MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, May 12
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, May 12th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
After a very small main slate yesterday it’s the opposite today, with a huge 13 game main slate to end the week. All games should play fine today, with some light rain at worst in a couple places, and Coors Field is back in play as the Rockies host the Phillies. Some big bats are returning from injury in Yoan Moncada and JD Martinez, and James Paxton will start his first MLB game since April of 2021.
I’m already seeing a bunch of SPs I’m loving and plenty of offenses I want exposure to, so let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAA/CLE will have some light rain that should be fine to just play through, along with HOU/CHW which may have a slight delay to start but will eventually play fine.
- TBB/NYY, PIT/BAL, and NYM/WSH are today’s warmest games with temps in the 80s and slight breezes blowing out.
- STL/BOS, CHC/MIN, TEX/OAK, LAA/CLE, and SDP/LAD will be slightly cooler with temps in the 70s and 60s. MIN will have the most wind from that group of games at 10mph blowing in.
- PHI/COL is technically the worst hitting weather with temps in the mid to low 50s and 10-15mph wind blowing in from center, but it’s still Coors Field so don’t bump down the bats too much. HOU/CHW will be in the high 50’s with 5-8 mph wind moving left to right, but with 90% humidity, I would still be happy to target bats here.
- Today’s dome games are ATL/TOR, KCR/MIL, and SFG/ARI, although most, if not all, of these games will likely have the roof open.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Anthony Volpe will move down to 7th in the order for the Yankees and Gleyber Torres will move to leadoff.
- Dubon is back for Houston along with Abreu, but McCormick remains out. Kyle Tucker has moved up to the cleanup spot.
- Salvador Perez is out of the lineup for KC, so Fermin will catch and Olivares will move up to third.
- Nico Hoerner is going on the IL, so Christopher Morel will hit leadoff today. Max Kepler left early with an injury yesterday and will be out today and possibly longer.
- Yoan Moncada will come off the IL for the White Sox, and Brandon Crawford has a chance to return as well for SF. Yasmani Grandal left early yesterday, so I’d expect him to be out today and Zavala to catch Kopech.
- Alec Bohm is up to second in the order tonight and is an even better play now for the Phillies. Trea Turner will hit leadoff and is my favorite play of the slate.
- J.D. Martinez will return to the lineup for the Dodgers after missing over two weeks with a back injury.
- Ramon Laureano is back from his concussion and will hit second tonight for the A’s.
- The Phillies are the only team with a projected run total above 6 currently, and are my top stack of the slate against the low strikeout lefty Gomber. The Rockies have a slightly tougher matchup against Walker coming off his best start of the year, but are still a team I have ranked highly as a stack. STL and BOS both have totals of 5.25 currently and hitting in great weather against two mediocre pitchers I would make sure to have stacks from both of these offenses somewhere today. The Yankees were dominated yesterday but are always stackable at home in great weather, and I also really like BAL, MIL, TEX, and HOU for stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole ($11,300) draws the same matchup as his last start against Tampa, in which he allowed 5 ER with only six strikeouts. He is still an elite SP and will be looking to bounce back in a big way, so if he isn’t your cash game SP make sure to have exposure to him in GPPs. Spencer Strider ($11,500) also draws a tough matchup with Toronto, but with 8+ strikeouts in every game this season, he’s currently my highest-upside pitcher of the slate and likely who I go with in cash games. Corbin Burnes ($10,000) and Sonny Gray ($10,800) are other SPs I really like today and will have GPP exposure to, and for cheaper, I like Logan Allen ($9,100) and Kyle Bradish ($6,200).
- I have to start with Philly in cash games today, and I don’t know how Trea Turner ($3,300) and JT Realmuto ($3,300) aren’t both closer to $4k today like Harper and Castellanos are. They both have the platoon advantage in Coors against a very mediocre lefty, and even though they will be popular, I’m still locking both in for cash games. Alec Bohm ($3,300) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,300) are also both super cheap and in play as well.
- The Rockies are also underpriced, with Grichuk ($3,600) as their only projected starter over $3.3k. Blackmon ($3,300), Profar ($3,200), and McMahon ($3,100) make for a fantastic value stack with the platoon advantage, while Bryant ($3,300) and Cron ($3,200) are great options for a full stack.
- STL should put up some runs today on Paxton in great hitting weather, and only Goldschmidt ($3,900) is priced above $3k for them as far as their righty bats go. Edman ($2,700), Arenado ($2,800), Contreras ($2,800), and Carlson ($2,600) are one of my favorite value stacks of the slate, and if you want to go even cheaper in the stack then Juan Yepez ($2,200) is your guy.
- BAL and MIL are a couple of my favorite offenses today, and both have plenty of value options in Rutschman ($3,000), Santander ($3,000), Mountcastle ($3,200), Miller ($2,300), Contreras ($2,800), and Adames ($3,000).
- Some other value bats I like today include Gleyber Torres ($3,000), Austin Riley ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,200), Alex Bregman ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,000), Kyle Farmer ($2,500), Carlos Correa ($2,700), and Joc Pederson ($2,900).
- Strider ($12,200) and Cole ($12,000) are crazy expensive on DK today, so I can’t blame anyone for using neither in cash games, although both are elite GPP plays at potential reduced ownership at such high salaries. Corbin Burnes ($9,200) comes at a great price and should be a popular cash game SP at home against KC, while Logan Allen ($7,800) is probably my top p/$ SP as he’s $1,300 cheaper than FD, and has gone for 8+ strikeouts and 2 or less ER in two of his three starts this year.
- The Phillies are priced much more correctly compared to FD, so the best way to get cheap exposure to them is at the bottom of their order with guys like Alec Bohm ($4,200), Josh Harrison ($2,500), Edmundo Sosa ($2,900), and Dalton Guthrie ($2,400) depending on who ends up starting. Profar ($4,200) is my favorite p/$ bat from COL, while Cron ($4,900) and Blackmon ($5,000) are still pretty affordable too.
- Dylan Carlson ($2,500), Juan Yepez ($2,900), and Paul DeJong ($2,700) are an excellent value trio from STL, and from MIL, I will be all over Owen Miller ($2,400) if he hits leadoff today. Over on Underdog today I like some STL bets, mainly higher 1.5 total bases for Goldschmidt and Arenado. If you’re a new user make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- More cheap bats to consider for cash games include Robbie Grossman ($2,500), Adam Frazier ($2,800), Eddie Rosario ($2,800), Triston Casas ($2,300), Josh Bell ($3,100), Kyle Farmer ($3,100), Michael Conforto ($3,100), and Ezequiel Duran ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!