MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, August 11th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, August 11th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Massive 13-game slate to close the week, which will see the return of Chris Sale. Overall weather is looking very safe, although STL/KCR is pretty precarious currently with potential game-ending storms as a possibility.
Bryce Harper is the biggest question mark on the injury front with lower back spasms, along with a sprained pinky finger for Luis Robert. A lot to talk about with 26 teams in play, so let’s check out some news, notes and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Roth is deeming STL/KCR “all or nothing” right now with a yellow/orange rating. Current models have game-ending type storms just north of the ballpark, but if those shift or are off by even 5 miles, then this game could get PPD very quickly . It’s too early to know for sure, but if models are correct, they could play with storms rumbling in the background, but make sure to check for an update later if you plan on using anyone here. This is also our warmest game with temps in the low 90s to mid 80s.
- OAK/WSH, MIN/PHI, CIN/PIT, DET/BOS, ATL/NYM, and MIL/CHW are all similar with temps in the low 80s to high 70s. COL/LAD will be in the mid 60s, while TEX/SFG will be in the high 50s.
- Dome games today are BAL/SEA, SDP/ARI, LAA/HOU, and CHC/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Tony Kemp is going on the paternity list today, and Lawrence Butler is being called up to take his spot. Butler is a lefty outfielder and could see regular starts against righties until Kemp returns.
- I’m expecting Donovan Solano to remain out with his knee and ankle injuries, so Farmer and Gallo should get most of the 1B time until he returns.
- Bryce Harper left yesterday early with a mid-back spasm, so there’s a good chance he gets today off. Philly has plenty of righty bats to take his spot against Keuchel, while Bohm should handle 1B.
- Jonathan India remains out for the Reds, and Friedl is now in the leadoff spot with De La Cruz down to third.
- Luis Robert sprained his pinky finger last game and is out of the lineup today. Everyone moves up a spot in the order and Thompson will start for him.
- Jose Abreu’s lower back has been acting up lately, and he’ll be out of the lineup today with Singleton getting the start for him.
- Drew Waters went on the bereavement list yesterday with Nelson Velazquez taking his spot. Against Wainwright, it should be a pretty regular KC lineup with either Blanco or another righty starting for Waters.
- Brendan Rodgers has sat out three games now with hamstring tightness, so look for Castro or Trejo to handle 2B if he remains out.
- I’m expecting JD Martinez to remain out for LAD, so we should see a similar lineup as yesterday against another lefty.
- Cedric Mullins is off the IL and should be back in there at CF. We’ll see if it’s at leadoff or in the middle of the order.
- Philly is my top stack at home against Keuchel, followed by LAD, ATL, TOR, and HOU.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- We have some fantastic pitching options to choose from today, as every SP above $9,500 has a case for being your cash game target. Lance Lynn ($9,900) is probably the best p/$ option at home against the Rockies, who currently have the lowest projected run total of the slate. Blake Snell ($11,000) is my next favorite target if you have the extra salary, while Charlie Morton ($8,500) is the cheapest SP on the board I’d consider for cash games, if you absolutely need more salary for bats. Burnes, Castillo, Verlander, Abbott, and Gibson are all strong GPP plays that I would have exposure to if you’re doing MME.
- George Springer ($3,000) continues to be underpriced for someone on a seven game hitting streak, hitting .500 during that span, so he’s the first bat I’m locking into cash games. Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($3,200) is also way too cheap and a great bat to pair with Springer for a TOR mini-stack, and you could also include Matt Chapman ($3,000).
- Keuchel is not a serious pitcher anymore, coming off a zero strikeout game last start, so load up on some Philly bats in cash games. Nick Castellanos ($3,100) and Trea Turner ($2,900) are two of the best values of the entire slate and are cash game locks for me, while Alec Bohm ($3,200) and JT Realmuto ($2,900) also come at fantastic prices if you want a full stack.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Trea Turner on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- If the STL/KC game plays, then I’d look at Michael Massey ($2,400) as a top value option at 2B, along with MJ Melendez ($2,900) in the OF.
- Rosario ($2,800), Taylor ($2,600), and Hernandez ($2,400) remain fantastic options to get some cheap LAD exposure, and some other value bats to consider in your main build include CJ Abrams ($3,100), Carlos Correa ($2,700), Willy Adames ($2,900), Alex Bregman ($3,200), TJ Friedl ($3,000), and Seth Brown ($2,600).
- Lance Lynn ($8,900) remains my top p/$ cash game SP on DK, and I think Blake Snell ($10,600) remains a bit too cheap and will likely be my other cash game SP. Joan Adon ($6,600) is someone worth considering as well, as he gets one of the best matchups against OAK and is coming off a 23.7 FP game on the road against CIN. Kyle Gibson ($7,700) is also at a fantastic price for someone coming off b2b games over 20 FP.
- I really hope the weather starts looking better in KC, as right now I’m considering Massey ($3,000) and Melendez ($3,300) two of the best p/$ bats for DK cash games.
- Belt ($3,200) is the best value from TOR, and I still really like getting at least one of Springer ($5,000) or Guerrero ($5,100) in your cash game lineup.
- Castellanos ($4,800) is on a ten game hit streak with five HRs over his last seven games, and is my favorite Philly bat for the price. Turner ($5,200), Bohm ($4,700), and Realmuto ($5,000) are all in play depending on your salary available and positional needs.
- Taylor ($3,400) and Hernandez ($3,000) remain great LAD value options, and if you want another value stack to consider look at Minnesota with Farmer ($3,000), Luplow ($2,200), and Jeffers ($3,300).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!