MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, September 1st
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, September 1st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
September is welcoming us with one of the biggest slates of the season, as we have 14 games in play, with only the Cubs and Reds off the main slate as they have a doubleheader before lock.
Rosters have also expanded from 26 to 28, so we saw a lot of prospects being called up the last couple of days, and teams with nothing to play for are beginning to turn to evaluation mode.
Coors Field is also in play just to make this slate even more wild, with the Blue Jays in town as the clear top offense to target today, especially with their way too low salaries on both sites.
With 28 pitchers to choose from, we are loaded with aces and value options, so let’s get to some of my favorite MLB DFS picks along with today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- This is one of the cleanest weather days I can remember for such a huge slate, as there is absolutely zero rain concerns anywhere, and pretty much every game has insignificant wind.
- TOR/COL is our warmest game with temps high 80s at first pitch, and a slight breeze out to center. BOS/KCR has the next best hitting conditions, with temps in the mid 80s and a 9mph right to left cross breeze.
- MIA/WSH, TBR/CLE, SEA/NYM, DET/CHW, and PIT/STL will all be in the mid to low 70s with no significant wind. SFG/SDP, LAA/OAK, and ATL/LAD will be in the high to mid 60s, and each will have 6-10mph wind blowing out.
- Today’s dome games are BAL/ARI, NYY/HOU, PHI/MIL, and MIN/TEX.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Jorge Soler remains out for Miami, so Burger will hit 3rd and DH with Hampson joining the lineup at 3B. The Nats are giving Vargas a day off and hitting newly promoted Blankenhorn a start in LF hitting fifth, with Dom Smith all the way down to 8th.
- Julio Rodriguez is back in the SEA lineup after sitting the last two games.
- The Mets are calling up top prospect Ronny Mauricio, who can play a variety of positions and bats switch, so we should see him find a spot in the lineup regularly the rest of the season. Brett Baty is also coming up again, and should see regular 3B starts against righties.
- Javier Baez remains out for Detroit along with Baddoo, so McKinstry will hit leadoff and Short will handle SS.
- KC is calling up their #5 prospect Nick Loftin, who can play a variety of infield positions, and he’ll tart today hitting eighth.
- The Yankees are going full evaluation mode as they continue to fall in the standings, and are calling up outfielder Jasson Dominguez and catcher Austin Wells. Dominguez should be a regular starter as he is a switch-hitter, while Wells is a lefty who should get plenty of starts against righties. NYY also put Bader on waivers and he went to the Reds.
- The Angels are also in full evaluation mode after putting Renfroe and Grichuk on waivers a couple of days ago, although Grichuk went unclaimed and will remain an Angel, but Renfroe is going to the Reds. They’re also calling up SS prospect Kyren Paris, who should be the regular starter for now.
- Lars Nootbaar will be be activated off the IL, and he’ll get his leadoff spot back immediately against the righty Keller. Edman will move back to the bottom third of the order.
- Toronto is far and away my top stack today, as they are just flat out too cheap on both sites given the great hitting weather in Coors Field against a mediocre righty in Flexen. The Red Sox are my favorite stack outside of Coors, as they also get great hitting weather in KC against Lyles, who has given up 4+ ER in each of his last five starts. HOU is another strong stack who could put up a crooked number at home against the inconsistent Rodon, and I like both teams in the BAL/ARI game as stacks to have exposure to.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Touki Toussaint ($7,000) is coming in as our top p/$ SP, as he draws a nice home matchup with DET, and he’s gone for 30+ FP in four of his last five starts. If the TOR bats were priced correctly, then I’d consider Toussaint for cash games, but today he’s just a high-upside GPP play for me. JP Sears ($7,600) is another cheap SP I like having some GPP exposure to.
- For cash games, we are loaded with great options. I’d expect all of Scherzer, Peralta, Glasnow, Wheeler, Verlander, Gilbert, and Senga to be used across peoples’ main builds. Scherzer ($11,000) is who I’m rolling with in cash games. He gets a rematch with the Twins, who he started against six days ago, going for 49 FP and 10 strikeouts. If you wanted to save a bit more salary, then Verlander ($10,300) would be my pick, while Gilbert ($9,800) is my favorite sub-$10k cash game target.
- I’m going to try to fit a full TOR stack with Scherzer in cash games, as none of their projected starters are over $3,800. George Springer ($3,600) is my favorite bat of the slate and the first guy I’m locking. Following him Davis Schneider ($3,400), who will hit second today, is on a six game hit streak with 4 HR’s, and is hitting .426 since being called up. Daulton Varsho ($3,000) is my favorite value to target, while Guerrero ($3,800) to complete the full stack still leaves over $2,500 for each of the remaining four hitters to fill.
- Casas ($2,900) remains at a fantastic price and is my favorite BOS bat for cash games as he’ll hit cleanup today. Duvall ($3,200) and Yoshida ($3,100) continue to swing red-hot bats and also remain excellent value targets, so if you leave off Guerrero from TOR, it should be pretty easy to do a 3-3 TOR/BOS cash game build with a top SP.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Duvall on Underdog, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- I also want to mention the Marlins as a place to go for value, starting with Jazz Chisholm ($3,000), who should be at least $3,500 given his HR and SB upside. Josh Bell ($2,800) is coming off a three-hit game and will be looking for some revenge against his former Nationals team, and Jake Burger ($3,000) is a great 3B value option hitting behind Bell and Chisholm for a big upside mini-stack for cheap.
- Scherzer ($11,000) remains my top cash game SP, and I will do my best to pair him with Verlander ($9,800), who I think is underpriced against a Yankees lineup that will likely be full of young guys with high strikeout upside. Keller ($8,000), Paxton ($7,500), Sears ($6,500), and Toussaint ($6,000) are my favorite value SPs worth having GPP exposure to.
- Toronto bats remain underpriced on DK, starting with Springer ($5,100) who I’m locking in first. Varsho ($3,900) is the next guy I’m locking in, followed by Schneider ($4,800) and if I can fit him Guerrero ($5,500).
- Boston bats are priced up compared to FD, but I still like using at least one of Yoshida ($4,700), Duvall ($4,900), or Casas ($4,300). Bell ($3,700) and Burger ($4,100) are my favorite values from Miami, and I’ll also include Sanchez ($2,800) if you need an OF under $3k.
- Jose Abreu ($3,000) is the best way to get some cheap HOU exposure, and some more value bats I like today include Nelson Velazquez ($3,000), Brendan Rodgers ($3,400), Patrick Bailey ($3,300), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100), and Ryan O’Hearn ($3,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!