Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Saturday 5/9

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2026-05-09 15:46:00 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks today. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the May 9, 2026 MLB DFS slate.

Happy Saturday! I’m filling in for Cards today, but he’ll be back with you as normal tomorrow. We’ve got a split slate Saturday, with the main slate being an 8-gamer at the usual 7:05pm ET start time. But we’ll start with a quick peek at the early 5-gamer, which kicks off 3:07pm ET. 3:07! There are some weather concerns on the early slate, most notably in the Rays/Red Sox game. I’m including that game in the article, but you’ll need to check back in closer to lock before including those players in your lineups.

Saturday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel

We have a few young arms with strikeout upside on this slate, and then things dry up pretty quickly.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Chase Burns vs. Astros – 32.4% K, 8.3% BB, 3.42 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
• Trey Yesavage vs. Angels – 24.5% K, 9.8% BB, 2.31 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
• Payton Tolle vs. Rays – 29.8% K, 9.9% BB, 3.97 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
• Spencer Arrighetti at Reds – 21.8% K, 13.2% BB, 4.01 ERA, 4.89 SIERA

Chase Burns and Payton Tolle have both shown big strikeout upside in their young careers and have clear upside every time they take the mound. It’s been a little surprising to see Tolle ahead of Burns this season with his massive 34.3% K rate through 3 starts. However, that’s still only 3 starts for Tolle this season and just 34 innings for his career (including last year), while Burns is up to 7 starts this season and 84 career innings. Burns also has a considerably higher swinging-strike rate and has always been considered the better prospect. None of this is to say that Tolle isn’t great with just as much upside, but I certainly have more trust in Burns at this point. For me, and likely for everyone, Chase Burns is the clear SP1 on this slate. He’s not without risk pitching at home, but the Astros’ projected lineup has 4 high-strikeout bats and some very weak bats at the bottom of the lineup to help him along. With 7+ strikeouts in 5 of his 7 starts and more upside from there, I won’t overthink this one where salary allows.

If the Red Sox don’t get rained out, Payton Tolle will be in the mix, but the weather, the lower-strikeout Rays, and his lack of track record keep him behind Burns.

Trey Yesavage worked up to 82 pitches in his 2nd start, so he should be close to the point where we can consider him a full go. He struggled with his efficiency in that 2nd start, making it just 4 innings, though that came with 6 strikeouts to go along with his 3 walks. Adding in what he did last season and the impressive postseason numbers, I’m expecting to see something like a 25% K rate with upside from there. With the high-strikeout matchup against the Angels, there is a lot more risk than what Tolle faces, but there is a clearer path to a ceiling as well. It’s close, and both have a lot of unknowns, but I prefer Yesavage ahead of Tolle as the SP2.

Spencer Arrighetti has also shown plenty of upside, but he comes with much bigger question marks due to his wonky control. He has 4+ walks in 3 of his 4 starts this season after his 12.8% walk rate in 2025. He is also a fly-ball pitcher, which adds more risk against a Reds team with good power in their homer-friendly ballpark. He’s my least favorite of this group.

CHEAPER OPTIONS

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