MLB Daily Plays: Mon, Aug 18
What’s up Grinder nation, welcome into another Monday edition of Daily Plays. I wanted to take a minute and say thank you to everyone out there for all the positive feedback on the DFS piece that aired on Outside the Lines yesterday. I love this industry and hope I represented all of you in the best way and we as a collective community continue to evolve and grow! As for tonight, a smaller seven game slate so let’s jump into who I’m focusing on for this evening.
Player Pricing Note: Daily Plays will help you find valuable plays each day/week across the MLB, NBA , NFL and NHL. Just keep in mind that players’ prices vary from site-to-site. To check the price of a player for the site that you play on, make sure to click on the $ dollar-sign icon next to a player’s name for a list of their prices on each site.
Starting Pitchers
Top Play
Chris Sale I’m sure some will point to Sale’s bad outing against this same Orioles lineup back in June and a team that hits left handers extremely well and have reservations about rostering Sale tonight. Both valid points, but that last start came in Camden Yards and Sale has been flat out one of the best pitchers in the league all season and has been almost unhittable in his home ballpark, allowing a miniscule .186 BAA and a wOBA of just .228. Sale also does a great job of keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only seven home runs on the year which negates some of the Orioles strength from the right side of the plate. And oh yeah, did I mention Sale’s strikeout upside is as high as anyone’s in the league, averaging 10.38 K’s per 9 and that number jumps up to 11.37 K’s per 9 in his home starts. He’s the biggest name on the board and on a short slate, don’t get cute just lock him in and move on.
Value Play
Jason Vargas Not a ton of value in the SP category tonight in my opinion, but I love the way Vargas is pitching right now and he tops the list of “values” for me this evening. Vargas is coming off his best performance of the year with a three hit complete game shutout against a very good Athletics lineup. His strikeout upside is somewhat limited as evidenced by his 6.03 K/9 mark but he’s a guy that can eat up some innings, going 7+ in six of his last ten outings. He’s been tremendous in road starts this year with just a 2.56 ERA and the Twins are striking out at a 23.8% clip this season and are hitting just .247 with a .678 OPS, which ranks 25th against LHP in MLB. The upside isn’t massive, but the price is right and he’s been a very steady option all year and tonight is no different.
Other Pitchers I like tonight: Jordan Zimmermann
Catcher
Top Play
Wilson Ramos, Ramos is on a good run right now, riding a mini 5 game hitting streak and has hit safely in nine of his last ten games,
including five multi hit performances. He’s also been very good against LHP with a .320 BA this season and a career .308 average. The Nats should be in a great spot against homer prone Vidal Nuno who’s allowed a .352 wOBA and 16 HR to right handed bats this season and Ramos price is a very good value across the industry.
Value Play
Salvador Perez, Perez has really been a rollercoaster ride all season with peaks and valleys of hot and cold streaks. The best thing is his price remains low and even though he’s in one of his valleys right now, I love the matchup for him this evening. He logged a big game yesterday and hopefully it’s a precursor to tonight in a matchup with rookie right hander Trevor May. Perez has shown a good power stroke against RHP, hitting 12 of his 15 HR’s against righties this season.
Other Catchers I like tonight: Evan Gattis
1st Base
Top Play
Freddie Freeman, Ole double F is swinging a very good stick right now, totaling 14 hits over his last ten contests, seven of which were XBH’s, and 4 multi hit performances in his last nine games. Freeman has been a beast all year against RHP with a .393 wOBA and the Bravos roll into Pittsburgh to face Vance Worley and the Buccos tonight. Worley has surprisingly been a very effective pitcher this season, but I think it’s a bit of smoke and mirrors and he was exposed in his last start at Detroit. His price is up but Freeman makes for a tremendous option at first base in all game types tonight.
Value Play
Matt Adams, I’ve been accused of having a man crush on Adams as I always seem to feature him, but a guy at his price who crushes righties equals man crush in my book. OK, enough on my feelings towards another man, let’s jump into the numbers which show Adams with hits in five straight games, three of those games being multi hit outings. Adams is hitting .331 with a .373 wOBA and his opposition tonight, Mike Leake, has had his issues getting LHH out. Leake is coughing up a .362 wOBA to left handers this season and has been homer prone, allowing 1.22 HR/9 to left handed bats.
Other 1B I like tonight: Albert Pujols, Jose Abreu
2nd Base
Top Play
Robinson Cano, Steady as they go, Cano is always a favorite of mine at the position because he’s very consistent but brings a high ceiling to the table as well. He’s racked up four multi hit games and has gone yard three times over his last ten games and gets to take cuts against one of our favorite DFS pitchers to target against in JYD Jerome Williams. Williams has bounced around like a pinball and has now landed on the pitching desperate Phillies. Left handed bats have given him fits this season, hitting .329 with a .395 wOBA and a whopping .905 OPS. Cano is crushing RHP this season, hitting a robust .359 to go along with a .412 wOBA and Citizens Bank Park ranks 8th for lefties and 2nd in home runs according to our Ballpark factors charts here at RG so investing in some Mariner bats looks like a wise move tonight.
Value Play
Kolten Wong, Wong has certainly cooled off recently but that helps drive his price down and he is shaping up to be a nice value and someone who shouldn’t be as highly owned tonight with guys like Cano, Rendon and Pedroia all with good matchups. That makes him a great GPP option as we know he has some pop in his bat as well and is another Cards lefty I’ll be targeting against Leake.
Other 2B I like tonight: Anthony Rendon, Dustin Pedroia
Shortstop
Top Play
Ian Desmond, Desmond rolls into tonights game with a nice seven game hitting streak going and he’s been showing his power/speed combo over the last few weeks with 3 HR and a couple of stolen bases over his last ten games. Desmond has been great against LHP this season with a .357 wOBA and I’ve already laid out Nuno’s struggles against RHH and the Nats bats look like a great place to start your research against a homer prone right hander at home with Desmond being my favorite of the bunch.
Value Play
Erick Aybar, Aybar has been average at best over the past month or so but that’s not going to keep me away from a guy at a great pricepoint across the industry who generally slots into the 5 hole in a good Halos lineup. Aybar has 52 RBI on the year so he’s been getting the job done in the run producing department and is hitting .283 against right handers this year. Brandon Workman has been OK this year, but hasn’t hit double digits on FD in any of his last six outings and faces another tall task against Aybar and the Angels tonight.
Other SS I like tonight: Xander Bogaerts
3rd Base
Top Play
Kyle Seager, Another Seattle bat that I love for tonight’s action is lefty Seager against good ol JYD. Seager has three multi hit games over his last five and Philly is a great hitter’s environment for left handed bats. Seager has been a beast against RHP in 2014, putting together a .385 wOBA and has hit 16 of his 18 home runs from the left side of the plate. He’s been tremendous driving in runs as well with 77 RBI on the season and the M’s should have plenty of run producing opportunities against Williams this evening.
Value Play
Conor Gillaspie, Gillaspie has quietly put together a tremendous season, and his numbers against right handed pitching are off the charts, hitting .341 with a .393 wOBA and he has hits in eight of his last nine games. The Sox get Bud Norris at home tonight and although he’s shown some improvement, he has been knocked around for 34 hits over his last five starts and has given up a career .349 wOBA to left handed hitters.
Other 3B I like tonight: Matt Carpenter
Outfielders
Top Plays
Kole Calhoun, A small hiccup yesterday aside, Calhoun has been one of the hottest hitters in the game over the last two weeks, racking up 15 hits in his previous 7 games before yesterday. He’s also been showing his power stroke, hitting two bombs and driving in eight runs in his last five games. He’s hitting .297 against RHP this year with a .372 wOBA and his price seems to remain in the same place so I’ll certainly be taking advantage of that against Workman tonight.
Justin Upton, Upton is locked into one of his patented hot streaks right now and that’s always a good time to factor him into your research. He’s riding a current eight game hitting streak and has gone yard four times over his last ten games, including a bomb last night, to go along with 11 RBI over that same stretch. Upton is much better against LHP but does own a respectable .359 wOBA against right handers and has hit 15 of his 23 home runs against RHP. Again, I expect Worley to come crashing back down to earth sooner than later and will be targeting a few Braves sticks tonight.
Alex Gordon, Gordon turned it up over the weekend, turning in three straight multi hit games and has hits in nine of his last ten games, including three home runs over that stretch. He’s hitting .294 with .356 wOBA against right handers this season and is a favorite cash game option of mine as he always seems to put points on the board. Trevor May’s minor league peripherals look pretty good but the Royals are a patient team at the dish that could put him in some extended counts and shorten his outing. I like the way Gordon is swinging the bat right now and you’ll see him in a bunch of my lineups tonight.
Value Plays
Jon Jay, Jay has been on a tear at the plate, hitting safely in his last nine games and he’s driven in nine runs and gone deep twice during the streak. Jay is a career .296 hitter against right handed pitching and if you can’t tell by know, I’ll be targeting lefty St Louis bats against Leake and his .362 wOBA given up to left handed bats.
Jay Bruce, One of the ultimate boom/bust options in the game, I’m betting on the boom part tonight against right hander Justin Masterson. Masterson has been a disaster this season, especially against left handed bats where he’s been knocked around for a .310 average and a whopping .399 wOBA. We know Bruce has serious power in his bat and the price isn’t killer so I’ll roll the dice on him on a short slate a bunch tonight.
Other OF I like tonight: Marlon Byrd, Yoenis Cespedes, Travis Snider, Alejandro De Aza
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