MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, April 3
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, April 3rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Every team is playing today, but there are four earlier games not on the main slate. So we have 11 games to work with. There is no NBA happening today, so there’s plenty of time to look at stats from over the weekend, break down matchups today, and of course, take in every piece of content on RG to get some great MLB DFS picks.
My initial reaction to today’s slate is that pitching will be our weakest selection to choose from so far this year, as most teams are on their third or fourth starter. But there are still a handful of guys that can put up big lines. This also means there are more offenses likely to score a bunch of runs, so we should see a more diverse percentage of player and stack ownership with so many top options to choose from.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- No rain to worry about today, but wind will be a factor in a bunch of games. PHI/NYY will have around 10mph winds blowing in from right, and TOR/KC will have 10mph winds blowing in from left center. ATL/STL, PIT/BOS, and TB/WSH will all see 10+ mph winds blowing out to left.
- The three California games will have the most wind of the slate, as ARI/SD will see 20mph winds blowing in from left, with COL/LAD seeing slight stronger winds of 25-30mph in from left. CLE/OAK will have 15-20mph winds blowing out to right.
- Overall, the best hitting conditions today will be ATL/STL with 70 degree temps, TB/WSH with temps in the high 60s, and CLE/OAK getting a bump with wind even though it will still be cold in the low 50s. BAL/TEX, DET/HOU, and LAA/SEA are today’s dome games.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- We’ve seen most teams’ lineups against a righty and a lefty SP, so most projected lineups are pretty similar to the one they used against the last pitcher they faced of the same handedness. We only have four lefties going today of the 22 main slate pitchers, so most lineups will be the typical one against righties.
- The five lineups facing lefties are PHI, HOU, SEA, and ARI. Harrison, Sosa, and Pache are strong candidates to start again for Philly after they faced a lefty last night. Houston is actually pretty similar against righties and lefties as the bottom half of their order is mostly righties anyways. Seattle will likely see Pollock, Murphy, and Haggerty in for the lefties Kelenic, Wong, and La Stella. Arizona is projected for the same lineup they used last game against a lefty, with Longoria in for Rojas and Lewis in for Thomas.
- We’ll see if Brandon Lowe is back in the lineup with his toe injury, and Corey Dickerson landed on the IL and will be out for WSH with Vargas or Garrett likely starting for him. Jurickson Profar debuted for COL yesterday and should continue to hit leadoff, and Muncy could return for LAD after taking a ball to his nether regions a couple games ago.
- My favorite stacks are BOS, LAD, and HOU as they are in their own tier as far as upside goes today. All three are at home, facing a mediocre pitcher, and currently have team totals above five. There are at least seven other offenses I like stacking in some capacity today, but I’ll narrow my next three favorite stacks down to NYY, TBR, and SDP.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- About 1/3 of the SPs are $9k or higher, while six SPs are $7k-$8k, and seven SPs are under $7k which is the most I can remember in a long time. None of the pitchers under $9k are standing out as potential cash game targets, as most are facing very tough offenses or just don’t have the floor/upside combo I’m looking for. Zach Plesac ($7,400) and Kutter Crawford ($7,000) are probably the most likeliest to put up decent lines, as they face weak opponents in OAK and PIT respectively if you want to take a shot on them in GPPs.
- Jose Berrios ($9,000) is the cheapest SP I’d consider in cash games, as he faces a weak KC offense and will have slight wind blowing in behind him. Hunter Brown ($9,100) will surely get some ownership as he currently has the 2nd highest projection on FD and gets a Detroit team that’s scored three total runs in their first three games. I do have some concerns about how many pitches Brown will get today, but even if he is somewhat limited he could still payoff that salary with such a great matchup. Right now my favorite cash game SP is George Kirby ($10,000), as he gets to pitch at home, has one of the highest projected floors of the slate, and his opponent LAA currently has a team total of 3.2, which is even lower than Detroit.
- Boston is the first team I’m targeting in cash games, as most of their bats remain underpriced. Rafael Devers ($4,000) could be the highest-owned player of the slate, so the only case for fading him is to be different than most of your cash game opponents. Alex Verdugo ($3,400), Masataka Yoshida ($3,200), and Adam Duvall ($3,300) are all excellent OF plays, and I will likely have at least two of them in my main build.
- LAD and HOU are other offenses I’m prioritizing some exposure to in cash games, with Freddie Freeman ($3,700), Max Muncy ($3,200), JD Martinez ($2,900), Jeremy Pena ($3,000), and Jose Abreu ($3,300) my favorite group of bats to choose a few players from depending on your salary and positional needs.
- More value bats that I’m considering in cash games include Giancarlo Stanton ($3,200), Brandon Lowe ($3,000), Josh Jung ($2,700), Kyle Lewis ($2,400), Trent Grisham ($2,700), and Jake Cronenworth ($2,900).
- George Kirby ($8,000) is just way too cheap for someone with his upside and will absolutely be my SP1 on DK today. Hunter Brown ($7,400), Drew Rasmussen ($8,100), and Jose Berrios ($9,100) are guys I’m considering for my SP2 depending on the bats I end up using, but right now I’m leaning towards Berrios, as I like the pitching conditions he’s in against a KC offense that’s scored four total runs over their first three games. Kutter Crawford ($5,800) is one of two SPs under $6k, so if you really want to stack big bats I don’t mind punting with him as he has a good chance at 20+ FP against PIT, and will likely get strong run support behind him.
- Adam Duvall ($3,700) is going to get a big bump in salary any day now as he’s 7 for his last 10 with two HRs, but today is not that day as he remains extremely underpriced hitting in the heart of the order on my favorite offense today. Triston Casas ($2,600) would be next favorite value from Boston, while Rafael Devers ($5,900) is clearly the best spend up for them.
- One guy standing out to me today is Steven Kwan ($3,800), as he offers great OBP along with SB upside, and he should easily be a $4,500+ guy as the season goes on and he continues to put up 15+ FP games. Seth Brown ($3,200) is another cheap OF I really like as his ability to hit for power along with some SB upside gives him a really strong floor/ceiling combo at a great price. Kyle Lewis ($2,300) is my top “punt” option at OF likely to hit leadoff for ARI today.
- Before they both get too expensive as the season goes on, Randy Arozarena ($5,100) and Wander Franco ($4,700) are my favorite mini-stack of the slate, as both offer a rare combo of elite power and speed. TB should put up some runs hitting in nice weather against a mediocre righty in Trevor Williams, and both Arozarena and Franco offer multi-HR upside along with multi-SB potential, which gives each two of the highest ceilings of any bats today.
- Other cheap bats I like today include Trent Grisham ($3,900), Brandon Lowe ($3,700), Josh Jung ($2,800), Alec Bohm ($3,600), Daulton Varsho ($3,800), and Michael Harris ($3,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!