MLB DFS - Million Dollar Musings - Friday, September 11th
September 11 is an emotional day for a lot of us, so I’m not going to give you any goofiness to open with today.
We’ve got a later than usual start time tonight for the main slate at 8:05pm ET. This means we’ll push Crunchtime back to 7:30pm ET tonight. There might be weather concerns in Minnesota, which would affect two of the top five pitchers on the slate. However, the early report from Kevin Roth looks promising, so for now, this game is a go.
Friday Night Pitching
ENOUGH ACES TO FILL AN OFFENSIVE LINE
Shane Bieber at Twins – 42.9% K, 6.4% BB, 1.25 ERA, 2.29 SIERA
Lucas Giolito vs Tigers – 34.9% K, 8.4% BB, 3.29 ERA, 3.22 SIERA
Kenta Maeda vs Indians – 30.9% K, 4.4% BB, 2.77 ERA, 3.08 SIERA
Luis Castillo at Cardinals – 31.1% K, 8.8% BB, 3.95 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Brandon Woodruff vs Cubs – 28.8% K, 7.9% BB, 3.91 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
Shane Bieber continues to be on a different level, having struck out at least eight batters in all nine of his starts with six double digit strikeout games to go along with his low walks. The only reason to consider fading Bieber tonight (besides the potential weather) is that next best pitcher on this slate, Lucas Giolito, has a better matchup. Giolito started the season slowly, but over the last four starts he has been at a Bieber-esque 43:3 K:BB ratio. We’ve seen this strikeout upside from him before, and while four starts doesn’t mean his control is no longer an issue, we saw improvements there in the second half of 2019 as well.
Both Bieber and Giolito have endless upside and enough strikeout ability to give them a high floor, even in bad games. The Tigers are the highest strikeout team in the league against righties, although the Twins have plenty of strikeouts in their lineup as well. The bigger difference in these matchups is the patience and the power. The Tigers active roster has the lowest walk rate in the league against righties at 6.6%, while the Twins are at 9.3%. The Tigers have a .176 ISO overall and .168 from tonight’s projected lineup while the Twins are at a .201 ISO and .217 from the projected lineup.