MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, June 30
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, June 30th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re back to huge slates as we have 12 games today to close out the week and month. The Tigers begin a series in Coors Field and are easily one of the best places to go for value bats today. After McClanahan, there’s a big group of SPs that have shown massive ceilings at times this year, but none are super comfortable for cash games either because of their price, matchup or both.
Lots to talk about before getting to some MLB DFS picks, so let’s get going!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYY/STL is currently our riskiest game with an orange rating. Roth thinks there’s about a 70% chance for storms during the game time that could lead to a very long delay or even a PPD. The National Weather Service has a 20% chance for game time storms, so this risk rating could lessen by game time. We’ll know more closer to lock, but regardless I likely won’t target SPs here, but if it sounds like the game has a chance of playing, we have to consider using some bats as it will be 90 degrees.
- MIN/BAL & LAD/KCR are both rated yellow currently, with the former looking a bit less risky as any rain clears out in BAL closer to game time, so a late start is possible, but that game should play. Temps in the low 80s with 10mph out to left. KC will have storms around the ballpark that could lead to a dry game if they don’t end over the park. It’s too early to bank on that happening so just know there’s a chance for a delay, and risk could be increased closer to lock time. Temps in the low 90s to high 80s here with left to right 10mph wind.
- MIA/ATL has fantastic hitting weather with temps in the high 80s, 50-70% humidity, and 5-10mph wind out to center.
- MIL/PIT will be in the high 70s. SF/NYM will be in the mid-70s. ARI/LAA and CHW/OAK will be in the low 70s with a breeze out. DET/COL will be in the high 60s with a breeze in.
- Dome games include TB/SEA, HOU/TEX, and BOS/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Turang replaced Urias on the Brewers roster yesterday and should get most of the 2B time against righties. Miller and Anderson will handle 3B now.
- Alejandro Kirk came off the IL yesterday and will likely DH or catch again against a lefty. We’ll see if Kiermaier is ready to return from his back spasms, but against a lefty, they may give him another day.
- Michael Conforto will need more time off with his hamstring tightness, so Wilmer Flores will draw a rare start against a righty today and Pederson will start again in RF.
- Kris Bryant is likely activated today for the Rockies, and if so, it would hurt the playing time of Grichuk and Doyle against righties.
- Corbin Carroll left yesterday’s game early with shoulder soreness, so for now, I’d expect him to get today off and possibly longer. Dominic Fletcher will be recalled and could start right away for him.
- There are a bunch of great stack options today, and I think I like ATL and LAD better than either of the Coors Field teams. LAD faces a rookie righty making his MLB debut in 90+ degree temps, while ATL faces a low strikeout righty in Hoeing in 85+ degree temps, high humidity, and wind blowing out. TEX is another great stack option outside of Coors, hitting at home against the mediocre righty Blanco, while LAA, CHW, and NYY are all high-upside stacks worth having exposure to. Detroit has their highest run total of the season at just under six currently and are definitely worth stacking up in GPPs and using for value in cash games. Lastly, COL is a stack I don’t mind using in GPPs, as they’ll get a boost from Kris Bryant’s return, but I’m not looking to go too heavy on them in cash games.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Against lefties this year, the Mariners have the seventh most strikeouts, the ninth least HRs, and the seventh lowest OPS. This leads me to go with Shane McClanahan ($11,000) in cash games, as the game is in Seattle, which is a pitchers’ park, and I just think he has the most upside and likely the highest floor of any SP going today. So many other top SPs today have matchups I don’t love like Paxton vs TOR, Gray vs HOU, and Lopez vs BAL, or they’re pitching in hitting conditions that just favor the bats too much like Miller vs KC and Soroka vs MIA. Dean Kremer ($8,700) is cheap enough to consider as a cash game alternative as he’s gone for 30+ FP in four of his last five starts, and the Twins’ offense is really struggling to score lately. Freddy Peralta ($9,200) is another guy I’d expect to see in peoples’ cash game lineups as he dominated the Pirates just two starts ago and is very affordable. Overall though, McClanahan’s matchup, park factors, and upside all lead me to paying up for him in my main build today.
- It will be hard not having, or at least wanting, a bunch of Tigers bats in cash games. Their entire projected lineup is $3,100 or cheaper, in Coors Field, against the blow-up and HR-prone Gomber. Spencer Torkelson ($3,100) is my priority as he has by far the most upside, with three HRs over his last two games, and is about $500 too cheap given his matchup today. All of Vierling ($3,100), Ibanez ($2,800), Baez ($3,100), and Rogers ($3,000) will be in cash game consideration, and I can’t see myself with less than two DET bats in my main build.
I like taking higher than two 1.5 total bases for Torkelson on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- With temps in the high 80s in St. Louis, the Yankees offer some solid value today with the platoon advantage on the lefty Liberatore. Giancarlo Stanton ($2,900) is starting to heat up as he’s averaged over 15 FPPG over his last four games, so this might be our last shot to use him for under $3k in a great spot today. Bader ($3,100) will be looking for some revenge against his former team at a great price, while LeMahieu ($2,500) and Torres ($2,800) should hit 1-2 and are strong value options either to complete a full NYY stack or as one-offs in your main build.
- After leaving Coors Field, the Dodgers’ salaries have depressed a bit, and with temps in the 90s in KC today, I’d get at least two LAD bats in your main build. Max Muncy ($3,300) dropped $400 in price and is my favorite p/$ play from them, followed by David Peralta ($2,400), who also dropped $400 in salary. JD Martinez ($3,700) continues to be one of the hottest hitters in MLB with another 40+ FP game yesterday, while Betts, Freeman, and Smith are all in play depending on your salary and positional needs. Overall this is a team I’d stack up various ways in tournaments and would definitely get some exposure to in cash games.
- ATL is similar to LAD, as their expensive bats are all some of the best plays of the slate, and I’d try getting at least one of Olson ($4,000), Acuna ($4,500), Albies ($3,600), or Riley ($3,700) in cash games. Murphy ($3,400), Ozuna ($3,100), and Rosario ($2,900) are cheaper options to consider as cash game one-offs, but I’d look to stack this team up in GPPs a variety of ways if you don’t go heavy in cash games.
- TEX is another team that I love, but we’re running out of salary and space in cash games to fit the likes of Semien ($3,700), Seager ($4,200), and Garcia ($4,000). Lowe ($3,100) would be my top p/$ target if I found a spot for at least one of their bats in cash games, while Jung ($3,400) and Heim ($3,200) are other affordable options. I have to mention more value options from LAA and CHW as I think both teams put up 5+ runs today, so consider Ward ($2,800), Drury ($3,200), and Renfroe ($2,900) from LAA, and from CHW I like the prices of Benintendi ($2,700), Anderson ($2,500), Jimenez ($3,200), and Vaughn ($3,000).
- At SP, I will likely be using two of McClanahan ($11,000), Peralta ($9,700), and Kremer ($8,100) in cash games. I want McClanahan, of course, and will likely pair him with Kremer, but if I absolutely need the extra ($1,300) for bats, I don’t mind lowering him to Peralta. Michael Soroka ($7,100) is cheap enough to take a shot on in GPPs, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see others risk him in cash games, while Griffin Canning ($8,300) is someone else who I think can put up a solid line for another GPP option.
- Detroit remains the go-to team for value, as Vierling ($3,500), Torkelson ($4,000), and Ibanez ($3,000) are all fantastic cash game plays likely hitting 1-3 with the platoon advantage. Baez ($4,900) is a bit too pricey given his floor, while Rogers ($4,000) is a strong catcher option if he makes the lineup. From the COL side, I like McMahon ($4,800) and Tovar ($3,800) best.
- The White Sox have some top-value plays as well, with guys like Vaughn ($3,200), Benintendi ($3,000), and Grandal ($3,200) at great salaries to help you fit in more expensive bats. Luis Robert ($4,700) can also be considered a value, as he continues to mash, and his price only went up $100 overnight. He also had two SBs yesterday, which is a great sign as he’d gone over two weeks without one.
- After loading up on DET (and CHW) value, I’ll likely pick and choose one-off expensive bats from all the other top offenses I’ve mentioned throughout. Christian Yelich ($4,400) is still too cheap and someone I will strongly consider in cash games. LeMahieu ($3,100) and Bader ($3,600) are my favorite p/$ plays for NYY exposure, and Peralta ($3,600) and Heyward ($3,100) are the best way to get LAD exposure for cheap.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!