Million Dollar Musings: Thursday, September 21
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! We’ve got ourselves a nice looking 7-game slate tonight. I find pretty clear groupings of MLB DFS picks on both the pitching and hitting sides. There are some obvious plays on both sides that should be moderately chalky, but enough reasonable pivots to be able to get different without being goofy.
Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I see three very clear groupings, giving me nine pitchers to consider on this slate. This is what those triple trios look like:
TRIO OF ACES
Gerrit Cole vs. Blue Jays
Tarik Skubal at A’s
Max Fried at Nationals
TRIO OF GOOD
Grayson Rodriguez at Guardians
Jose Berrios at Yankees
Ranger Suarez vs. Mets
TRIO OF SAVINGS
Kyle Hendricks vs. Pirates
Luis Medina vs. Tigers
David Peterson at Phillies
Who Needs To Max Out Cole When You Can Just Skubal
Gerrit Cole vs. Blue Jays – 27.2% K, 6.3% BB, 2.81 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
Tarik Skubal at A’s – 30.7% K,4.7% BB, 3.25 ERA, 2.98 SIERA
Max Fried at Nationals – 25.3% K, 5.9% BB, 2.64 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher, and he’s been a great pitcher for a long time. He should be great tonight. Feel free to play him, he’s great. But at this moment in time, Tarik Skubal is better. Skubal has 7+ strikeouts in six straight starts, a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Cole on the season.
This is not even about the matchup or the salary, this is just about Skubal being better. Add in the better matchup and the lower salary, and we have an easy call for SP1. It’s Skubal.
On DK, there may be some builds where you can jam in double aces with the expensive Cole, and by all means, go for it. He’s consistent and he has upside in any matchup. But let’s look at what else we have before worrying about spending this much salary.
Max Fried is as steady and consistent as anyone in the league and he gets a favorable matchup for run prevention, though not a favorable matchup for strikeouts. We also have a little added concern after missing a few days with a blister on his throwing hand. This doesn’t seem likely to be any real issue here, but there’s always the chance of a blister coming back, and they are certainly not going to mess with pushing him if any issues arise. If we just assume he’s a full go, I like him very close to the same as Cole, which means I like him better once salary is factored in. This is where I start today – Skubal SP1, Fried SP2, Cole SP3.
THREE MORE GOOD PITCHERS
Grayson Rodriguez at Guardians – 24.8% K, 8.3% BB, 4.53 ERA, 4.05 SIERA
Jose Berrios at Yankees – 22.9% K, 6.7% BB, 3.49 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Ranger Suarez vs. Mets – 22.4% K, 9% BB, 3.80 ERA, 4.36 SIERA
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