Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Friday 7/4

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-04 16:12:43 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Friday, and Happy Birthday to America! We’ve got a pretty busy day of baseball with a 5-game early slate at 1:05 PM ET and then an 8-game main slate on DK, of course at the Canadian start time of 7:07 PM ET. The 9-game main slate on FD starts a little earlier at 6:40 PM ET.

We look to be free from MLB weather concerns, so unless any firework-related concerns throw us off track, we should be good to go. I’ll be smoking some ribs and wings as I’m working my way through the day, so feel free to come on over after Crunch Time!

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Friday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

This slate has three spend-up pitchers and then a huge drop to a group of tremendously low-upside pitchers that I will hope to avoid.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Bryan Woo vs. Pirates – 24% K, 4.3% BB, 2.93 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
• Andrew Abbott at Phillies – 23.8% K, 6.9% BB, 1.79 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
• Jesus Luzardo vs. Reds – 27.2% K, 7.8% BB, 4.06 ERA, 3.43 SIERA

Thursday’s loss is Friday’s gain, as we get Bryan Woo on the mound at home in an even better matchup than he was going to have last night. Both Jesus Luzardo and Andrew Abbott have as much, if not more, best-case-scenario upside than Woo, but this is such a better matchup for a more consistent pitcher that it’s basically a Don’t Overthink It for me. He has elite control, occasional strikeout upside, and a matchup in a great ballpark against a team that ranks dead last in the league in ISO against RHP. I’ll just play Woo and then consider whether or not I want to pair him with one of these other high-end pitchers on DK.

Andrew Abbott has had more real-life success this season, but the ERA certainly looks fluky. He’s a completely fine pitcher but really hasn’t shown any consistent strikeout upside and has needed every bit of the lucky .241 BABAIP and 8.1% HR/FB% to survive. The matchup is somewhat neutral, so I don’t hate him, but he’s extremely far below Woo for me today.

Jesus Luzardo has seen a lot more ups and downs, but he seems to have recovered from his couple of nightmare starts, and he has more per-inning upside than anyone on this slate. Add in that he’s regularly getting 100+ pitches, and he is also far ahead of Abbott on my board. I prefer Woo, but ideally, I would be able to play these two together on DK. On FD, I still prefer Woo, but Luzardo is enough cheaper that he is firmly in the primary pool as well, and I’ll be mixing and matching them.

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