRs have come off of it and it has a .363 xwOBA. However, no other pitch exceeds a .200 xwOBA, while both his changeup (41.5 Whiff%) and slider (55.6 Whiff%) have been completely dominant. The BABIP and 100% strand rate scream regression, but the underlying skills seem to have taken off as well. Facing the Mets isn’t ideal. However, there are four batters above a 24 K% vs LHP in the projected lineup and they are missing a big RH bat in J.D. Davis. Means did throw 113 pitches last time out, but got an extra day, so that shouldn’t affect him much, but this price tag may be too high. However, should ownership projections show some popular skepticism, the skills have increased to the point where he might be a strong leverage play.

Walker Buehler is a few hundred cheaper on either site. He has somewhat conquered issues with his fastball (lower velocity, increased xwOBA) by throwing it a bit less in recent starts (above 70% each of first two starts, below 60% in each of last four). As a result, he’s struck out 27 of his last 75 with a 14.2 SwStr%. His 3.13 ERA is in line with most estimators until you come to the contact profile. He’s allowed 12.6% Barrels/BBE, which is up to 15.2% over these last three starts, but felt a bit less due to the increased strikeouts. Just five of his 13 Barrels have left the yard, driving his xERA up to 3.93. Most of the hard contact has come on the fastball (seven of 12 extra-base hits). Buehler also has the pleasure of one of the highest upside spots on the board in one of the most negative run environments. Four of eight Mariners in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019 with the middle of the lineup (four through six) all below a .150 ISO over that span. The Mariners also lose the DH in an NL park. Buehler is likely your top overall arm tonight, but expect players to gravitate that way. Paying down in GPPs is a viable option.

A negative run environment with an additional potential weather boost for the only $10K pitcher on the board seems like a near cinch decision. Batters from either side of the plate fall within a .268 to .291 wOBA and xwOBA against Walker Buehler since 2019 and the Padres have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but there are a few reasons you might wish to go underweight on him tonight. The concerning signs start with a 17.1 K% and 9.9 SwStr% through three starts (70 batters). His velocity is down over a mile per hour and he is lucky that just two of his six Barrels (10.5% of contact) have left the yard. Despite the lower velocity, he’s throwing his four-seamer more than ever (60.4%). Adding to his good fortune, the pitch has a .288 wOBA, much lower than it’s .363 xwOBA with a 13.4 Whiff%. The pitch was below a .200 wOBA and xwOBA with a 26.1 Whiff% last year. While Buehler is helping the cause with just one walk so far, the 92.1 LOB% won’t sustain for long. This doesn’t necessarily mean you want to load up on San Diego bats tonight. This is still a terrible hitting environment tonight and the Dodgers have an excellent bullpen.

Conditions and bullpen aptitude are also considerations for Dodger bats too. Ryan Weathers now seems to have a more stable place in this rotation with recent injury news. The former first round pick and second generation MLB pitcher struck out three of the 13 Dodgers he faced in his first start with only a single hit and two walks. He hadn’t exceeded A-Ball prior to this year, where he had strong walk rates, but marginal strikeout numbers. He’s been two-thirds a 95 mph four-seamer and one-third slider. Scouting reports suggest he also has a decent changeup, but he’s barely shown it to major league hitters. The lack of a third offering is likely to limit his workload against the Dodgers again tonight and the Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball (2.67 ERA, 2.66 SIERA). However, Justin Turner has smoked lefties (147 wRC+, .278 ISO since 2019) and just about everyone else in the league this season (214 wRC+ overall). Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has actually struggled against LHP since 2019 (103 wRC+, .142 ISO) and has been in and out of the lineup this year with nagging injury issues.

Walker Buehler got a late start this year and just hasn’t looked right yet. The 5.21 ERA with a .167 BABIP is alarming, but despite five runs crossing the plate last time out in 4.2 innings, the velocity bumped up and he struck out five of 22 Angel. Buehler also had a 19.5 SwStr% in his previous start against the Giants. Perhaps he’s getting on track. Only one of his six Barrels have come over his last two starts. He has a career 21.7 K-BB% and should slice through the Rockies at home. Players may have a chance to get him at reduced ownership due to recent results. The Rockies have a 67 wRC+, 25.3 K% and 6.7 HR/FB on the road. The bottom half of the lineup is generally full of inferior hitters. Buehler is down to $8.5K and the main concern may be the workload, but he’s increased his pitch count in every outing so far (89 last start) and should be ready for close to 100 here. Unless you're paying for Walker Buehler, there really isn't another sure bet on the board.

Although each of the games tonight are double elimination, meaning any pitchers are candidates for a quick hook, Stephen Strasburg may have the longest leash of the four, simply because the Washington bullpen has been in shambles all season. Patrick Corbin should be ready for an extended outing if necessary, but if Strasburg pitches anything like he has in his previous two outings though, he may take care of the entire thing by himself. He’s struck out 14 of the 31 batters he’s faced, allowing just five hits and a single run without a walk. For the season, he’s tied for the top strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and in sole position of the top SIERA (3.49), DRA (2.13), Z-O-Swing (25.6%), GB rate (51.1%) and xwOBA (.263). The problem, of course, is that he has the worst park neutral matchup on the board (Dodgers 115 wRC+, 21 K%, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP). The lineup is expected to feature a front five all with at least a .365 wOBA against RHP this year with only Justin Turner (.182 ISO) below a .239 ISO. Fortunately for Strasburg, this is not a neutral park. It’s a very negative run environment, but that also goes to establish how difficult the Dodger offense really is as well. Strasburg was elite against batters from either side of the plate this year (both below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA). While he and Buehler rate very closely overall tonight, Strasburg may be the better value (and perhaps the top value) at $300 less on FanDuel (exactly $10K).

Walker Buehler has the highest aEV on the board tonight (88.6 mph), but has the top FIP (3.01) and allowed the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (5.4%), while comparing very favorably with Strasburg and Flaherty in terms of strikeout rate (29.2%), SIERA (3.50), DRA (2.89) and xwOBA (.275). While he’s facing a nearly neutral offense vs RHP (100 wRC+) in a very negative run environment, the Nationals had just a 21 K% vs RHP that matches the Dodgers for the lowest mark on the board. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup features only two batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, neither in the top half of the lineup. Batters from either side of the plate were within a .260-.280 wOBA & xwOBA range against Buehler this season, making Anthony Rendon (153 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) easily the top plays here, even if it’s incredibly obvious. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) is fairly cheap though. When including price tags, the margins favoring one pitcher over another tonight are extremely close. It’s really going to matter which way the ball bounces, though Buehler has been a bit prone to blowups, especially in the second half (four ERs or more four times in 13 starts). However, he dominated the Nationals, striking out eight of 21 batters with three walks, a hit and no runs in the first game of this series and is the most rested starter on the board.

While the Nationals (100 wRC+ and a slate low 21 K% vs RHP) and Dodgers (103 wRC+ and a slate high 17.7 HR/FB vs LH) aren’t typically offenses we look to oppose in daily fantasy, this is the game to target pitching in on a two game slate. Walker Beuhler (29.2%) and Patrick Corbin (28.5%) exceed the strikeout rates of the pitchers in Atlanta by about 10 points and are pitching in a much more negative run environment. Corbin finished up September with a board high 30 K% and 16.1 SwStr%, although he did wreck his ERA by allowing three HRs to Cleveland in his last start. The elite strikeout rate did allow Corbin to skirt issues with hard contact this season. His 88.9 mph aEV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE are easily worst on the board, though his .303 xwOBA was second best. The Dodgers don’t hit LHP as well as they do RHPs, but don’t mistake that to believe they aren’t still a quality offense against southpaws. Regardless, Corbin still may be the best value on the board at $400 to $800 cheaper than Beuhler on either site.

Buehler has tremendous upside as well. He struck out 11 or more six times this year and did not struggle with contact as much as Corbin (88.6 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE), but he was also not beyond being prone to the occasional blow up. Eight times, opponents put at least five runs on the board against him, four times since the All-Star break. The Nationals are the most contact prone offense on the board and Buehler is the highest priced. It’s really close between he and Corbin for the top overall spot on the board tonight.

Corbin’s .319 xwOBA vs RHBs is the only wOBA or xwOBA mark above .300 that either pitcher allowed to batters from either side of the plate this season. GPP players are certainly going to want to look at some bats here as well though. A.J. Pollock (134 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Justin Turner (142 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP) are best with the platoon advantage and none run a price tag any higher than Soto’s $4.1K cost on DraftKings. Cody Bellinger (150 wRC+, .319 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are so good it may not matter. The run line for the Dodgers is currently on the rise this afternoon, now eclipsing four implied runs (4.28) to push them past the Cardinals (4.16) for the second spot on the board. The Nationals are well behind the pack at 3.22 implied runs.

It’s quite difficult to navigate the pitching on tonight’s slate. Among the several pitchers, including many younger arms, who have had their workloads more limited for most of this month, many of the top pitchers are pitching for teams who can’t much better their post-season positions and are merely tuning up for the big show next week. Look no further than the highest strikeout rate on the board, Tyler Glasnow (33.5%), who fits both categories as he works his way back from injury.

James Paxton (29.5%) and Walker Buehler (29.1%) are the only other pitchers above a 26 K% on the board tonight. Paxton has allowed a single ER over his last four starts and is in a high upside spot against a Texas offense that struggles against LHP and strikes out a ton. However, he’s still a fly ball prone pitcher (38.6%) in Texas in a game where the Yankees are less invested in the outcome than in having Paxton ready to go against the Twins next week.

Buehler is in a very similar spot, but his matchup is matchup is similarly advantageous in a much better park. He pitches in San Francisco, where the Giants have a 78 wRC+ and 9.3 HR/FB. The projected lineup for the Giants includes just two players above .190 ISO against RHP and just three above a .325 wOBA. You may not have even noticed that Buehler hasn’t reached 100 pitches in seven straight starts. That’s because he’s been efficient enough to complete seven innings twice in that span. In fact, he’s gone at least seven innings 11 times this year and has only six starts where he’s thrown more than 100 pitches, three with more than 102. Buehler has shown the ability to get deep into games without a ton of pitches and this seems like a spot where he could do so again. Still, it’s a risk paying up for any of tonight’s high priced arms considering the circumstances.