Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Saturday 7/5

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-05 16:42:00 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Saturday! I hope you enjoyed your 4th of July. The ribs and wings here were magical, more than making up for the nonsensical baseball slate. The Astros managed to score more runs in a single game at Dodger Stadium than they did in an entire series in Coors Field, and the Royals (the 29th-in-the-league-in-scoring Royals) popped off for 9 runs in 4 innings against my SP2. Good times indeed! In the past couple of nights, we’ve seen teeny tiny little old men coming to life with Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve tapping the ball over the fence. While not an old man, the only player I can find today to match their stature is Nick Allen, so maybe it’s his turn. Who knows what could happen?

We’ve got another busy day of baseball with games spread out all over the place and some more interesting MLB weather for bats at Wrigley Field. We’ve also got multiple slates starting at multiple times.

We’ve got some difference between the sites with the early slates. DK is starting earlier at 2:10pm ET and including an additional 3 games, making it a 9-game slate. FD is waiting until 4:05pm ET, which makes a 6-game slate. All 6 of those games on the FD slate are a part of the DK slate, so for this article, I’ll focus on the DK side while noting any differences in FD pricing that might change your approach.

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Saturday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

There are three pitchers priced up above $9,000 on DK today, and then we have quite a few viable options in the middle tier. I’ll sort things into three buckets, but am landing on a pretty condensed pool overall.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Ranger Suarez vs. Reds – 23.8% K, 6% BB, 2.00 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
• Carlos Rodon at Mets – 28.9% K, 8.7% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
• Chad Patrick at Marlins – 24.4% K, 7.6% BB, 3.51 ERA, 3.87 SIERA

Carlos Rodon always has upside, but it hasn’t shown up much recently, and the matchup today is not going to help him get there. I’m willing to play Rodon any time, and particularly when he’s not popular, which he shouldn’t be, but officially, there’s no way I can rank him ahead of Ranger Suarez.

Ranger Suarez has been awesome, with 10 straight quality starts, and he has gone 7 innings in his last 5, while allowing a combined 9 runs in those 10 quality starts. The per-inning strikeout upside is not quite as high as Rodon’s, but he adds to that upside better control and efficiency, which leads to the innings. He’s also piling up ground balls, which limits his power risk. On top of that, he has a very good matchup for strikeouts, which comes with just moderate power risk. He looks like the very clear SP1, especially on DK, where he’s cheaper than Rodon. My initial plan is to be close to all-in on Suarez on DK. He’s priced up a bit more on FD, but I still prefer him to Rodon.

Chad Patrick gets a third straight great matchup, and the last two have not disappointed, with 17 strikeouts against the Rockies and Pirates. The Marlins are not as bad as those offenses, but I would still call it a plus matchup overall in Miami. His main issue has been failing to pitch deep into games, which is more due to his inefficiency than anything with pitch count. I cannot expect a big game for strikeouts with this current Marlins lineup, so it’s more about hoping his fly balls stay in the park and he can get some easy innings that way. I think he should be fine, and he’s one of those guys I’m completely happy playing if the salary fits. On DK, that makes it kind of tough where he’s $9,200 and not close enough to Suarez to make him playable as the SP1. If I have all the salary I need, I would use him as the SP2, but that’s not going to be possible in a lot of lineups. This makes him look better on FD at just $8,800, where he is my favorite pitcher if I can’t afford Suarez.

MID-TIER MAYBES

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