MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, April 21
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, April 21st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Monster 12 game slate to end the week, and we have a couple of games with legitimate PPD concerns due to rain and cold/snow. Fernando Tatis went 0 for 5 yesterday, and with that dominant performance, his salary increased from $2k to $5.1k on DK. At that price against Zac Gallen, he’s off my radar outside of GPPs today.
Lots to talk about with so many games on tap, so let’s get into the weather, lineup notes, and some MLB DFS picks for today!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- MIA/CLE is currently at an ORANGE rating, which usually means full fade for me in cash games. Storms may clear by the first pitch, but a heavier batch of rain will move in later, so it’s just a matter of how much game they can fit in if they even decide to start it. Neither pitcher was a target for me even in perfect weather, and with 10+ safer weather games on the slate, I won’t be on any bats here outside of GPPs, and only if I feel like they can play 7+ innings.
- WSH/MIN is our other weather concern game, as it’s going to be cold, windy, and snowy for most of the game. If they decide to play, Tyler Mahle would be on my GPP radar, along with a few MIN bats. Overall though, the freezing conditions and snowfall is going to make it miserable for everyone involved here if it plays.
- DET/BAL is our warmest game of the slate with temps in the high 70s, followed by HOU/ATL and KC/LAA both in the 70s as well. SFG, NYY, and PHI will be in the 60s, and today’s dome games are OAK/TEX, BOS/MIL, SDP/ARI, and STL/SEA.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jorge Mateo is day-to-day with hip discomfort, and if out again, look for Henderson to play SS and Vavra or O’Hearn to hit 9th.
- Amed Rosario will return to the lineup and hit in his usual second spot today.
- Jorge Polanco is off the IL for the Twins, and Edouard Julien will be sent back down to AAA.
- Laureano is on the IL for OAK, so Kemp should get more playing time in the OF with Diaz at 2B. Also, in that game Ezequiel Duran will hit seventh for TEX against the lefty Sears, while Grossman will move up to second in the order.
- Arroyo is likely still out for Boston, so Yu Chang should continue to start, especially after hitting an HR yesterday. MIL will be without Mitchell as he landed on the IL, so we could see newly promoted Blake Perkins draw his first career start.
- Ketel Marte and Pavin Smith got days off yesterday, but both should be back in there against Lugo today.
- We’ll see if Brendan Donovan is ready to return from his shin injury, and I’m curious if STL goes with Burleson or Nootbaar in the 2-hole.
- My top stacks today are LAA, PHI, and BAL, as all are at home with team totals currently over five, along with three of the best-hitting weather stadiums of the slate. My next three favorite stacks are TEX, MIL, and NYY.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Shohei Ohtani ($11,400) is the highest-upside SP of the slate at home against KC. The Royals have the lowest team average against righties (.207), the second lowest OPS (.586), and the third-lowest HRs (8). They are currently the only team today with a projected run total below three, and Ohtani just has too high of a ceiling in this matchup to not be my cash game SP today.
- If you absolutely need more salary for bats, then Aaron Nola ($9,300) would be the cash game SP to target, as he draws a fantastic matchup with Colorado. The Rockies are a different team on the road, with the third-lowest batting average (.216) and second-lowest OPS (.624), and Nola is too good of a pitcher to go five straight games of 2+ ER and 6 or fewer strikeouts which he’s done in every start this season.
- I’m going right back to Philly in cash games even after they disappointed yesterday, as their salaries are just too cheap. Kyle Schwarber ($3,100), Trea Turner ($3,600), and Bryson Stott ($2,900) are my top trio to stack, and if you want the full stack, I’d go with Castellanos ($3,200) or Realmuto ($2,900).
- The Rangers are in a great spot at home against the lefty Sears, as Sears has allowed 5 HR and 8 ER over his last three starts. Ezequiel Duran ($2,100) is a top value option with b2b games over 12 FP, while Marcus Semien ($3,700) is on a tear at the plate with eleven hits over his last six games. Adolis Garcia ($3,400), Robbie Grossman ($2,500), and Josh Jung ($3,000) all have the platoon advantage today, and each are great options if you want more TEX exposure.
- Kikuchi is coming off by far his best start of the year, but I still don’t mind a couple Yankees bats in cash games. Judge ($4,200) is always a top play and still pretty affordable. At the same time, Anthony Volpe ($2,800), Gleyber Torres ($3,200), and DJ LeMahieu ($3,200) come at excellent prices. It doesn’t hurt that Torres and LeMahieu are a combined 15 for 37 in their career against Kikuchi with just four total strikeouts.
- More value bats to consider today include Anthony Santander ($2,700), Adam Frazier ($2,800), Daulton Varsho ($3,000), Kerry Carpenter ($2,400), Jose Abreu ($2,500), Christian Yelich ($3,100), and Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900).
- Ohtani ($10,800) and Nola ($9,400) remain my top SPs and should be easy to fit in cash games, with Nola as the 5th most expensive SP of the slate. Joey Lucchesi ($5,400) is an extremely tempting cash game play as well, as he’s in a pitcher’s park against a mediocre lineup in SF, and in 15.2 AAA innings this season, he has a 2.30 ERA along with 15 strikeouts. I wouldn’t consider him over Ohtani, but if you need the $4k salary to improve bats, then I could see taking a shot on him over Nola.
- Bryson Stott ($3,900) is my favorite value bat from Philly and my top p/$ 2B of the slate, and I also really like the price of Adam Frazier ($2,900) at 2B if you need the $1k salary savings.
- At SS I’m still loving the price of Anthony Volpe ($3,700) and his ability to get on base, steal bases, and pop an occasional homer. Ezequiel Duran ($2,100) is also a fantastic SS play at basically minimum salary, and he also has OF eligibility, so you can play him along with Volpe in a lineup. RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code is a great bonus for new signups – today I like taking higher .5 singles for Volpe.
- Other strong p/$ bats I like include Robbie Grossman ($2,700), Kerry Carpenter ($3,000), Oswald Peraza ($2,600), Josh Jung ($3,900), Jesse Winker ($3,100), and Brice Turang ($2,100).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!