MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, May 19
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, May 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Huge Friday slate with 12 games on tap, and at first glance this might be the weakest pitching pool for a 10+ game slate so far this season. Sandy Alcantara is jumping out as the the ace of the slate in a great matchup with SF, while Joe Ryan is coming off his third 10 strikeout game in his last seven starts, but does draw a tougher matchup with the Angels.
Carlos Carrasco is back for the Mets after missing a month, Karl Kauffmann will make his MLB debut for the Rockies, and my favorite SP matchup of the slate is the battle of the Bryces as Miller takes on Elder. Nico Hoerner will return to the Cubs lineup, along with Jose Altuve for Houston. For the Narrative Street fans, we have Xander Bogaerts facing his former Boston team, along with Kyle Schwarber against the Cubs.
There are so many great offenses to target today so let’s get to some MLB DFS picks along with the news and notes for today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Great weather overall today, as only LAD/STL has some rain in the forecast, but it looks likely to play after a potential delay. Temps in the high 60s, 11mph wind blowing in from left, and 70%+ humidity.
- SEA/ATL, DET/WSH, CHC/PHI, CLE/NYM, KC/CHW, MIN/LAA, and BOS/SDP will all be in the 60s with high humidity. MIA/SF is the coldest game in the high 50s with 20+ mph wind blowing out to center.
- Today’s dome games are OAK/HOU, COL/TEX, and BAL/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Cubs will get back Nico Hoerner from his hamstring injury, but Bellinger is going on the IL with his knee contusion. Jose Altuve will return from his thumb injury for Houston, which will take Dubon out of the lineup.
- The Twins keep getting banged up as Nick Gordon has a shin fracture and is out indefinitely, Jorge Polanco is dealing with a mild hamstring strain, and Joey Gallo took “the worst foul off his leg he’s ever had” last game. Kyle Garlick is heading to Anaheim and should be in the lineup against a lefty, so Gallo will likely be out anyways, while Polanco will likely need more time than just tomorrow off. Mike Trout is off today so Moniak will start in CF and hit leadoff.
- Jose Ramirez is back from the bereavement list today, and Josh Naylor is back from his tight hamstring. Joey Meneses has returned from the paternity list, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back in the lineup for TOR at DH. Tommy Edman left early yesterday with abdomen soreness and won’t start today.
- The Mets have a log jam at 2B/3B/DH/LF, as McNeil, Baty, Escobar, Vientos, Pham, Canha, and Vogelbach are all possibilities against righties to fill those four spots. McNeil and Baty should be locks to take two of those spots most days, while Vientos will DH and Canha will play LF today.
- Manny Machado has a small fracture in his left hand and is going on the IL. Look for Kim to get most of the 3B starts and hit high in the order against lefties like tonight. Joey Bart is heading to the IL with a groin strain, and switch-hitting Patrick Bailey has been called up and could start tonight and most days now. Max Muncy is getting a day off for LAD, so Taylor will play 3B and Outman is in there vs. a lefty.
- There are a lot of options for “top stack” today, but I’ll go with the Rangers at home against a young righty making his MLB debut. Karl Kauffmann is in his third year at AAA, and has amassed a 6.00 ERA so far, including a 7.78 ERA this season. In 36.3 IP this year, he’s allowed a .372 average to lefties and a .309 average to righties, along with 5 HR’s and 12 walks. This is one of the toughest spots for an opposing SP, as the Rangers at home this season are 4th in HRs, 5th in AVG, 3rd in OPS, 3rd in SLG, and 3rd in runs scored. The Dodgers against Matz are my next favorite stack, followed by the Blue Jays against Gibson, the Cubs against Suarez, and the Astros against Waldichuk.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Just based on the available options, his talent and upside, and the matchup compared to other playable SPs, Sandy Alcantara ($10,400) is my top choice for cash game SP against SF. He’ll be in a pitchers’ park, against an offense that is third in the league in strikeouts, and just lost one of their top run producers in Pederson. He’s also $600 cheaper than another strong cash game SP in Joe Ryan ($11,000), so I’ll happily take the salary savings for just as much upside in a better matchup. Anthony DeSclafani ($9,100) is coming off a couple of rough outings, but like Alcantara, he gets a nice matchup today in a pitchers’ park, against a Miami offense with one of the lowest projected run totals of the slate. Snell ($8,900), Kikuchi ($8,800), and Kopech ($8,500) are other SPs I want exposure to in GPPs. For super cheap, Bielak ($7,000) is worth having some shares of as any SP against OAK can always put up a strong line.
- Corey Seager ($3,000) is the first bat I’m locking in to cash games, as he remains at his cheapest salary of the season against a rookie SP allowing a .372 average to lefties in AAA. Nate Lowe ($3,200) is also one of my favorite plays for the same reasons, while Garcia ($4,100) and Jung ($3,000) are how I’d round out a full TEX stack, if you go that route in cash games.
- Houston is the only other team besides Texas currently with a projected run total above 5.4, so I definitely want some exposure to them in cash games. Alex Bregman ($3,000) and Kyle Tucker ($3,100) both remain way too cheap and are cash game locks. Meanwhile, Jose Altuve ($3,400) is a top 2B target as he will get his leadoff spot back right away. Jose Abreu ($2,400) is going to have a breakout game eventually and his price continues to stay pretty much free, and he’ll really help you fit in Alcantara with some expensive bats.
- Toronto should put up some runs on Gibson, and the pair of George Springer ($2,800) and Daulton Varsho ($2,800) just continue to be too tempting at these low of prices. After TEX and HOU exposure, I will do my best to get at least one of these guys in an OF spot in my main build. JD Martinez ($3,100) and Chris Taylor ($2,800) are another cheap mini stack I don’t mind in cash games, if you want some LAD exposure.
- More cheap value bats I like today include Riley Greene ($2,800), Jeimer Candelario ($2,800), Seiya Suzuki ($3,100), Kyle Schwarber ($3,000), Trea Turner ($2,900), Steven Kwan ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,300), Tim Anderson ($2,800), Carlos Correa ($2,900), and Kyle Garlick ($2,400).
- Same story for Sandy Alcantara ($9,800) as he’s the second most expensive SP, but still my preferred play between he and Ryan ($10,300) if you only use one in your main build. For SP2, I’m expecting a lot of people to go with Bielak ($6,200) and hope for the best against Oakland, although I think I would rather take a chance on Jake Irvin ($6,700) against DET for just a bit more salary and likely lower ownership. Michael Kopech ($7,400) is another solid option for cheap, but right now I’m still looking to jam in Ryan with Alcantara for maximum upside at the SP spot on DK.
- The Rangers are priced up compared to FD, but I still love the salary of Nate Lowe ($4,200), Jonah Heim ($3,900), and Ezequiel Duran ($2,800), and I will do my best to get in Seager ($4,800) and/or (Garcia ($5,100).
- Jose Abreu ($2,700) is the clear top p/$ target from Houston, while Alex Bregman ($4,400) is still very affordable with huge upside today. Springer ($4,200) and Varsho ($4,100) remain my top targets from TOR, while Taylor ($3,200) and Vargas ($2,600) are where I’d go for value from LAD. I like taking higher than 8.5 fantasy points for Springer on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- I want to mention Jeimer Candelario ($3,100) as a top value 3B option today, as he will really help you fit in the stud SPs. Jeimer has 2+ hits in each of his last four games including five extra-base hits and just one strikeout in that span. Brett Baty ($3,100) is another great value 3B option if you’re looking for a little more HR upside.
- The White Sox have a pretty high 4.85 run total today against Greinke, so if you’re looking for some cheap exposure from them I’d go with Andrew Benintendi ($3,200), Andrew Vaughn ($2,600), or Gavin Sheets ($2,500) to fill a final cash game spot or two.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!