MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, April 28
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, April 28th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We currently have 10 games on today’s main slate, although we could get down to nine as PIT/WAS is already PPD and ATL/NYM could be too. Coors Field is back in play as the Rockies host the Diamondbacks, and at first glance, I’m seeing some excellent value bats there.
There’s no shortage of top SP options today, as we have a loaded pitching slate with deGrom as the headliner, along with Castillo, Manoah, Bieber, Nola, and Valdez. Let’s get to the slate news and some MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- PIT/WAS and ATL/NYM are both RED/ORANGE currently, so I am treating both of these games as if they won’t play. If anything changes closer to lock, I’ll update here, but the forecast has rain all night for both so it’s hard to see them trying to play either. (Update: PIT/WAS has been PPD)
- CIN/OAK and STL/LAD are the warmest games of the evening, with temps in the 60s along with 5-10mph winds blowing out. CLE/BOS, TB/CHW, and ARI/COL will all be in the low 50s, with COL seeing 8-10mph wind blowing in.
- Dome games today include SEA/TOR, NYY/TEX, PHI/HOU, and LAA/MIL.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Aaron Judge will be out a bit with a hip injury, and Volpe is getting a day off so LeMahieu will hit leadoff and Calhoun will move up to cleanup.
- Jankowski and Jung sat out yesterday with their hip and hand injuries, respectively, but both are back in the lineup today.
- Yordan Alvarez has missed the last three games and remains out as he deals with neck soreness.
- With Montero being sent to the minors by COL, McMahon is at 3B and Trejo at 2B. Yonathan Daza is still out with his hand injury so Brenton Doyle will continue to start in CF.
- Wil Myers went on the IL for the Reds, so Stephenson should get most of the starts at 1B, with Casali and Maile helping more at catcher. Steer can also help at 1B if needed, and depending on who the A’s start today we could see an all-righty lineup.
- DeJong should be the everyday SS for the Cardinals, as his bat is too hot to take out of the lineup right now. This will squeeze Donovan out of regular starts assuming they go with Edman at 2B mostly, and with Walker being sent down, look for O’Neill and Carlson to split time at the third OF position against righties.
- Max Muncy is on track to return from the paternity list today, but JD Martinez could require an IL stint, so we’re keeping him out of the lineup for now. Will Smith also has a chance to return and play DH tonight.
- The Braves activated Michael Harris, so he’ll be in the projected lineup, but I doubt his game plays today.
- With so many top SPs going today and a couple of mediocre pitchers going in Coors Field, ARI and COL are the clear top stacks today. I’ll call ARI the 1A stack and COL the 1B stack as I like the prices of more of the ARI bats along with their matchup with Freeland. The Dodgers are another stack with big upside against the erratic Flaherty who’s allowed 7 ER over his last two starts. Milwaukee is another team with a pretty big run total currently against the lefty Anderson, who has been awful over his last three starts having allowed 16 ER with just seven total strikeouts. Lower-owned stacks I like having exposure to include CLE, OAK, LAA, and TBR.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Like Cole yesterday, any slate with Jacob deGrom ($11,400) on it is a slate I will likely use him as my cash game SP. deGrom also gets the added benefit of facing a Yankees team without Aaron Judge, and currently they’re the only team with a projected run total below three. There’s a ton of SP’s cheaper than him that I want exposure to in GPPs today, but none that are cheap enough even to make me consider not using deGrom in cash games.
- Emmanuel Rivera ($2,400) will likely hit second for ARI today against the lefty Freeland. At almost the minimum price, the platoon advantage, and an above-average skill set, Rivera is my favorite value bat of the slate. Marte ($3,300), Gurriel ($3,200), and Walker ($3,400) all come at pretty cheap prices as well if you want to go full ARI stack in cash games.
- On the COL side, their entire projected lineup is $3,400 or cheaper, so I will likely have at least 2-3 of their bats and possibly four for a full game stack with deGrom at SP. CJ Cron ($3,300) is 5 for 13 in his career vs. Kelly, Kris Bryant ($3,400) is 8 for 19, and Charlie Blackmon ($3,100) is 6 for 20, so those are my top three to target. Profar and McMahon are a combined 6 for 38 against Kelly and are secondary targets.
- If you want to get away from Coors in a few of your cash game positions, I’d look at LAD and MIL first. Freddie Freeman ($3,500) remains too cheap along with Mookie Betts ($3,600), and James Outman ($3,500) is always in play with the platoon advantage in the heart of the order. MIL’s entire projected lineup is $3,200 or cheaper, so pretty much anyone is in play for value, depending on your positional needs. Mike Brosseau ($2,400) is a fantastic extreme value play hitting cleanup, while Willy Adames ($3,000) is my next favorite p/$ play as he dropped $200 in price and is just way too cheap for someone with his upside. Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Betts today.
- Alek Manoah ($6,900) bounced back in a big way his last start going for almost 24 FP, and his price only went up $100. His matchup with Seattle is “OK” at best, but at this low of a salary I’d strongly consider him as an SP2 in cash games with Jacob deGrom ($11,500) at SP1.
- Emmanuel Rivera ($2,600) remains way too cheap and is the first bat I’m locking into cash games. Lourdes Gurriel ($4,200) and Christian Walker ($3,800) come at great prices as well and are my next favorite ARI bats, while Gabriel Moreno ($3,300) will almost certainly be my cash game catcher.
- COL bats are priced up compared to FD, especially Bryant and Cron, but Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) remains very affordable and is my favorite play from them today, along with Jurickson Profar ($3,400).
- James Outman ($4,100) is by far my favorite p/$ bat from the Dodgers, and Jason Heyward ($2,400) remains free on DK if you want some extreme value and more LAD exposure.
- Mike Brosseau ($2,300) also remains basically free at close to min price and is my top pivot from Rivera at 3B. William Contreras ($3,700) is also at a salary that is making it a tough choice between him and Moreno, but I will certainly go with one or the other in my main build at catcher.
- Oakland’s projected lineup is comically cheap today, as Brent Rooker ($3,400) is the most expensive option. Esteury Ruiz ($3,100) has the highest stolen base upside of anyone on the slate (stole five bases over his last two games), so if he gets on base in any fashion, you can pretty much add 5+ FP to his score right away. Conner Capel ($2,100) and Ryan Noda ($2,200) are a couple more extreme value bats to consider if you desperately need the savings, but overall this is a team I would look to stack in GPPs with two elite SPs.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!