MLB DFS Expert Survey: Monday, September 18

Our panel of experts is here to give you their MLB DFS picks for today’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know CheeseIsGood’s favorite sneaky stack? Or STLCards’ top overall pitcher? Find out below!

MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Monday, September 18

Who is your favorite hitter to spend up for in cash games?

stevietpfl: Bryce Harper
headChopper: Fernando Tatis
AlexSonty: Julio Rodriguez
TheLuuch: Fernando Tatis
eys819: Fernando Tatis

Who is your favorite hitter to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

stevietpfl: Kyle Schwarber
headChopper: Corey Seager
AlexSonty: Corey Seager
TheLuuch: Chas McCormick
eys819: Kyle Schwarber

Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?

stevietpfl: Bryan Woo
headChopper: Bryan Woo
AlexSonty: Justin Verlander
TheLuuch: Lance Lynn
eys819: Bryan Woo

Who is your favorite pitcher for large-field tournaments?

stevietpfl: Michael Wacha
headChopper: Zack Wheeler
AlexSonty: Jordan Montgomery (FD) / Bryan Woo (DK)
TheLuuch: Freddy Peralta
eys819: Michael Wacha

Who is your favorite salary saver for cash games?

stevietpfl: Sal Frelick (FD) / Ceddanne Rafaela (DK)
headChopper: Sal Frelick (FD) / Bryan Woo (DK)
AlexSonty: Teoscar Hernandez (FD) / Bryan Woo (DK)
TheLuuch: Teoscar Hernandez (FD) / Bryan Woo (DK)
eys819: Teoscar Hernandez (FD) / Bryan Woo (DK)

Who is your favorite salary saver for large-field tournaments?

stevietpfl: Mark Canha
headChopper: Jose Abreu
AlexSonty: Eloy Jimenez
TheLuuch: Eloy Jimenez
eys819: Gavin Sheets

Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

stevietpfl: Matt Olson
headChopper: Luis Robert
AlexSonty: Lance Lynn
TheLuuch: Mookie Betts
eys819: Lance Lynn

What’s your under-the-radar home run call of the day?

stevietpfl: Nathaniel Lowe
headChopper: Chas McCormick
AlexSonty: Parker Meadows
TheLuuch: Chas McCormick
eys819: Bryson Stott

Who is your favorite overall stack?

stevietpfl: MIL
headChopper: SD
AlexSonty: SEA
TheLuuch: MIL
eys819: MIL

Which chalky stack will you be underweight on compared to the field?

stevietpfl: CHW
headChopper: LAD
AlexSonty: SD
TheLuuch: SD
eys819: CWS

How do you plan to beat the field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?

stevietpfl: I’m going to spend down at pitcher and be overweight on expensive hitters. We have some great mid-tier options at pitcher. Also, we have 3-4 expensive stacks in great spots. I think it’s a slate to prioritize hitters.

headChopper: In GPPs, I am not becoming attached to any particular pitcher. No one stands apart for me. On the hitting side, I like being overweight on San Diego stacks by a good margin.

AlexSonty: In my single-entry lineups, I’m fading the chalky Lance Lynn and his struggles with power prevention and stacking the Tigers in a great home run ballpark. From there, I’m not gonna feel the need to concern myself with ownership very much.

TheLuuch: I think these Houston bats can break the slate at very low projected ownership. It sems like a good time to be overweight on them. We’re only two years removed from John Means handing out 27 home runs to righties in a single season.

eys819: I will be avoiding Lance Lynn chalk. His recent form is enough for me to feel comfortable with a fade despite the elite matchup. Bryan Woo and Michael Wacha have elite matchups of their own, and I will be overweight there. The Brewers and Padres are the top two offenses for me, but I also really like Phillies’ lefties, the Mariners, and the Astros. By fading Lynn, I can play a little chalkier with the bats.

Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

stevietpfl: Bryan Woo – The projected starting lineup for Oakland has a .170 ISO with a .301 wOBA and a 24.3% strikeout rate against RHP this season. This is a great matchup for Woo, and because of his up and down games, he has a fair price tag. He just faced this team a couple of weeks ago and with great success. Considering matchup and price, Woo is my favorite point-per-dollar pitcher.

headChopper: Bryan Woo – Process of elimination. The National League is starting to catch on to Lance Lynn; just sit on one of his fastball variations until you get the one you want. Justin Verlander is currently a shell of what he was in his previous tenure in Houston. Freddy Peralta has a tough matchup at St. Louis. Zack Wheeler has the toughest matchup in MLB. Woo is cheap, should check in, potentially, with decent ownership and has upside. Two 25+ DK performances in his last three starts and now gets Oakland.

AlexSonty: Justin Verlander – Verlander and Jordan Montgomery are my favorite pitchers, despite not coming in with many baked-in strikeouts because their matchups are dripping with strikeout potential. What tips the scales toward Verlander for me is his ultra-long leash. He doesn’t need a strikeout per inning. He just needs to go 7 innings, which he’s done in 8 of 24 starts this season, including his last two. And he’s gone 6 innings or more in 15 starts. The O’s are a good team, and Verlander isn’t overpowering, but Zack Wheeler has to face the Braves, Freddy Peralta has a terrible strikeout matchup against the Cardinals, and Lance Lynn is gonna be way too high-owned for the amount of power he surrenders.

TheLuuch: Freddy Peralta – Peralta has been unreal across the last six weeks or so. He’s been dominating against some talented offenses, such as San Diego, Philadelphia, and Texas. Peralta has struck out an elite 31% of hitters this season and a whopping 40% across the last 30 days. Our pOWN% currently has him as just the 7th-highest owned pitcher on FanDuel and the 8th-highest on DraftKings. Sign me up.

eys819: Michael Wacha – I love the spot for Bryan Woo as well, but I fear the A’s can get left-handed enough to limit his upside. Give me Wacha in a matchup with the Rockies away from Coors Field. Colorado owns a 27.3% strikeout rate away from Coors this season, which should raise Wacha’s ceiling. Only two batters in their projected lineup have struck out less than 23.5% vs. RHP this season, and four of them have struck out above 30%. Wacha has dealt with some tough matchups recently and given a solid performance in each of them, with the exception of last time out against the Dodgers.

Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

stevietpfl: Kyle Schwarber – We are at that point of the season where every game counts. The Phillies are in a great spot against Kyle Wright, and every game matters for this team right now. Wright has struggled with lefties and comes into this matchup with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. He also has allowed a .312 ISO with a .459 wOBA to lefties this season. Schwarber has crushed RHP this season. This is a great, high-upside spot.

headChopper: Corey Seager- Projected ownership is well below the other elite hitters tonight. Good matchup against a right hander. He has basically been a top-3 MVP candidate in the American League this season.

AlexSonty: Corey Seager – The Mariners against JP Sears is a great spot for Julio Rodriguez, but Oakland sucks for power, while Arlington is great for power. Kutter Crawford isn’t a bum, but he has given up a 9.3% barrel rate on a 35.1% FB rate and 44.4% hard hit rate to lefties. Meanwhile, Seager’s been an MVP canididate, with his .357 ISO, 17.9% barrel rate, 29.4% FB and LD rates, and 65.1% hard hit rate against RHP. Globe Life Field is the 4th-best ballpark for home runs, according to THE BAT.

TheLuuch: Julio Rodriguez – Give me the guy who is having a monster second half of the season. In fact, he has collected 3 homers and 6 RBIs in the last nine days. We know opposing pitcher JP Sears gives up plenty of power and barrels to righties (12%). Rodriguez owns a 67% hard contact rate vs. LHP this season. He’s projected to bat second on the road, so I like his odds of getting five ABs.

eys819: Kyle Schwarber – He owns an elite .298 ISO vs. RHP this season and gets a matchup against Kyle Wright. Wright has struggled against lefties throughout his career, and they have been especially tough on him this season. He has faced just 43 lefties this season as he has dealt with injuries, but nearly half of them have reached base. He has allowed a .312 ISO and struck out just 18.6% of them.

Who is your favorite sneaky stack on the board and why?

stevietpfl: Phillies – Like I mentioned above, Kyle Wright has struggled with lefties, and every game counts for the Phillies right now. Using the top MLB stacks and stack values tool, we currently have the Phillies pOWN% at 5.4%. I like the idea of pairing them with the chalky Brewers and Padres stacks.

headChopper: Phillies – Maybe they fly under the radar because their team total isn’t high. The Braves win with offense, not pitching. Kyle Wright hasn’t been a good pitcher, and this bullpen can be taxed.

AlexSonty: Tigers – You had to know I was coming here. Forget the name of the pitcher they face. They get a pitcher who’s given up the most HR/9 on the slate (2.21) on an 11.6% barrel rate to lefties and a 9.3% rate to righties in the 2nd-best home run park in baseball, according to THE BAT. The Tigers are bad, but they aren’t a bunch of total nothings. Spencer Torkelson has a 14.2% barrel rate with 30.5% FB and LD rates and a 66.9% hard hit rate against RHP. Jake Rogers, a 10.9% barrel rate. Kerry Carpenter, a 10.1% rate. And Parker Meadows is a toolsy guy with a power-speed combo from the left side. No one’s gonna play this because 30-35% of the field is playing Lance Lynn.

TheLuuch: Astros- The Astros are checking in at very appealing low projected ownership. John Means gave up 27 homers to righties in 2021, and this Houston lineup is littered with them. Houston’s best two hitters happen to be lefties, but they are essentially matchup-proof at this point. According to our stacks tool, the Astros rank 8th in both optimal chances and ownership.

eys819: Astros – They have been on absolute tear, as they are the healthiest they have been all season. Over the past 30 days, the Astros own the top wOBA (.376) and wRC+ (143) in the league, and they have struck out at the lowest rate (16.4%). They get a matchup with John Means, who has made just one big league start this season as he works his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. I definitely want some exposure to the top offense in baseball over the last month in a matchup with a pitcher who likely is not yet 100%.

What is your hot take of the day?

stevietpfl: Sal Frelick has a career night.

headChopper: Astros bottom of the order (Chas/Abreu/Pena in whatever order) goes back-to-back home runs at some point tonight.

AlexSonty: Spencer Torkelson hits 2 homers in his first three plate appearances.

TheLuuch: Chas McCormick drives in 4 runs.

eys819: Michael Wacha strikes out 8 Rockies in 7 shutout innings.

Image Credit: Getty Images