MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, June 16
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, June 16th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re ending the week with a mammoth 14-game slate, that will only be without BAL and CHC, who play each other at 2:20pm EST. There are plenty of aces to choose from in cash games, and we’ll see if guys like Teheran, Walker, and Abbott can continue their recent streak of excellent outings and be strong GPP plays. Emmet Sheehan is also reportedly making his MLB debut for the Dodgers, so we’ll see if sites add him to the SP pool later today.
The Braves look like the top offense on the board with a huge 6.5 run total currently. However, with 27 other teams in play there are plenty of other great MLB DFS picks. Let’s start with some news and notes before building those lineups!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- STL/NYM is our only game with orange in the rating, but Roth thinks there’s a window to get this game in if the high-res model continues to show a clearing during gametime. Temps in the 60s if it plays.
- MIA/WSH is rated yellow, as a late start is possible, but the game should get in eventually. Temps in the 70s here.
- NYY/BOS is rated yellow/green, with a few showers in the area but likely not enough to stop play once the game starts, which could be after a late start. Temps in the 70s.
- COL/ATL is our hottest game with temps in the 80s and 8-10mph wind out to left. LAA/KC is right there as well, with temps in the 80s and a slight breeze blowing in. DET/MIN is close behind with temps in the high 70s and a slight breeze blowing in.
- PHI/OAK, SF/LAD and TB/SDP will be in the 60s, with the former two seeing a 5-10mph breeze blowing out.
- Dome games today include CHW/SEA, CLE/ARI, PIT/MIL, CIN/HOU, and TOR/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Boston is moving away from Casas and Hernandez for defensive reasons, so against righties, I’d expect Pablo Reyes to get most of the starts at SS and Turner to play 1B. Casas can still make the lineup as the DH a lot or they could go with Duran. Hernandez could be looking at only starts against lefties either at 2B or CF.
- Jorge Alfaro was called up by the Rockies yesterday with Serven being sent down, and against a lefty today, he will catch with Diaz at DH. McMahon is getting a breather so Jones will play 3B.
- Snitker said he’s planning to keep Ozzie Albies in the 2-hole even against a righty, making him an even better play than he already was. d’Arnaud is catching today with Murphy off.
- Victor Robles is off the IL for Washington, and Alex Call has been sent down to AAA.
- Whit Merrifield is getting a rare start in the 2-hole for TOR, and at $3k/$3.6k on FD/DK he is a pretty appealing value option now.
- Marcano looks to be the regular leadoff hitter against righties for PIT now. Wiemer is back down to 8th in the order for MIL after getting a chance in the 2-hole last game vs. a lefty.
- Drury will be back after serving his 1-game suspension yesterday. Rendon and Ward are getting breathers, so Moniak will hit leadoff and Rengifo will play 3B.
- Elly De La Cruz is getting his first game off, and Nick Senzel is off the IL to start at 3B for him today.
- Max Muncy is expected to remain out with his hamstring strain, so Taylor will likely keep starting at 3B.
- Pretty much every factor is making ATL the top stack of the slate. They’re at home in great hitting weather against a pitcher (Lamet) with a 12.46 road ERA this season. Plenty of their bats are cheap enough on both sites to stack them in cash games. The Angels are my next favorite stack also hitting in 80 degree heat, followed by TOR and PHI.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- He hasn’t lived up to his Cy Young award last year yet, but Sandy Alcantara ($8,800) is still an ace and draws a solid matchup with Washington today. He’s about $1k cheaper than any other SP I’m considering for cash games, so if I love the lineup I end with and he fits at SP, I’ll go with him in. I also really like Michael Kopech ($9,800) against Seattle, as he’s an SP that should see around 100 pitches if he does well, has 6+ strikeouts in each of his last five starts, and is in a pitchers’ park today. Ryan, Gausman, and McClanahan are all $11k+ and will be in my GPP pool, along with Gallen, McKenzie, Walker, Hill. For super cheap, I don’t mind taking a shot on Shuster and Woo.
- Matt Olson ($3,800) is my top play of the slate and a cash game priority today. Lamet has been overall terrible this season, but he’s been especially bad against lefties allowing a .400 average, 1.195 OPS, and all three of his HR’s allowed. For the same reasons, Ozzie Albies ($3,100) will 100% be in my cash game lineup as he remains way too cheap. Austin Riley ($3,000) is also too cheap still and is going to have one of his 2 HR breakout games sooner rather than later. After those three, I’ll do my best to fit in Acuna ($4,600), but if I need to go cheaper, then d’Arnaud ($2,700) or Rosario ($2,700) will be who I go with for a full ATL stack.
- Shohei Ohtani ($4,300) is obviously one of the best cash game plays if you can afford him, as he’s gone for over 20 FP in ten of his last thirteen games. If you want cheaper Angels exposure, then Moniak ($2,900), Renfroe ($2,800), and Thaiss ($2,500) are who I’d consider.
- Philly has a couple of pieces I like targeting in cash games, as Trea Turner ($3,300) and JT Realmuto ($3,100) are still very affordable. Both offer the HR and SB combo upside I’m looking for in a cash game bat. George Springer ($3,100) also has those traits and remains way too cheap with the platoon advantage today, while Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($3,300) continues to drop in price and is a solid 1B option today if you don’t go with Olson.
- More cheap bats I like today include Bobby Witt ($3,300), Luis Arraez ($2,900), Jesus Sanchez ($2,700), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100), Luis Matos ($2,000), Willy Adames ($2,900), and Matt Chapman ($3,100).
I like taking higher than 9.5 fantasy points for Witt on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Alcantara ($9,100) and Kopech ($9,300) are both just a bit too cheap in my opinion, and right now they’re my favorite cash game SP duo. There are a bunch of cheaper SPs I like a lot on DK today, especially Abbott ($7,100), Walker ($7,000), Hill ($6,700), and Woo ($5,400) if you need the salary for more expensive bats.
- Olson ($6,300) is expensive but still a priority for me, while Albies ($4,800) should be easy to fit at 2B, and Rosario ($3,500) is a great OF option for more ATL exposure. Acuna ($6,600) and Riley ($5,500) are cash game luxuries at those prices if you can afford either, while d’Arnaud ($4,200) is easily my favorite catcher today.
- Jesus Sanchez ($2,800) is standing out as a top value play today. He dropped $200 in price since his last game, should hit cleanup or fifth today with the platoon advantage, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s 2 for 6 with an HR in his career against Williams.
- Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200) is also looking like a great cash game value at SS, as he is in great hitting weather with the platoon advantage, and is starting to show more pop lately with two HR’s over his last five games. If you want to go even cheaper at SS, then Maikel Garcia ($2,200) is a fine option also hitting in great weather.
- Esteury Ruiz ($3,100) is at his lowest salary in over two weeks, and with his pretty much automatic stolen base upside if he gets on base, I would definitely consider him in cash games if you need another value OF. Luis Matos ($2,600) will also be in cash game consideration for me if he’s in the SF lineup and hits seventh or higher.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!