MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, August 4th
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, August 4th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big 11-game slate to end the week that could see a couple games with rain issues. It’s also a slate without the Braves, Coors Field, or the Dodgers/Rangers getting an easy matchup, so stack ownership should be a lot more spread out then usual.
Lots to talk about so let’s get to some news, notes, and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- TOR/BOS is our biggest concern, with a current rating of orange/yellow. Rain looks likely to move in during the game, so I will be avoiding pitchers here, and if the forecast doesn’t improve closer to lock, I’ll likely avoid bats as well. Temps in the low 70s, with 10mph wind out to left.
- HOU/NYY is currently yellow/orange, as there’s a chance for late game rain. The heaviest rain may stay far enough west that they can finish in light rain, but make sure to check for an update closer to lock. Temps in the low 70s, with a 10mph right to left breeze.
- KCR/PHI is rated yellow with a chance for storms moving in right around the end of the game. As of now, I’m not fading Nola or the Philly bats unless the forecast gets much worse closer to lock. Temps in the low 70s, with 5-10mph wind out to center.
- ARI/MIN, COL/STL, SEA/LAA and NYM/BAL are the warmest games, with temps in the low 80s to high 70s, while LAD/SDP has the coolest temps in the high 60s.
- CHW/CLE will be in the mid 70s, with 8mph wind blowing in, and today’s dome games are MIA/TEX & PIT/MIL.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Rizzo will be out a bit with concussion symptoms, so look for Bauers to get most of the 1B time against righties. Judge is getting a breather today so Kiner-Falefa will hit leadoff with Bauers in the 2-hole.
- There’s a chance both Nimmo and Marte return for the Mets, but if neither do then Stewart and Ortega will continue to receive starts.
- Eloy Jimenez is out for the White Sox, so Vaughn will hit cleanup and Colas will DH.
- Josh Naylor is going on the IL, so Fry should see regular starts at 1B now for Cleveland. Tyler Freeman is also going on the IL, so guys like Arias and Rocchio will be regulars at SS and occasionally other infield positions.
- Buxton is going on the IL and will be out at least two weeks. Wallner and Castro should get most of his time against righties, and newly added Luplow against lefties.
- Against a lefty, look for TOR to load up on righties, and there’s a chance that Davis Schneider cracks the lineup, as he’s expected to be called up today.
- JD Martinez is expected to return Saturday at the earliest, so someone else will DH for LAD again tonight. Muncy is getting a game off after a HBP in the wrist yesterday.
- Christian Arroyo was optioned by Boston and Luis Urias was called up. Urias and Reyes should get most of the 2B starts now. Justin Turner remains out with his heel injury.
- Drury is off the IL and Neto is going on the IL for LAA, and Choi will make his Padres debut hitting seventh.
- PHI and STL are my top stacks today, with both at home in solid hitting weather against mediocre righties. BOS, MIL, BAL, and HOU are other top stacks to have exposure to.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Aaron Nola ($9,900) is where I’m currently leaning for cash game SP, as he gets a home matchup with the Royals, who have the fourth worst OPS against righties this year along with the worst OPS on the road. KC is the only team with a projected run total below 3.5 currently, so I think Nola’s upside is just too high in this spot to not consider for cash games. If I were to spend a bit more salary, then Luis Castillo ($10,700) would be my pick, while Adam Wainwright ($6,300) is my extreme salary saver pick if you want to load up on bats. Mid-range/cheap SPs I like today include Montgomery ($9,500), Brown ($9,200), Detmers ($9,000), Kremer ($8,900), and Rea ($7,500).
- I will be targeting Lyles’ 7+ road ERA first with Philly bats in cash games. Bryce Harper ($3,400) is still a value at this price, and his 1B/OF eligibility should make it very easy to find a spot for him. Bohm ($3,300), Castellanos ($3,000), Stott ($3,100), and Realmuto ($3,000) are all excellent value options depending on your positional needs, and I’d make sure to have at least a few stack variations in GPPs that also include Schwarber ($3,800).
I like taking higher than 8 FP for Harper on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Chris Flexen is a low strikeout declining SP who’s given up at least 1 HR in five of his last six outings, so STL is where I’m going next. Contreras ($2,900) and O’Neill ($2,600) are one of my favorite value combos today likely hitting 5th and 6th, and Nolan Arenado ($3,400) remains at a fantastic price hitting cleanup.
- There might not be a hotter hitter in baseball than Ryan Mountcastle ($3,400), coming off a series in which he hit .846. With the platoon advantage against Peterson in solid hitting weather at home, he’s one of the top 1B targets for cash games. Austin Hays ($2,800) remains at a great price likely hitting cleanup coming off a four hit game, and I’d make sure to have a full stack somewhere in a GPP that includes Rutschman ($3,300) and Santander ($3,600) as well.
- The Brewers are coming off a 14-1 blowout, and will likely put up some runs today against Priester, who’s allowed 4+ ER in each of his three starts. Contreras ($3,000), Adames ($3,000), and Frelick ($3,000) are all in play for value, while Yelich ($3,600) is a bit pricier but has as much upside as anyone today.
- Nola ($10,000) isn’t as much of a value on DK as he is on FD, but he is absolutely still in play for cash games, along with Castillo ($10,200). Hunter Brown ($8,400) is extremely tempting at this low of a price even in Yankee Stadium with Judge back in the lineup, and Jordan Montgomery ($8,100) is also at a fantastic price with plenty of motivation to do well in his first start as a Ranger against Miami. Dean Kremer ($7,200) and Adam Wainwright ($6,000) are a super cheap SP combo that could both put up 20+ FP each and really allow you to load up on bats.
- Like Nola, Bryce Harper ($5,400) is much more appealing at his FD price, and I don’t consider him a must-play in cash games on DK. For much cheaper, I’m looking at guys like Schwarber ($4,600), Bohm ($4,000), Castellanos ($4,400), and Stott ($4,200) for Philly exposure in my main build today.
- Arenado ($5,400) is also priced out of “must-play” territory, while Contreras ($3,700), O’Neill ($3,500), and Gorman ($4,100) are much better p/$ plays from STL and I’ll likely have a couple of them in my cash game lineup.
- Ryan Mountcastle ($3,800) is my favorite cash game bat on DK, as he should be closer to $4,800 and this is probably our last chance to play him for under $4k. Austin Hays ($3,300) is also a top cash game value bat from Baltimore.
- Sal Frelick ($3,900) is my favorite p/$ play from the Brewers, and I also really like the price of Steven Kwan ($3,800) if you want some CLE exposure.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!