Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, April 5
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Good morning and Happy Wednesday! We’ve got an early start today with a pitching heavy 9-game slate starting at 1:05pm ET. We’re looking at a boatload of aces, as well as one of the league’s best pitching prospects at minimum salary on DK.
I’m going to go ahead jump right in so I can get this posted early enough for you to find those MLB DFS picks and get those lineups set before we head out to lunch. Let me know where you’re eating, and I’ll meet you there!
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We are back to a slate loaded with ace pitchers, all of whom are making their second starts of the season. Several of these aces had rough first starts, which makes for an interesting dynamic here. Generally speaking, top pitchers with long track records get a pass from me on a bad start or two to open the season, and that’s no different here. The one thing I want to keep an eye on is if we see clearly diminished velocity or a change in pitch type that could explain it. But usually, one bad start to open the season is just random noise, and can make for a buying opportunity if the salary or ownership goes down because of it. This is what the ace tier looks like today:
Aces And Upside
Gerrit Cole vs Phillies – 32.4% K, 6.3% BB, 3.50 ERA, 2.77 SIERA
Jacob deGrom vs Orioles – 42.7% K, 3.3% BB, 3.08 ERA, 1.59 SIERA
Corbin Burnes vs Mets – 30.5% K, 6.4% BB, 2.94 ERA, 2.91 SIERA
Aaron Nola at Yankees – 29.1% K, 3.6% BB, 3.25 ERA, 2.80 SIERA
Shane McClanahan at Nationals – 30.3% K, 5.9% BB, 2.54 ERA, 2.82 SIERA
Cristian Javier vs Tigers – 33.2% K, 8.9% BB, 2.54 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
Dylan Cease vs Giants – 30.4% K, 10.4% BB, 2.20 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
Before looking at matchups or salary, let’s just take note of who looked good and who looked bad in their first starts this season.
Gerrit Cole was the elite ace with 11 strikeouts in six scoreless innings. Dylan Cease also looked elite with his usual big strikeout stuff, and a surprising zero walks. Cease will go as far as the control allows.
Aaron Nola and Corbin Burnes were the shakiest by my count, based not just on the results, but low swinging strikes and high walk rates. Burnes was particularly troubling with a 3:3 K:B ratio in five innings.
