MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, April 14
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, April 14th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re ending the week with a massive 12-game slate, and overall this might be one of the worst groups of SP’s I can remember for such a large amount of games. Sure, there’s Kodai Senga against Oakland, who is a clear top play, and Drew Rasmussen, who has been excellent in two starts but is now priced up with a tough matchup in Toronto. Marco Gonzales was scratched from his start as he goes on the paternity list, and Tommy Milone will now start for Seattle.
I’ll get to more pitching notes later, but this really feels like a slate where a low-owned, average-priced SP is going to be the top p/$ play of the slate. A few offenses are going to go nuclear with 10+ runs as there are just so many spots where explosive teams are facing weak pitching in good hitting weather.
Plenty of other news to get to along with some MLB DFS picks, so let’s start previewing the slate!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CLE/WSH is the only game with even a chance of light rain, but it shouldn’t impact much as far as pitchers and hitters. It will be one of the warmer games of the slate with temps in the high 70s and 5-10mph wind blowing out, so bump to the hitters here.
- Other games with great hitting conditions are MIN/NYY, BAL/CWS, ATL/KCR, and PIT/STL, as all will see temps in the 70s. The best wind will be in KC at 14mph blowing out to left, while STL will see 8mph wind also out to left.
- LAA/BOS, MIL/SDP, NYM/OAK, and CHC/LAD will be in the 50s, so slight bumps to the pitchers in those games. TB/TOR, TEX/HOU, and COL/SEA are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Twins called up Kyle Garlick for Farmer who is going on the IL, and against the lefty Cortes he’ll start today. Edouard Julien will start again even in the L/L matchup after hitting a homer yesterday. DJ LeMahieu remains out with quad tightness, and Volpe will hit leadoff for the Yankees.
- Matt Chapman was a late scratch yesterday with an illness, but is back in the lineup today for TOR, while Masataka Yoshida, who is dealing with a hamstring injury remains out for Boston.
- Eloy Jimenez will return from the IL today, and Yoan Moncada will take his place on the IL. Burger and Alberto will get most of the 3B starts and Eloy will take starts from either Vaughn or Sheets.
- Orlando Arcia has a small fracture in his wrist, so he’ll be out indefinitely, and Vaughn Grissom will be called up to get most of the playing time at SS for Atlanta.
- Jesse Winker has missed the last four games with an illness, but he was back around the team yesterday, so it seems like he has a shot at returning to the lineup tonight. Luis Campusano is confirmed starting at catcher for SD tonight.
- Dansby Swanson will be back for the Cubs after sitting last game, and Seiya Suzuki has a chance to make his 2023 debut as he should be back either today or tomorrow.
- The Guardians are my top stack today, as they are hitting in the best weather of the slate against a very mediocre Trevor Williams and currently have the highest projected team total of the slate. STL, NYY, LAA, and HOU are my next favorite stacks, and there are too many other strong GPP stacks to mention but I’ll include SEA, ATL, and BAL as a few favorites.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Kodai Senga ($10,800) is the SP I’m going with for cash games, as his matchup with OAK is one of the best for any SP today. The weather in OAK is also better for pitchers than a lot of stadiums today, and he should have a solid 6 strikeout floor and 10+ strikeout ceiling, which is hard to say for many other pitchers going today. Rasmussen ($11,200) has been great in matchups with WSH and OAK this year, but draws a much tougher matchup with TOR today, and I don’t want to pay his inflated salary for someone unlikely to get over 85 pitches.
- If you want an option in the $9k range, I’d go with Michael Wacha ($9,600), as he has a top 5 projected ceiling today at home against MIL. Wacha is coming off a masterful performance against ATL where he went 6IP/0ER/10Ks, and although I wouldn’t expect that again, he has a good shot at 35-45 FP. Luis Garcia ($8,900) is projected to be pretty popular, but he’s just a GPP option for me today.
- The Guardians are where I’m starting my cash game build, and the trio of Jose Ramirez ($3,600), Andres Gimenez ($3,500), and Steven Kwan ($3,200) are a fantastic starting stack. They each offer HR and SB upside, are underpriced, especially Ramirez, and are hitting in excellent weather against an average pitcher. Amed Rosario ($2,500), Josh Naylor ($2,600), and Josh Bell ($2,200) all make for strong value plays to complete the full stack, with Rosario being my favorite play as he has some SB upside compared to the other two. Check out our Boom Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like taking the over .5 runs for Ramirez today.
- Sandoval is an SP worth targeting bats against, as he only has four total strikeouts in two starts this season. Hernandez ($2,700), Turner ($2,800), and Refsnyder ($2,300) are all solid value bats with the platoon advantage to either stack or pick and choose from depending on your positional needs today.
- Alex Bregman ($3,100) stands out as underpriced, as he’s gone for over 21 FP in three straight games, has the platoon advantage on Perez today, and only went up $300 in price from last game. Jose Abreu ($2,700) is also too cheap for someone with his upside, and this is probably one of the last chances to play him for under $3k.
- If there wasn’t already enough 3B value in Ramirez, Turner, and Bregman, Manny Machado ($3,000) is just at a ridiculously underpriced salary, especially since he went down $200 overnight after homering yesterday. He has the platoon advantage on Lauer and I will almost certainly find a way to get him and probably Jose Ramirez in my cash game lineup.
- There are so many more fantastic bats today that I could rave about, but I’ll narrow down my list of some top p/$ plays to Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($2,900), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900), Gunnar Henderson ($2,800), Carlos Correa ($2,700), and Rowdy Tellez ($2,700)
- Senga ($10,400) and Wacha ($8,100) are where I’m going in cash games at the moment, although Tommy Milone ($4,000) is extremely tempting as he has a good shot at 10-15 FP and will really let you go nuts on a bunch of top bats.
- I have to start with Cody Bellinger ($3,200) as my favorite cash game bat on DK today, and it being a “revenge game” for him in his return to Dodger Stadium is just a bonus. Bellinger has gone 5 for his last 12 with just two strikeouts, faces a pitcher in Syndergaard coming off a 6 ER pounding my Arizona, and is priced about $1k too cheap. He can always swipe a bag to add to his elite HR upside, could have more protection in the lineup and guys on base if Suzuki returns, and will likely not be this cheap again the rest of the season.
- The Guardians are much more expensive compared to FD, but I will still try to get 2-3 of them in my cash game lineup. The Red Sox righties remain cheap, and I like using one or a couple of Hernandez, Turner, or Refsnyder in cash games.
- I’m not sure why Rowdy Tellez ($3,000) dropped another $200 in price after hitting his second HR in his last three games, but I will keep going back to him at this low of a salary, especially since value at 1B that I like is hard to come by today.
- More top p/$ bats on my radar today include Chas McCormick ($3,900), Gunnar Henderson ($3,900), Yasmani Grandal ($3,300), Oscar Colas ($2,600), and Eddie Rosario ($2,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!