MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, June 23
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, June 23rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Big 10-game main slate to end the week, and it’s going to be a fun one, as we have the Angels starting a series in Coors Field and Chris Bassitt facing one of his former teams in a great bounce-back spot at home against Oakland.
It’s also the second opportunity for Emmet Sheehan, who was solid in his MLB debut against SF, but draws a tougher matchup with Houston today. We’ll see if Tim Anderson, JP Crawford, LaMonte Wade, and Mike Yastrzemski are able to suit up, as all can be considered questionable today.
Lots of interesting news and notes to get to, and there are plenty of other MLB DFS picks besides the chalky Angels today. So let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYM/PHI will likely see enough rain to cause a late start or delay, but if they wait it out, they should be able to play. Temps in the 70s with a slight breeze out.
- TEX/NYY will start dry, but there’s concern of storms arriving in the later innings, which could cause an early end to the game. Or they could get lucky and the storms come right after game time. Temps in the low 70s with 8mph wind blowing in.
- SEA/BAL rain should clear out by first pitch, and the chance of redevelopment is pretty low during the game. Temps in the 70s with a slight breeze out to left. Make sure to check back closer to lock, as these three rain games could drastically shift in forecast by then.
- MIL/CLE could have a late start but should play fine after, with temps in the mid 60s and a slight breeze blowing in. BOS/CHW will be in the low 70s with a breeze in from left. LAA/COL will be in the 70s with a 10-12mph wind in from left.
- WSH/SDP will be in the low 60s with a breeze in from left. HOU/LAD will be in the mid 60s with 5-10mph wind blowing out. AZ/SFG will be in the 50s with 10-12 mph wind blowing out. OAK/TOR is the lone dome game today.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Crawford remains out for Seattle so Kelenic will hit leadoff again. Ford is getting a rare day off against a righty, so Raleigh will DH with Murphy at catcher.
- Ramon Laureano is going on the IL and Conner Cappel is taking his spot, hitting ninth today. Ruiz is getting a day off so Kemp will hit leadoff.
- Donaldson and Bader are sitting for the Yankees, with LeMahieu at 3B and Kiner-Falefa at CF today.
- Verdugo remains on the bereavement list and Duran is getting a day off, so Rob Refsnyder will get a rare start against a righty and hit leadoff. Pablo Reyes is going on the IL, so Hamilton should get most of the SS starts again righties.
- Tim Anderson is back in the lineup hitting second today
- Gimenez is getting a day off for CLE, so Tyler Freeman will start at 2B and hit sixth.
- Ezequiel Tovar is off the paternity list and back for the Rockies, so look for him in the 2-hole today. Alfaro is getting a breather, so Diaz will catch and Grichuk will DH.
- LaMonte Wade has a good shot of returning to the Giants lineup. Mike Yastrzemski got good news on his hamstring but may take another game or two off just to make sure. If Yaz sits, look for Bryce Johnson to fill one of the OF spots.
- The Angels are the clear stop stack today, currently sitting at a 6.3 run total. The Rockies and Padres are my next favorite stacks, followed by TOR, LAD, and CLE.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Against right-handed pitching this season, the White Sox have the fourth lowest OPS, the fourth lowest batting average, and the seventh most strikeouts. This makes Brayan Bello ($8,700) an extremely appealing cash game play, as he’s coming off a 52 FP game, has three or less ER in all but one start this season, and is the 11th most expensive SP. None of the most expensive SPs are jumping off the page as must-plays, making Bello an even stronger value play. But if I was to spend up on someone, it would be either Senga ($9,900), Bieber ($9,600), or Bassitt ($9,300).
- Manny Machado ($2,900) is way too cheap for a matchup with Corbin and is my favorite cash game play on FD. I also love the price of Nelson Cruz ($2,300) with the platoon advantage, and his salary will help you fit in more expensive Angels bats. Gary Sanchez ($2,800) is also worth mentioning as a high upside value bat today from SD.
- Speaking of expensive, Shohei Ohtani ($5,000) is about as pricey as I can remember any bat ever being on FanDuel, but I can’t fault anyone for finding a way to get him in your cash game lineup. For $600 cheaper, I prefer going with Mike Trout ($4,400) if I’m only using one of the two in my main build. And for even cheaper, I love Brandon Drury ($3,600) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,100).
I like taking higher than 2 total bases for Trout on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Elias Diaz ($3,000) and Ezequiel Tovar ($3,100) are my favorite p/$ bats to get exposure to the Rockies offense today, while Grichuk ($3,400) and Montero ($2,600) are squarely in play at those prices and make for a great full value stack.
- For the price, matchup, and recent performance, I’m going with Bello ($8,400) and Walker ($7,700) in cash games. Going with a couple cheaper SPs will make it much easier to fit in more Angels bats, and I think those two SPs have just as much upside as any of the more expensive options. If you wanted to go even cheaper, then I’d consider Sheehan ($6,500) or Davies ($5,500), while my favorite spend-up SPs are Senga ($10,200), Bieber ($9,400), and Bassitt ($9,200).
- Ohtani ($6,700) and Trout ($6,500) are rightly two of the three most expensive hitters today, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of cash game lineups did everything possible to fit both in. If you only go with one, I’d lean Trout, as Freeland has a lower K% and much higher HR/9 to righties this season. Drury ($5,000) and Renfroe ($4,500) are much cheaper options to get LAA exposure in cash games, and both have strong career numbers off Freeland, including just five total strikeouts between them in 40 career ABs. Ward ($4,400) is another fine option hitting leadoff, and Padlo ($2,400) is a decent extreme salary saver if he cracks the lineup.
- On the COL side, Diaz ($4,200) should be a popular cash game catcher, while Ezequiel Tovar ($3,200) is easily my favorite p/$ shortstop of the slate, and he’s bringing new dad strength from the 2-hole with the platoon advantage. Montero ($2,600) and Grichuk ($4,000) are more solid COL bats to target, while McMahon ($4,600) is still in play even the in the L/L matchup, as Sandoval has allowed a .327 average to lefties this season.
- The Padres are an offense I will try to have some exposure to in cash games if I don’t end up going with a full LAA/COL stack. Manny Machado ($5,300) is my favorite target, as the 3B spot is one of the weaker positions on the slate, and Machado is 7 for 18 with just 2 strikeouts in his career against Corbin. Tatis ($6,600) is one of the best GPP plays of the slate, as most of the exposure in his price range will go to Ohtani/Trout. And if you want a catcher outside of Coors Field, then Gary Sanchez ($4,000) comes at a great price.
- If you need an extreme salary saver to help fit your favorite lineup, I’d consider Jake Bauers ($2,700). He’s gone for 12+ FP in three of his last four games, has the platoon advantage in a great hitters park, and does have a bit of stolen base upside from the leadoff spot. Billy McKinney ($2,500) is another cheap Yankees OF that’s swinging a hot bat and worth consideration.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!