MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, April 17
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, April 17th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’re starting the week with a solid eight-game slate that used to be nine before PHI/CHW got postponed due to inclement weather. Jacob deGrom headlines the pretty strong SPs going today in a rematch with KC, who he dominated last start, while Coors Field headlines the bats with a whopping 12 run game total currently.
Some player headlines include the return of Max Fried for the Braves and the promotion of Bretty Baty for the Mets, who should be in the lineup today against a righty. Plenty of more news and notes to talk about, along with some MLB DFS picks, so let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- After some very hot games over the weekend, we’re back to cooler temps in most places. TEX/KC and PIT/COL are the warmest weather games, with temps in the mid 60s, while the rest of the outdoor games will be in the 50s.
- The most wind will be in STL, OAK, and LAD with all seeing around 10-13mph blowing out. TOR/HOU & MIL/SEA are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Alec Burleson left yesterday’s game with a shin contusion but is in there today at DH hitting second. Paul Goldschmidt is getting a day off, so Donovan will play 1B and Contreras will move up to third in the order.
- Chas McCormick remains out for Houston so Dubon will remain in the leadoff spot and Meyers will be in CF and hit 8th.
- PIT and COL are both facing lefties, so look for righty heavy lineups from each, and pretty much any bat from this game is in play as it has a run total currently more than three runs higher than any other game on this slate.
- Jesse Winker is dealing with oblique soreness that he said was due to coughing so much as he dealt with bronchitis. He’ll likely be out today with a chance to return to the lineup tomorrow for the Brewers, so Brosseau is likely to continue to start today.
- The Rangers are giving Adolis Garcia a day off, so Jung will move up to cleanup. They are also moving Jankowski up to 2nd in the order and Smith down to 7th.
- Esteury Ruiz looks like the every day leadoff man for Oakland now as he’s there again for the second game in a row against a righty. Tony Kemp is down to 5th in the order, while Laureano and Peterson are getting days off.
- Brett Baty was called up by the Mets and will likely be the everyday starter against righties, and may even get starts against lefties over Escobar if his bat stays hot.
- Will Smith went on the 7-day concussion IL, so either Austin Barnes or Austin Wynns will start at catcher for LAD for the next week (Wynns is catching today). LAD will also mix their order up a bit with Taylor hitting cleanup today.
- They’re going to be chalky, but the Rockies are the clear highest-upside stack today, hitting at home against the soft-throwing lefty Rich Hill. They currently have almost a 6.5 team total which is almost two runs higher than any other team besides Pittsburgh today. PIT looks like the next best stack on paper as they have a 5.5 run total in Coors, but their opponent Freeland has been very solid in his first three starts allowing just 2 total ER, and he did face tougher offenses like SD and STL. I still like targeting Pirates bats in cash games, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t perform amazingly as a full stack. Other stacks I like today are PHI, TEX, STL, ATL, LAD, and CHC.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are some great SPs going today in Gausman, deGrom, Burnes, Fried, Javier, and May, but Jacob deGrom ($10,600) is still in a tier of his own and will be my SP1 in cash games. deGrom isn’t even the most expensive SP on FanDuel, and he draws a rematch with KC from his last start in which he put up 46 FP, so even if he is projected to be high-owned, I still won’t be fading his 70+ FP ceiling today.
- Corbin Burnes ($10,000) would be my next choice from the aces going today and is a phenomenal GPP play, along with Kevin Gausman ($11,000), who will lose a lot of ownership to deGrom as he’s $400 cheaper. Hayden Wesneski ($7,200) is my favorite SP from the cheaper options, as he’s in a great bounce-back spot against Oakland, who have been statistically one of the worst offenses in baseball this year.
- Kris Bryant ($3,100) and Ke’Bryan Hayes ($2,900) headline the top cash game bats today, as both are way too cheap with the platoon advantage hitting high in the order at Coors Field. Andrew McCutchen ($3,600) and CJ Cron ($3,800) are my next favorite targets for each team, and for cheap, I’m looking at Rodolfo Castro ($2,700), Jurickson Profar ($2,800), and Elehuris Montero ($3,000).
- Jordan Lyles has allowed 9 ER over his last two starts, so Texas is a team I like having some exposure to in cash games. Marcus Semien ($3,200) is my favorite 2B play of the slate at a pretty weak position overall today, and his bat has been on fire lately with 5 hits over his last 12 ABs, including a grand slam and just one strikeout. Travis Jankowski ($2,800) will hit second today and is a solid salary saver, while Nate Lowe ($3,300) and Josh Jung ($2,900) are both strong plays for the price if you need to fill one of their positions.
- Some other cheap mini-stacks I like today are Walker ($2,800) / Carroll ($3,100) / Smith ($2,000) —— Donovan ($3,000) / Burleson ($3,000) / Contreras ($2,400) —- Yelich ($3,100) / Contreras ($2,600) / Mitchell ($3,000) —- Albies ($2,800) / Grissom ($2,800) —- and Suzuki ($3,000) / Mancini ($2,500) / Wisdom ($3,200).
- Jacob deGrom ($10,100) remains the clear SP1 on DK, while Corbin Burnes ($8,800) is where I’m going for my SP2. Burnes looked like his usual dominant self last game, going for over 36 FP, and in a pitchers’ park today against Seattle and just a $300 price increase from his last start, I have to take advantage of this cheap of a salary for an SP with his upside. Wesneski ($6,300) remains my favorite cheap SP and is worth having exposure to in GPPs at that price.
- Kris Bryant ($5,500) is priced up big time compared to FD, but still has huge upside along with CJ Cron ($5,400), so I’d try getting at least one of them in your cash game lineup. Profar ($3,600), Diaz ($3,700), and Montero ($3,300) all come at excellent salaries and are top cash game targets.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes ($3,800) remains way underpriced like FD and is my favorite 3B play of the slate, while Santana ($3,400), Joe ($3,500), and Castro ($3,200) all make for solid value plays depending on your positional needs.
- Corbin Carroll ($3,100) somehow dropped back down to almost $3k from $3.5k last game after going for over 20 FP, and at this low of a salary, I can’t fade him in cash games. Carroll should be a $4k+ hitter by now on DK as he’s averaging over 11.4 FPPG over his last nine games, so I will absolutely keep using him at this cheap of a price for someone with one of the highest ceilings of the slate due to his elite SB and HR upside combo. Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Carroll today.
- Garrett Mitchell ($3,000) is similar to Carroll as he has big SB upside with a lot of pop in his bat for the occasional HR, and broke out of a mini-slump yesterday with two hits, a walk, and an SB. His price dropped $200 overnight. He draws a solid matchup against the righty Flexen today, so if you need another cheap OF bat to complete a lineup he is a top option today at this low of a price.
- More cheap bats I like today include Trayce Thompson ($2,900), Chris Taylor ($3,500), Brett Baty ($2,000), Esteury Ruiz ($2,800), Trey Mancini ($2,700), Vaughn Grissom ($3,100), Rowdy Tellez ($3,500), Alec Burleson ($3,400), Pavin Smith ($2,800), Josh Jung ($3,600), and Travis Jankowski ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!