Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, July 28th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, everyone! We have a healthy Sunday slate today, with 10 games available on the main slate this afternoon on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It also appears that we might have a few potential weather issues today, though nothing seems like it is in imminent danger of being postponed. However, it is a day where I would advise keeping an eye on our MLB weather page for updates leading up to lock from chief meteorologist Kevin Roth.
This looks to be a slate that is skewed much more toward offense than pitching. There’s a lot to break down today, so let’s get right down to it and see what this Sunday slate has to offer!
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Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER ARMS
Garrett Crochet vs. Mariners
Cole Ragans vs. Cubs
Bryce Miller vs. White Sox
I have a few thoughts on today’s pitching right off the bat before we get into the numbers.
A) This is a really poor slate for arms, especially for a ten game docket.
B) When you see the numbers, Garrett Crochet is going to pop as the “obvious” SP1 choice because he’s so good and because he’s facing the high-strikeout Mariners. However, we need to look at the circumstances surrounding his usage. The trade deadline is coming in two days, the White Sox could very easily get a big haul for Crochet, and he has been limited to 28 and 74 pitches in his last two starts. The White Sox have ZERO incentive to let him throw anything resembling a full workload right now.
Now, let’s look at the 2024 data:
Crochet – 3.07 ERA, 2.37 xFIP, 35% K, 6% BB
Ragans – 3.23 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 29% K, 8% BB
Miller – 3.41 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 23% K, 6% BB
Once again, Garrett Crochet has the best numbers. You could make a case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. If you think the White Sox are going to give him anything resembling a full workload, then use him. I do not think there is any chance of that happening, and I have very little interest here.
I am more than happy to pivot to Cole Ragans as my SP1. Ragans has strong numbers across the board that include a 3.23 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, and a 29% strikeout rate this season. He should thrive against a Cubs team that ranks 23rd in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against LHP in 2024. The Cubs have also been struggling to hit consistently as a team, as they rank 25th in wOBA over the last month. I really like the ceiling for Ragans in this spot. He will be my preferred spend.
Bryce Miller is only listed in this tier because he is facing the White Sox. This is a great matchup for run prevention, but Miller doesn’t have anything near the strikeout upside of Ragans. I will keep Miller in my pool because of the matchup and the fact that pitching is so weak today, but I’m not all that excited about using him.
Ragans is the clear choice in this tier unless you believe that the White Sox are going to let Crochet throw 90+ pitches (I do not).
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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