MLB Daily Plays: Tue, August 19
Welcome to another random Tuesday in the MLB DFS season. Well, maybe its not just any Tuesday as FanDuel has posted a $25, $125,000 Super Strikeout in their lobby. We’re getting a little spoiled these days, but that’s pretty awesome. Additionally it appears that tonight is your chance to qualify for the DK 3.3 million dollar FBC which takes place in beautiful Atlantis. If that isn’t motivation enough to play this evening I don’t know what to tell you, Alright, enough yapping, let’s get to the picks.
STARTING PITCHERS
Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg fanboy, and fellow RotoGrinders analyst DraftCheat would be proud of my selection of Stephen over Max Scherzer as my top pitcher to take the bump this evening. Granted, the difference in salary is what makes this decision much easier. The Nats now have three consecutive walk-off victories and are feeling really good about themselves coming into tonight. Stras should keep the momentum going as his home numbers are just silly and the Arizona offense is so decimated by injuries that they are rather punchless these days. This helps explain WAS being a – 240 favorite, while the over/under sits at just 7.
John Lackey – I feel a little dirty recommending John, but he feels like a nice value this evening. He finally put together a solid outing for the Cardinals the last time he took the bump (granted it was against the Padres). Tonight he’ll take on the Reds who are starting to get healthy, but Vegas doesn’t seem all that concerned. St. Louis is a – 170 favorite in a game with a 7.5 over/under. I wouldn’t feel great about rolling him out as my only SP on a one pitcher site, but there are many bats that I’d like to squeeze in, so he makes for an acceptable SP2.
Other pitchers to consider – Max Scherzer, Scott Kazmir, Hisashi Iwakuma, Francisco Liriano, Mike Fiers
CATCHER
Buster Posey – Posey vs a LHP is one of our go-to splits to exploit. In a 3 year sample from 2011-13 Buster raked a ridiculous .357 AVG / 1.033 OPS vs lefties. Additionally, opposing SP Tsuyoshi Wada has been much more vulnerable to right-handed sticks in his short MLB tenure.
Salvador Perez – While not the case this year necessarily, but historically Sal has feasted on LHPs. Tonight he is the benefactor of the massive park bump that is the leap from Kauffman Stadium to Coors Field. One word of caution is that Perez exited last night’s game due to an issue with his knee. Watching the game it didn’t appear too serious, but if his backup Eric Kratz (who doubledonged off the bench last night) draws the start, I don’t mind him at his bargain basement price.
Other catchers to consider – Jonathan Lucroy, Evan Gattis, John Jaso, Eric Kratz
FIRST BASE
Billy Butler – I’m looking in the direction of Coors Field yet again. Its hard to overstate how dramatic the ballpark change is for all the Royals, and when you factor in the fact that Tyler Matzek will be pitching, the man known as Country Breakfast is in an excellent position to succeed this evening. Tyler has been getting roughed up all year, and most recently he’s given up 15ER in his last 15IP.
Matt Adams – Generally speaking I’m a little hesitant to spend down and save money at 1B, but tonight it feels like a safe proposition. The man known as Big City continues to inexplicably be underpriced. He’s raked vs RHPs this year to the tune of a .335 AVG / .877 OPS and the regression monster finally has started to pick on (opposing SP) Alfredo Simon.
Other 1Bs to consider – David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Anthony Rizzo, Justin Morneau, Albert Pujols, Brandon Moss
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve – The diminutive second baseman is one of my favorite players, but you can’t accuse me of bias with this suggestion. Jose is hitting a ludicrous .424 AVG / 1.014 OPS vs southpaws this season and Chris Capuano has historically struggled vs righties. Altuve also leads the AL in SBs, which is just one more way he can help pay off his hefty, yet justifiable asking price.
Rickie Weeks – Whenever the Brewers face a lefty, Rickie gets plugged in the lineup, and is almost always positioned in an ideal slot in the batting order. J.A. Haap has had his moments this year (for which some dub him Cy) but he still has blowup potential. The Brewers have a number of players who prefer to hit vs a lefty, which upgraded Rickie’s RBI and run scoring opportunity.
Other 2Bs to consider – Jason Kipnis, Robinson Cano, Matt Carpenter
THIRD BASE
Aramis Ramirez – I just mentioned how some Brewers prefer to hit against LHPs. Well here is one of them. Aramis has smashed lefties this year by posting a .338 AVG / 1.018 OPS against them. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’ll be the benefactor of getting to hit in his sweet home ballpark, which is ideal for dongs.
Chris Johnson – We talk about L/R splits all the time when breaking down daily matchups, and for some reason Chris gets lost in the shuffle. Its strange that a guy who has hit .438 AVG / 1.102 OPS vs LHPs this season is a bit of a secret, but that seems to be the case with Johnson. Francisco Liriano can be dominant at times but the price is cheap enough to give Chris a look.
Other 3Bs to consider – Adrian Beltre, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Seager, David Wright
SHORTSTOP
Jose Reyes – Full disclosure: I don’t like my chances of rostering Jose this evening. It’s not that I hate him, but he’s a bit pricey and I don’t really want to pick on Mike Fiers much. That said, if you have the salary I don’t expect him to be highly owned and Jose will both be in a positive hitting environment and get to face a preferred LHP. I think he makes for an intriguing tournament play tonight.
J.J. Hardy – It seems like forever ago that RotoGrinders ran a t-shirt contest for whoever could predict JJ’s first dong. In fact, he has banged out three bombs in his last six games, and he racked up two hits in all but one of those games. Needles to say, he’s been hot of late. Hardy is a much more imposing hitter when facing a lefty, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll be in hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field.
Other shortstops to consider – Derek Jeter, Danny Santana, Erick Aybar
OUTFIELDERS
Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout – Kole has taken a huge leap this year and has turned himself into a really solid hitter these days. Tonight he’ll hit leadoff vs Allen Webster in Fenway Park, which is a plus matchup. The Angels are a – 130 favorite in a game with a 9 over/under so Vegas clearly does not expect Webster to put up anything close to a clean sheet. As for Trout, in you case you don’t know, he’s pretty good at this baseball thing. I don’t care that he’s in a little slump, as he has a massive upside tonight.
Khris Davis – One more Brewer for the road. Khris has dramatically favorable splits when he gets to square off vs a lefty and as previously established, J.A. Haap isn’t exactly a pitcher I’m going out of my way to avoid tonight. You can roll out the entire MLW OF in a tournament as both Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez thrive vs southpaws, but when you factor in price, Davis is probably your best value.
Other OFs to consider – Carlos Gomez, Michael Brantley, Hunter Pence, Yasiel Puig, Josh Willingham, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Steve Pearce, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon