Million Dollar Musings: Wednesday, September 27
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We’ve got an 8-game slate on tap for tonight, which is again headlined by the Dodgers visiting Coors Field. Be sure to note that while the Marlins-Mets game was originally included in the DK slate, that game is not going to count for DFS.
This ends up as a slate where it is very easy to find the top MLB DFS picks in a no salary cap build, but gets a lot trickier when deciding whether to prioritize the ace pitching or the high-end offenses. Let’s dive in and see what we can figure out.
Wednesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
The pitching is strong up top with a trio of aces, but drops off in a hurry after that.
THREE ACES
Gerrit Cole at Blue Jays – 27.4% K, 6.1% BB, 2.75 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Pablo Lopez vs. A’s – 29.2% K, 6% BB, 3.61 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Framber Valdez at Mariners – 24.6% K, 6.6% BB, 3.39 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
There could be disagreement over which of these three pitchers is the best real-life pitcher vs. the best DFS pitcher, and I really wouldn’t have any issue with any way you wanted to rank these three in those discussions. My hunch is that with matchup and salary factored in, Pablo Lopez is going to come out as the SP1 in terms of DFS ownership. I totally get it, Lopez is great, he has strikeout upside and he’s facing the A’s. You only have to go back as far as last night to see what a Twins pitcher can do with his 5 innings against Oakland. I am not in any way down on Lopez, and I will gladly play him in any lineup. However, while it’s just guesswork, I see such a drastically lower innings ceiling from Lopez compared to Gerrit Cole, that I’m on the Cole side of spend ups.
This is the odd case of final week shenanigans where it actually helps Cole that his team is eliminated, and it hurts Lopez that his team is in the playoffs. The Twins already goof around with innings as much as any team in the AL, and while I can’t say for sure that he couldn’t get 6 innings if all goes perfectly, I know he’s not getting 8-9, which is very in play for Cole. On top of that, as great as Lopez is, Cole has looked more like the old Cole in the 2nd half, with a 29.7% K rate and just 4.4% walks, which are better numbers than we’ve seen from Lopez.
I love both Cole and Lopez, and if possible, I’d just pair them together, but my first choice is the guy who I see as the better pitcher with the considerably higher pitch count ceiling. That is Gerrit Cole.
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