Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, June 29
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Split Slate Thursday! After a crazy Wednesday night slate with massive scores all across the board, we slow down a bit with just a 5-game main slate starting at 7:07pm ET. I’ll start with a quick peek at the early 5-game DK slate that starts at 2:05pm. FD has split up the early games into two smaller three game slates, and if you want my thoughts on those, tune into an early Crunch Time starting at noon.
No time to tarry with the early start, so let’s jump right in and look at some MLB DFS picks for this Split Slate Thurday.
Thursday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have an ace-less slate with several teams not having announced their starters yet, but likely to go with something like bullpen games. We have these four pitchers making up something like a top tier, followed by some kids at a discount that you are welcome to throw darts at.
NOT ACES, BUT THE BEST OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
Shane Bieber at Royals – 18.5% K, 6.5% BB, 3.69 ERA, 4.42 SIERA
Lance Lynn at Angels – 27% K, 8.4% BB, 6.40 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Clarke Schmidt at A’s – 22.5% K, 6.8% BB, 4.32 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Patrick Sandoval vs. White Sox – 16.9% K, 8.9% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.84 SIERA
The safest, most consistent long-term skill set on this slate belongs to Shane Bieber. If you want to be optimistic, you will notice that the strikeouts have perked up a bit recently, but any way you slice it, an 18.5% K rate is not great. 11 of his 16 starts this season have come with four or fewer strikeouts and even the innings have been a bit all over the place. There is no question that he has the leash and ability to pitch a 7-8 inning start, but he’ll need BABIP on his side. I have basically a 4-way tie at the top today, and with Bieber being the only one priced above $9k, he’s basically just a leftover.
Lance Lynn is the strikeout leader on this slate, but also the one with the most power risk of this top four. He has power risk both from his skill set and the matchup, but the splits here are in his favor. He is mostly power prone to lefties, and outside of Ohtani, the Angels best hitters are righties. While the upside games are sporadic, we’ve seen more big strikeout outings from Lynn than anyone else this season. For me, that’s enough for him to check in as the SP1.
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